Whether it can bring real benefits to all parties will determine if new energy heavy trucks can overcome the scale-up threshold.

Author | Qingchun

In 2025, the domestic new energy heavy truck market will experience explosive growth. According to data from China Commercial Vehicle Network, sales of new energy heavy trucks will exceed 230,000 units for the year, marking a year-on-year increase of 182%, with industry penetration nearing 30%. In closed scenarios such as ports, steel plants, and mining areas, electric heavy trucks are rapidly replacing traditional diesel models.

Policy subsidies and vehicle purchase tax exemptions, combined with local carbon neutrality and green freight transformation goals, have collectively propelled the sector into a rapid growth phase.

Amidst the boom, a turning point has arrived. In 2026, the industry faces its first major test following the reduction of policy support. In February, sales of new energy heavy trucks declined year-on-year, ending nearly three years of high growth.

As policy incentives gradually fade, underlying industry contradictions have surfaced: widespread hesitation among buyers, lagging development of energy replenishment infrastructure, and persistently low freight rates. Meanwhile, cost reductions driven by technological advancements have triggered intense price competition.

Electric heavy trucks can save over RMB 1 in energy costs per kilometer compared to diesel trucks. However, where do these tangible savings ultimately flow—to drivers, shippers, freight platforms, or vehicle manufacturers? This battle will not only determine whether new energy heavy trucks can overcome the scale-up threshold but also reshape the profit landscape of the entire freight industry.

Policy Incentives Fade, Market Competition Intensifies During Window Period

The rapid growth of new energy heavy trucks has always been driven by policy incentives. According to policies jointly released by the Ministry of Transport and the Ministry of Finance regarding the scrapping and replacement of old commercial vehicles, a maximum subsidy of RMB 140,000 per vehicle can be claimed for scrapping old trucks and purchasing new energy heavy trucks in 2025. Combined with the full exemption of purchase taxes for new energy commercial vehicles from 2024 to 2025, these dual benefits have significantly reduced purchasing costs, becoming the core driver of market expansion.

The situation changed completely in 2026. Under new regulations, the purchase tax exemption for new energy commercial vehicles has been reduced to a 50% reduction starting this year and will continue until 2027, with no cap on the exemption amount. For a 400 kWh electric tractor priced at approximately RMB 430,000, the purchasing cost will increase by about RMB 19,000 per vehicle under the new policy, with cost increases for high-end models reaching RMB 20,000 to RMB 30,000. While the 50% tax reduction does not mean a complete withdrawal of policy support, the intensity of incentives has significantly weakened, forcing the industry to shift its growth logic.

Sensing the narrowing policy window, major OEMs made concentrated efforts at the end of 2025. Leading companies such as Sinotruk, Shaanxi Automobile, FAW Jiefang, Sany Heavy Truck, and Yutong Heavy Truck launched multiple new energy products, including electric and hydrogen-powered models, to boost sales and capture market share.

Market segmentation has become the most prominent feature today. The three major closed transportation scenarios—steel, coal, and ports—are the core areas for new energy heavy truck penetration. As of May 2026, in Tangshan, a major steel hub, the penetration rate of electric heavy trucks has exceeded 40%, according to data from the Tangshan Logistics Industry Association. In Xiamen Port, electric heavy trucks account for over 30% of internal port transportation, as reported by the Xiamen Municipal People's Government Office.

In contrast, long-haul highway logistics faces challenges. Long-distance travel imposes strict requirements on range and energy replenishment efficiency. However, the current charging network is unevenly distributed with insufficient facility density. Additionally, the flexibility of long-haul routes and significant fluctuations in daily mileage make it difficult for electric heavy trucks to demonstrate their full lifecycle cost advantages. Closed scenarios, characterized by fixed routes, frequent round trips, and strict environmental regulations, are ideally suited for the current application conditions of new energy heavy trucks—advantages that long-haul logistics lacks.

Automakers are well aware of this. Even though the industry's foundation remains unstable, expanding scale before the complete withdrawal of policies is a consensus. The market volume accumulated early on will become a core asset for future market-based competition. According to a June 2026 research report by Huatai Securities, with rising international oil prices, the full lifecycle cost advantage of pure electric heavy trucks will continue to grow. It is expected that industry penetration will approach 37% this year, with sales increasing by 28% year-on-year.

The market generally expects that new energy heavy trucks will face short-term policy disruptions and growth pressures but will have broad long-term potential driven by economic efficiency.

