Pepper's Failure: A Cautionary Tale for Xiaomi

07/25 2024 440

"Though millions stand against me, I will still go." These are the heartfelt words Lei Jun revealed at his 2024 annual speech, also a courageous expression of his determination to enter the automotive industry. However, the bionic humanoid robot, which was once hailed as a game-changer in his 2023 speech, was not mentioned this time, leading to speculation that Xiaomi is either biding its time or abandoning the project.

Until recently, Xiaomi Group, in collaboration with Wang Tianmiao and Beijing Academy of Artificial Intelligence, invested in embodied AI tech company "Xiaoyu Zhizao," which has completed a seed round of financing worth hundreds of millions of yuan.

The answer gradually emerged: Xiaomi's ambition to bet on the robotics race is still alive. However, the choice of embodied AI and specifically Xiaoyu Zhizao as the entry point seems to have deeper meanings.

"A Two-Way Journey" in the Era of Industry 4.0

It is understood that this is Xiaomi Group's first investment in an embodied AI enterprise. Nevertheless, Xiaomi has already showcased its embodied AI terminal product, the intelligent robot, to the public. For instance, the first bionic quadruped robot CyberDog in 2021 and the first full-sized humanoid bionic robot CyberOne in 2022.

So, why did Xiaomi still choose to invest in Xiaoyu Zhizao?

According to Tianyancha, Xiaoyu Zhizao is a large-model AI tech company focused on building an AI robot platform for industrial applications. Its core technology is creating embodied AI robots with "one brain, multiple forms," meaning using a highly generalized AI core to control robots of various forms in multiple scenarios.

Furthermore, Xiaoyu Zhizao recently completed another significant move after its establishment, forming a strategic partnership with Panasonic's joint venture Tangshan Panasonic to jointly develop advanced large-model AI welding robots. It is reported that this "one brain, multiple forms" concept will also be applied to the AI welding robots.

From Xiaoyu Zhizao's core technology and development priorities, it aligns with Xiaomi Smart Factory's layout plan. So far, Xiaomi Smart Factory has introduced a full-link self-designed large die-casting equipment cluster and over 700 robots, automating the entire process from production to quality inspection, with a Xiaomi SU7 rolling off the line every 76 seconds.

It is evident that Xiaomi Smart Factory's high intelligence and digitalization in production are the entry points where Xiaoyu Zhizao can deeply integrate.

Xiaomi's Automobile Factory Assembly Workshop (Source: Xiaomi Automobile Official Website)

Notably, Xiaoyu Zhizao's founder Qiao Zhongliang was one of Xiaomi's founding members and was once in charge of MIUI development, overseeing products from MIUI 9 to MIUI 12 until he left Xiaomi in January 2023 to establish Xiaoyu Zhizao. As the saying goes, "Good soil should not be wasted on outsiders," Xiaomi's choice of Xiaoyu Zhizao is also a way to maximize its "internal resources."

Obviously, Xiaomi's investment in Xiaoyu Zhizao is a mutually beneficial two-way journey, but there may be more to Xiaomi's thinking behind this move.

Xiaomi's New Perspective on Application Scenarios Behind Embodied AI

Xiaomi has been laying out its smart robot business since 2015, initially investing in companies like Ninebot, Roborock, and FAORobot, and now making its first investment in embodied AI tech company Xiaoyu Zhizao. This transition also reveals other signals.

Looking back at Xiaomi's journey into smart robots. Initially, based on its consumer electronics background, Xiaomi chose to serve humans, with the preferred landing spots being households or service scenarios.

For example, CyberDog in 2021 emphasized its companion and greeting functions akin to a pet dog; while CyberOne, the humanoid robot in 2022, touted its "high EQ" speech emotion recognition and interactive abilities.

At that time, humanoid robot development companies had diverse visions. Boston Dynamics pursued extreme capabilities to surpass humans, while Tesla advocated for industrial scenarios, with humanoid robots replacing workers for repetitive tasks.

