2026 could well be described as a year when no phones sell well—except Apple, of course.

Data shows that across the first three quarters, nearly every major global phone manufacturer saw declines, with only Apple posting sales growth—and its market share naturally climbed even higher, making it the big winner of the memory price surge.

It's not just slab phones that are struggling to sell; foldable phones—a category that should have been more insulated from the downturn—are also faring poorly. In the Chinese market, sales have now fallen for four consecutive quarters.

As shown in the figure below, this is IDC tracking data. Since Q4 2025, the market has been in continuous decline: down 8.1% in Q4 last year, then down 29.9% in Q1 this year, down another 19.2% in Q2, and falling a further 32.7% in Q3.

Before Q3, many assumed foldable phones would stage a recovery. After all, foldables command high prices and high margins, which can absorb the impact of memory price increases, and foldable buyers tend to be less price-sensitive—so sales shouldn't have been hit too hard.

But unexpectedly, Q3 turned out to be the steepest decline in recent years, dropping by nearly a third—32.7%!

Why did it fall so badly? Some say that, in fact, many domestic users would only consider the iPhoneDuo, and everyone was waiting for the iPhoneDuo to launch—so Q3 saw a peak decline in existing foldable phones.

As we know, Apple released its first foldable phone, the iPhoneDuo, in September, but it wouldn't hit the market until October—in September, you couldn't buy one even if you wanted to.

So in September, many people held off on purchases, waiting for Apple's iPhoneDuo and refusing to buy anything else. This caused the entire foldable phone market to plunge in Q3—even though some domestic brands released foldables, they couldn't attract buyers.

After Apple's iPhoneDuo launched, it sold over 100,000 units in just 3 days. To this day, Apple's foldable phone remains highly sought after—one device is hard to find, with no stock offline.

If you order on the official website, the wait time is over 2 months, showing just how popular it is in China. This may indeed be the reason for the Q3 plunge—everyone was waiting for Apple.

Is it really true that everyone is waiting for Apple and refusing to buy non-Apple foldables? Once Q4 sales figures are published, everyone will understand. If Apple's sales surge while other domestic foldable phones perform mediocrely, then it can only mean there are too many Apple fans—and domestic phone makers really are no match for Apple.