Data also confirms the market's segmentation trend: In the first quarter of 2026, cumulative sales of new energy heavy trucks reached 43,908 units, up 45% year-on-year, largely driven by the overdraft of subsidy incentives at the end of the previous year and the statistics of lagging registrations in early 2026. By February, multiple pressures converged, with monthly sales falling to 7,435 units, down 9% year-on-year and 54% month-on-month. This marked the first year-on-year decline in the industry since 2023. However, thanks to early market penetration, new energy heavy trucks still accounted for 26.16% of the overall heavy truck market that month.

Independent auto analyst Zhong Shi stated that the adoption of new energy heavy trucks must initially rely on policy guidance before gradually transitioning to market-based competition. "Without subsidies and incentives, large purchasers would not hastily update their fleets." The combined effects of environmental regulations and carbon emission assessments continue to drive up the market share of electric heavy trucks, reflecting the interplay of multiple forces.

Driver Hesitation: More Than Just Cost Concerns

While automakers are busy expanding their market presence, frontline truck drivers are generally adopting a wait-and-see approach. A comprehensive assessment of costs, risks, and returns has made individual operators cautious about purchasing new energy heavy trucks.

Mr. Sun, a container trailer driver with 20 years of experience at Xiamen Port, has carefully calculated the costs. Currently, a new energy heavy truck costs around RMB 500,000, RMB 200,000 more than an equivalent diesel truck. Based on energy savings, the vehicle can save about RMB 100,000 annually, theoretically allowing for cost recovery in about two years. However, two major uncertainties in the current freight market make him hesitant: "If cargo volumes are insufficient and freight rates continue to decline, the payback period could be extended indefinitely."

Industry price wars have further heightened anxiety. Mr. Sun admitted that with both diesel and electric trucks in operation, slim operating margins continue to be squeezed, with freight rates dropping repeatedly. Many drivers who purchased vehicles on loan are trapped in a vicious cycle of "accepting low-priced orders and struggling to repay loans."

According to the China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing's 2025 Survey Report on Truck Drivers' Working Conditions, 55.11% of individual drivers wait more than five hours daily for cargo. Significant time spent waiting for cargo directly reduces the effective operating time of vehicles, undermining the energy cost advantages of new energy heavy trucks. For individual drivers, the primary concern when purchasing a new vehicle is not technological issues but the heavy asset risk.

Another concern is the depreciation of residual value due to rapid technological advancements. Power batteries, the most costly component of new energy heavy trucks, are also the fastest-evolving technology. Over the past three years, the energy density of lithium iron phosphate battery systems has increased from 140Wh/kg to over 160Wh/kg, with battery prices declining simultaneously. Given that heavy trucks have an operating lifespan of five to eight years, vehicles purchased today may lag behind newer models in terms of range and charging efficiency within two to three years, leading to significant depreciation in resale value.

Low-temperature range reduction further limits vehicle adoption in northern markets. In winter, reduced battery activity causes electric heavy trucks to lose 20% to 30% of their range. For time-sensitive long-haul logistics, this drawback is nearly fatal. In Beijing, for example, winter range loss directly increases unit transportation costs, erasing the economic advantages of electric trucks. This explains why new energy heavy trucks are concentrated in southern ports, while diesel trucks remain dominant in northern long-haul routes.

The shortcomings of the energy replenishment infrastructure pose a major bottleneck for the industry. As of the end of March 2026, the total number of charging stations in China exceeded 21 million, but high-power charging stations suitable for heavy vehicles and open to the public account for less than 25%. Most existing charging facilities serve passenger vehicles, making it difficult for heavy trucks to park or requiring excessively long charging times.

An official from Sinotruk estimated that fully charging an electric heavy truck with a 600 kWh battery takes 1.5 hours. In Zhong Shi's view, while the fuel refilling network has been developed over decades to achieve full coverage and instant replenishment, building an energy replenishment ecosystem for heavy trucks will be a lengthy process, necessitating prioritized deployment along busy and profitable routes. For individual drivers with unpredictable routes, energy replenishment anxiety directly impacts transportation efficiency and income. A one-hour charging wait is a significant cost for drivers who rely on high mileage for earnings.

Despite external risks, the economic case for electric heavy trucks is not unfounded. Based on container transportation operations at Xiamen Port, a traditional diesel heavy truck consumes about 35 liters of fuel per 100 kilometers. At a diesel price of RMB 7.5 per liter, the fuel cost per kilometer is approximately RMB 2. In contrast, an electric heavy truck's electricity cost per kilometer is only RMB 0.6 to RMB 0.8, with a maximum per-kilometer difference of RMB 1.4.

