TSMC takes another step forward in its international expansion! TSMC's Fab 21 chip factory in Arizona, USA, is scheduled to open on December 6, 2024.

Multiple US media outlets have hyped up the possibility of Morris Chang, Trump, and Biden attending together to witness this important commercial and geopolitical moment.

Will Trump and Biden appear together?

TSMC has not confirmed the news of Trump and Biden appearing together, and there are various opinions in the market about this.

One view is that it is unlikely for both Trump and Biden to attend simultaneously.

If TSMC invites Trump, it is unlikely to also invite Biden, and vice versa. Additionally, during his campaign, Trump repeatedly claimed that Taiwan had "stolen" the US's semiconductor business and criticized the Biden administration's "CHIPS Act" subsidies, emphasizing that "by raising tariffs to a certain level (extorting), chip manufacturers will automatically set up factories in the US." This shows a clear disagreement between the two.

Another view is that who attends is not the main focus; instead, attention should be paid to the real intention behind this publicity. The core demands of the two presidents are consistent.

On the morning of November 13, at the regular press conference of the Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council, a reporter asked about TSMC's agreement to suspend shipments of relevant chips to Chinese mainland customers starting from November 11 at the request of the US. What are the comments on this? The spokesperson of the Taiwan Affairs Office clearly responded that the relevant reports once again prove that the US is playing the "Taiwan card" to escalate tensions in the Taiwan Strait, with the aim of "containing China through Taiwan."

Sun Mingde, director of the Macroeconomic Forecast Center at the Taiwan Institute of Economic Research, believes that Trump's goal is not just TSMC but to transfer the entire supply chain to the US to help the relatively underdeveloped "Rust Belt" regions prosper again.

It is clear to everyone. Returning to the opening ceremony of TSMC Fab 21 in the US, regardless of whether one or two presidents attend or whether they send gifts instead of attending in person, the significance is the same: standing together in the face of common interests to enhance and expand the competitiveness of US chip production.

About TSMC Fab 21

The opening of TSMC Fab 21 is a testament to the effectiveness of the Biden administration's CHIPS and Science Act, which aims to promote the development of the US chip industry and enhance its global competitiveness. The opening ceremony of Fab 21 is scheduled for December 6, after the election dust settles, marking an important political strategic node.

The TSMC Fab 21 campus is planned to cost approximately $65 billion and will be built in phases. Currently, the company has received $6.6 billion in direct subsidies, $5 billion in loans, and potential 25% investment tax credits.

The first phase of Fab 21 will produce chips for Apple using technologies such as N5, N5P, N4, N4P, and N4X. The factory is expected to fully serve US customers by 2025, with the opening ceremony serving as a formal confirmation.

The second phase of the project will use N3 or N2 technology and is expected to operate from 2027 to 2028.

The third phase is expected to begin production by the end of this century or the beginning of the next decade, with technical details yet to be determined. The industry generally expects it may involve technology nodes at the 1nm level.

Will A-share semiconductor stocks surge collectively on that day? Not necessarily.

Some netizens believe that the participation of the two presidents in the opening ceremony of TSMC's US factory may lead to a collective surge in A-share semiconductor stocks.

The rationale is that TSMC's investment plan in the US has received direct subsidies, loans, and other support from the US government, and investors are confident in TSMC's long-term growth and profitability. Now, the joint attendance of the two US presidents reflects TSMC's important position in the global semiconductor supply chain and the importance attached to the semiconductor industry by all parties, thus leading to an overall bullish outlook for semiconductors.

However, professionals also point out that it is naive to suggest that a single event like the opening ceremony of TSMC's US factory can directly lead to a collective surge in the entire sector. The performance of the A-share market is influenced by multiple factors, including the macroeconomy, policy orientation, and market sentiment, making it impossible to make simple predictions. Investors need to exercise caution.