Two-thirds of October have passed, and the atmosphere for Singles' Day promotions is heating up.

For the mobile phone industry, Singles' Day is not only an opportunity for major manufacturers to offer discounts and promotions but also an important node for launching new products in the second half of the year.

On the 19th, vivo officially launched its new flagship X200 series, equipped with the Dimensity 9400 processor, priced at 4,299 yuan for the standard version and 5,299 yuan for the Pro version.

The day before the new phone's launch, the weekly mobile phone activation rankings for week 41 of 2024 were released, with vivo ranking fourth, falling out of the top three. It's worth noting that this ranking is compiled by a third party based on public data and may differ slightly from actual figures, but the changes can still provide new insights.

For example, due to the launch of the iPhone 16 series, Apple's market share reached a weekly record high in 2024. Another example is that while vivo's numbers may not look good, with the release of its new phone, monthly sales figures may actually increase.

However, for vivo, weekly performance figures may not be as crucial. What matters more is whether it can maintain its advantage in the 3,000-5,000 yuan price range. As Xiaomi further widens the gap with vivo and OPPO, how can vivo gain the upper hand in competition with its sibling companies?

These questions are perhaps more pressing.

"Unable to compete with Xiaomi, vivo seeks growth from OPPO?"

vivo's choice to launch its new product during Singles' Day is intriguing.

On the one hand, the wave of phone upgrades attracts more attention, and on the other, vivo can leverage the launch of its new phone to discount older models and clear inventory during Singles' Day promotions.

By combining the launch of new models with discounts on older ones, vivo aims to boost sales in the second half of the year. Its marketing strategy seems well thought out.

Achieving sales growth in the second half of the year is crucial for vivo.

Externally, after setbacks in the Indian market, vivo clearly needs to focus more on its domestic business. While competition in the domestic market is fiercer, the market size remains substantial. As the mobile phone market becomes increasingly competitive, the main players have narrowed down to Huawei, Xiaomi, OPPO, vivo, and Honor, maintaining a stable base for competition.

Internally, on August 1, Li Jingwen, former Vice President of Sales and Marketing for vivo's China region, resigned for personal reasons. According to Tianyancha, Cheng Gang took over as President of vivo's China region in November last year, concurrently serving as President of iQOO's global market. There have been frequent changes in vivo's senior management.

Following the frequent turnover of senior executives in vivo's China region, the pressure falls on Founder Shen Wei to find the right direction and lead vivo forward with conviction.

Winning a "victory" is undoubtedly the best way to unite the internal team.

The question is, can vivo win this sales battle?

Let's start with a look at some market data changes.

According to Techinsights, in the second quarter of this year, vivo shipped 13.1 million units, up 13.9% year-on-year, with a market share of 19.4%. OPPO (including OnePlus) shipped 11.2 million units, down 8.2% year-on-year, with a market share of 16.6%. Huawei shipped 10.4 million units, up 56.8% year-on-year, with a market share of 15.4%. Xiaomi shipped 10 million units, up 16.3% year-on-year, with a market share of 14.8%. Honor shipped 10.3 million units, down 4.6% year-on-year, with a market share of 15.3%.

Several insights can be gained from these figures:

vivo had the highest market share in the second quarter but failed to establish a significant advantage.

Among the fastest-growing brands, Xiaomi saw a 16.3% year-on-year increase in shipments, second only to Huawei.

Only two of the top five domestic brands saw a decline in shipments: Honor and OPPO.

Connecting these pieces of information, it becomes clear that most growth is coming at the expense of OPPO and Honor, and the gap between Xiaomi and vivo's shipment volumes is gradually narrowing.

It's worth noting that vivo's growth was primarily driven by its low-end Y series and high-end X series, while OPPO's premium strategy failed to boost shipments. In other words, vivo's growth in the second quarter effectively came from taking market share from OPPO.

In contrast, Xiaomi's flagship Mi 14 launch led to a surge in sales, followed by another boost when the Mi 13 was discounted. This caught competitors off guard.

As such, upcoming product launches are crucial for vivo.