A senior logistics industry insider also shared with the Industrial Alliance that pilot data from the company's eight electric heavy trucks showed a more than 20% reduction in overall energy costs. Assuming an annual mileage of 100,000 kilometers per port vehicle, a single truck can save RMB 120,000 to RMB 140,000 in energy costs annually.

These significant savings are based on high operating hours. If a vehicle's daily mileage drops from 400 kilometers to 200 kilometers, the fixed cost per kilometer doubles, erasing the energy efficiency advantage. The normalization of "waiting for cargo" is the reality for most individual drivers.

This means that an individual driver purchasing a new energy heavy truck today must simultaneously bear four pressures: residual value risk due to battery technology advancements, operational risk from an inadequate energy replenishment network, operational limitations in low-temperature environments, and income reduction risk amid freight price wars. These issues span technology, infrastructure, and market rules and cannot be resolved through single-point optimizations. Their root cause lies in the immature state of the entire industrial ecosystem.

From Vehicle Competition to Ecosystem Competition

The layered predicament indicate that the competitive landscape for new energy heavy trucks is being rewritten. Single-vehicle parameters such as range, price, and power are no longer the decisive factors.

The aforementioned Sinotruk official stated bluntly that future competition in new energy heavy trucks will center on a comprehensive evaluation of full lifecycle costs, energy replenishment infrastructure, financial solutions, after-sales service, and scenario-based operational capabilities. In an industry operating on thin margins, a well-developed supporting ecosystem is essential for helping drivers, fleets, and platforms navigate market cycles.

Some innovative companies in the industry have begun exploring new operational models, such as driver partnerships. Unlike traditional vehicle affiliation models, the partnership model emphasizes division of labor: platforms secure stable cargo sources and build supporting services, while drivers focus on transportation execution, with all parties sharing the benefits. Cargo sources primarily rely on fixed factory supply chains and port import/export trailer operations—scenarios with stable routes and cargo volumes that align perfectly with the optimal application scenarios for new energy heavy trucks.

However, this model has clear limitations. It requires drivers to accept unified dispatching from the platform, relinquishing the flexibility of independent order acceptance. It remains unknown how many of China's 38 million truck drivers are willing to adopt this operational shift.

For "guerrilla-style" drivers who rely on freight platforms for orders and operate on scattered routes, the partnership model is difficult to replicate. On one hand, high asset investments bring risks; on the other hand, fragmented cargo sources cannot support asset value, leaving the industry at a crossroads.

Technology routes are also diverging in the long-haul sector. Zhong Shi analyzed that hydrogen heavy trucks may emerge as a key direction for long-haul logistics' new energy transformation, offering advantages in replenishment speed and range. Methanol-powered vehicles also show potential, with refueling methods similar to diesel trucks and better low-temperature adaptability, making them more viable in northern regions such as Northeast and Northwest China. While neither technology has achieved large-scale commercialization yet, they provide diverse options for the industry's long-term development.

The industry generally believes that it will take at least five years to fully develop a dedicated energy replenishment network for new energy heavy trucks and three years for battery technology to stabilize. Rebuilding confidence among drivers depends on the maturation of these foundational elements.

"The transition to new energy heavy trucks seems challenging, but by addressing pain points step by step, a complete industrial ecosystem will eventually take shape," said multiple industry practitioners, expressing optimism about the sector's long-term development.

Today, the industry's most critical and unresolved question remains: Can the substantial annual energy cost savings achieved by new energy heavy trucks be translated into real income for drivers, or will they continue to be eroded by price wars and declining freight rates within the freight industry?

Compared to hardware shortcomings such as battery technology advancements and energy replenishment infrastructure development, the restructuring of the freight industry's profit distribution mechanism represents the deepest and most challenging reform for the new energy heavy truck transition.

While technology can continuously advance and infrastructure can be gradually improved, if industrial benefits do not flow to frontline operators, the large-scale adoption of new energy heavy trucks will never truly materialize. The outcome of this multi-stakeholder battle will ultimately determine the direction of China's heavy truck industry transition.

Data Sources:

China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing; China Commercial Vehicle Network; International Council on Clean Transportation; Compulsory Traffic Insurance Sales Data; Electric Vehicle Resources; China Automotive News; China Automotive Technology and Research Center

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