07/02 2025
403
For Apple, the iPhone remains irreplaceable and will continue to account for over half of the company's total revenue system for the foreseeable future, regardless of any new ventures in revenue diversification. To further boost revenue, focusing on the iPhone is the swiftest and most effective strategy, evident not only to users but also to Apple itself. Clearly, the foldable iPhone is a promising venture. Some might argue that since competitors have already entered this market, Apple is late to the game and may no longer hold an advantage in various aspects.
In reality, compared to the entire mobile phone user base, foldable phones still constitute a minuscule fraction to date. Even if Apple enters the market two years later, there is ample room for growth. Online reports have unveiled that Apple's research and development of the foldable iPhone commenced long ago. With ample technical expertise, the development has advanced to the prototype stage since June this year, signifying that the entire product development plan has substantively kicked off.
Nevertheless, to ensure stability, the entire prototype development phase will be divided into three stages, each lasting approximately two months. This indicates that the first foldable iPhone prototype will be ready by early next year. Upon completion of the prototype design, it will be handed over to the primary foundries (Foxconn and Pegatron) for testing, a process that will span about six months. This is a crucial stage before mass production as it will provide vital test data on the feasibility of producing the relevant models. Additionally, it involves meticulous testing of all components and system functionalities.
Once a smartphone transitions from prototype development to the engineering verification stage, the testing scope becomes extremely extensive. If all goes well, mass production will commence after roughly six months of engineering verification. Based on this timeline, there is a strong likelihood that the foldable iPhone will debut alongside the iPhone 18 series next year, potentially even as the grand finale with a "one more thing" announcement.
According to reports, Apple harbors high expectations for the sales performance of the foldable iPhone. The initial shipment target for the first-generation model is set at around 7 million units, which may seem ambitious to outsiders. Why is this? Statistics from professional agencies reveal that global shipments of foldable phones were approximately 18.8 million units in 2024 and are projected to reach 19.5 million units in 2025. This implies that with its maiden entry into the foldable phone market, Apple aims to capture a significant share of the market.
To ensure the smooth launch of the foldable iPhone, Apple has made certain adjustments to its product planning. Specifically, the development of a foldable iPad has been temporarily suspended. Frankly, I personally believe it would be fine even if it were permanently canceled. Once unfolded, the foldable iPhone can essentially serve as an iPad, rendering a foldable iPad redundant.
Naturally, the price is a major concern for everyone. Personally, I believe the starting price will not dip below 12,000 yuan. What do you all think?