Among all the well-known domestic smartphone brands, which one boasts the lowest average price?

The first brand that comes to mind is undoubtedly Transsion. The average price of Transsion phones hovers around 300-400 yuan. However, considering that many of Transsion's offerings are feature phones, this price range is not particularly surprising.

The second brand that fits the bill is Xiaomi. Previously, Xiaomi's average phone price lingered around 1,000 yuan, but it surged to a record high of 1,351 yuan in the second quarter of 2026.

Yet, even at 1,351 yuan, Xiaomi's average price remains notably lower than those of OPPO, VIVO, Samsung, Apple, and Huawei.

This fact underscores that, despite Xiaomi's foray into high-end models like the Xiaomi 18 Pro and Xiaomi 18 Fold, the bulk of its sales still stems from low-end models, particularly those priced under $200.

However, the past year has witnessed a significant hike in memory chip prices, which has had a profound impact on smartphones priced under $200.

While Transsion's low unit price might seem vulnerable, many of its feature phones remain relatively unscathed because memory chips constitute a minimal cost in feature phones, whereas they account for a larger proportion in smartphones.

Given that Transsion doesn't have a vast array of smartphones, it fares relatively better. I believe Xiaomi is the most adversely affected.

According to data from industry agencies, over the next four years, from 2026 to 2030, the number of smartphones priced under $200 is projected to decline from 570 million units in 2025 to 340 million units, marking a decrease of approximately 230 million units or around 40%.

Moreover, this decline is expected to be a yearly occurrence, with drops anticipated in 2026, 2027, 2028, and so forth. The market share of smartphones priced under $200 is also forecasted to shrink from around 45% to roughly 25%.

What does this trend signify? It indicates that in the future, smartphones priced under $200 will become increasingly challenging to sell, and the market for low-end smartphones will continue to contract. This will pose a significant threat to smartphone brands that primarily cater to the low-end segment.

Take Xiaomi as a case in point. If the sales of smartphones priced under $200 plummet by 230 million units, how many fewer units will Xiaomi sell in this category? Will it be 10 million, 50 million, or 80 million units?

Of course, Xiaomi has the option to pivot towards the high-end market, focusing on models priced at $300, $400, or $500. However, these price brackets are already dominated by established players. The higher the price point, the greater the need for brand accumulation, reputation, and the challenge of wresting market share from competitors.

Therefore, there's no denying that the coming years will pose significant challenges for Xiaomi. The rising memory chip prices will make it arduous to sell low-end models in large volumes, while venturing into the high-end segment will entail substantial pressure. What course of action should Xiaomi take next?