Although the market size of one or more robots per household seems more attractive than industrial applications when compared, this route ultimately proved to be a dead end.

Pepper, once highly anticipated by SoftBank Group, is a typical failure case.

SoftBank Group's Pepper Robot

Launched in 2015, Pepper was deployed in the service industry for reception and shopping guidance. In fiscal year 2015, SoftBank Robotics incurred a loss of $1 billion, ultimately producing only 27,000 units before announcing the cessation of production in 2020.

Pepper's failure stems from three "fatal flaws":

Firstly, as a household or service robot, it could not handle tasks beyond dialogue and movement. While suitable for reception and shopping guidance, its practical application scenarios were too limited, lacking exceptional value.

Secondly, the production cost was too high. Pepper's price tag of $30,000 per unit did not offer an advantage over human labor costs in similar scenarios.

Thirdly, the emotional interaction function was "non-existent." At that time, AI technology was not mature, and Pepper's dialogue commands were mostly pre-set, making real-world human-machine interaction unachievable.

Currently, Xiaomi's CyberOne robot also faces similar challenges, with a single-unit cost exceeding 600,000 yuan and inability to mass produce.

Therefore, it is foreseeable that the penetration of smart robots into households and service scenarios is still premature. Investing in Xiaoyu Zhizao and shifting to intelligent production in industrial scenarios represents Xiaomi's reassessment and adjustment of its old strategy.

Xiaomi Robots Officially Embark on the "Tesla Route"

After the pilot phase of Xiaomi robots in household service scenarios came to a temporary close, Xiaomi promptly adjusted its industrial strategy.

We observe that this is already a consensus in the robotics industry. Since the humanoid robot wave began in 2023, almost all humanoid robot companies have shifted their focus to industrial manufacturing, particularly favoring the automotive industry.

Tesla, which initially led this wave and advocated for industrial scenarios, released a video in May showcasing the latest progress of its humanoid robot Optimus, demonstrating its abilities to sort batteries, walk, and perform factory tasks.

Tesla's Humanoid Robot Optimus

Subsequently, in June, Beijing Xiaomi Robotics Technology Co., Ltd. officially moved to Xiaomi's automobile factory in Yizhuang, Beijing. Xiaomi's humanoid robot's landing in its own automobile factory is a "confirmed fact," signaling Xiaomi's official shift to Tesla's industrial manufacturing route.

With the recent explosion of AI, the accumulation of software and hardware technologies for humanoid robots has significantly improved, especially through technology transfer from the intelligent driving field, making humanoid robots feasible in terms of cost and capability.

Leading enterprises following this trend have gradually increased, with Agility Robotics, a humanoid robot company, partnering with Ford to introduce humanoid robots into automobile production lines; and UBTECH, China's "first humanoid robot stock," collaborating with NIO and Dongfeng Liuzhou Motor.

Among them, Tesla and Xiaomi are relatively unique as they have both robots and ready-made manufacturing scenarios, making data acquisition and training more convenient.

Lu Hanchen, Director of the High-Tech Robotics Industry Research Institute, also believes that in the medium to long term, with technological advancements and the opening of structured scenarios, industrial manufacturing and logistics sectors may see the possibility of localized deployment after obtaining more scenario dataset training.

The ready-made application scenarios and long-term investments in the robotics industry chain provide a solid foundation for Xiaomi's long-term expansion in the humanoid robot field.

Conclusion

Xiaomi's renewed focus on shifting the landing point of robots from household service scenarios to industrial manufacturing scenarios is a strategic move in line with the times.

Especially as the smartphone market turns red ocean, with incremental markets shifting to stock markets, Xiaomi, which has been highly dependent on its mobile phone business, undoubtedly needs to plan and prepare for the future in advance.

In such circumstances, Xiaomi's low-key bet on the robotics race and the exploration of industrial scenarios is not a sign of abandonment but rather "paving the way" for the future.

Source: Hong Kong Stocks Research Institute

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