Judging from the buzz generated by vivo's new product launch, major tech bloggers have released their reviews, creating a strong marketing push. While keeping up with the market's promotional strategies is essential, the ultimate test will be how well the new phone sells based on its features.

In terms of product features, the new vivo X200 series is well-equipped, with both the standard and Pro versions coming standard with the Dimensity 9400 processor. This high-end spec sheet continues vivo's tradition of packing in the best hardware.

However, the X200 series is still pricey.

The flagship vivo X200 Pro with 16GB+512GB retails for 5,999 yuan, while the entry-level 12GB+256GB version costs 5,299 yuan.

At first glance, this pricing strategy seems reasonable, as the iPhone 16 at a similar price point offers less memory and storage. This is a common tactic among domestic premium phone brands. However, for vivo's core user base, prices above 5,000 yuan are still considered steep.

On the one hand, while vivo's premium series boasts impressive hardware, its system UI and user experience have increasingly mimicked Apple's, adopting a more "Apple-like" style. From a user's perspective, if they're paying a similar price, why not just buy the original iPhone experience?

On the other hand, in addition to the newly launched X200 Pro, vivo also introduced the X200 Pro mini this year. Equipped with the same LYT-818 main camera as the X200 Pro and the same periscope telephoto lens as the X200, the mini version sports a 5,700mAh battery, short-focus fingerprint recognition, and USB 2.0.

From a hardware perspective, this model fits well into the niche market for "compact flagships." With limited competition in this segment, vivo's entry may be an attempt to replicate Xiaomi's success with the Mi 13 and Mi 14.

However, Xiaomi's success may be hard to replicate.

The success of the Mi 13 and Mi 14 is not solely due to their compact flagship positioning but also their aggressive pricing strategy, with discounts on older models after the launch of new ones. For compact phone enthusiasts, affordability is often a top priority.

If I'm already buying a mini version, why should I pay flagship prices?

For the "mini" variant, the starting price of the X200 Pro mini is still steep at 4,699 yuan for the 12GB+256GB version and 5,799 yuan for the 16GB+1TB version. While the size is comparable to the 16 Pro, it's hardly a "mini" device. The strategy of marketing a non-compact product to compact phone enthusiasts remains questionable.

Regarding pricing, domestic phone brands inevitably raise prices as they pursue premiumization. However, when companies prioritize high margins and compensate for product shortcomings through marketing, will consumers still be willing to pay the premium?

Time is running out for vivo to innovate

Technology companies generally adopt one of two underlying strategies: innovator or follower.

The innovator strategy is straightforward, exemplified by companies like Huawei, Apple, NVIDIA, and Tesla. However, this strategy requires sustained technological innovation, which is at the heart of Huawei's "wolf culture."

What is the follower strategy?

In essence, it involves replicating the successes of other companies and following in their footsteps. Whether entering the compact phone market or adopting an increasingly "Apple-like" approach, vivo has largely adopted a follower strategy, reflecting limited innovation capabilities.

In the mobile phone industry, vivo lacks significant technological innovation.

The two most valuable components of a smartphone are the chip and the operating system, both of which are dictated by suppliers. In reality, most domestic phone brands rely on "supply chain innovation" rather than true in-house innovation. For instance, the Dimensity 9400's superiority over the Snapdragon 8 Gen 2 is not a testament to vivo's innovation but rather to the technological prowess of its supplier.

At the system level, all players are essentially tinkering with Android, with minor differences in UI and interaction design. This homogeneity has become even more pronounced in recent years.

AI is another area where the mobile phone industry demonstrates its innovation capabilities.

"Developing AI technology is not about disrupting the industry but rather enhancing the user experience, which will ultimately shape the future landscape of the mobile phone industry," said Zhou Wei, Vice President of vivo and President of vivo AI Global Research Institute, in an interview.

While this statement holds truth, some may perceive it as a way for vivo to justify its lack of AI innovation. After all, rival companies have already started acquiring AI companies.

AI must enhance the user experience, but this goes beyond simply integrating AI features into phones. It requires "deep innovation."

Notably, vivo's new X200 series does incorporate AI features such as AI document scanning, AI search, and AI background replacement for ID photos. However, these features lack distinctiveness and are mostly mature solutions already available in the market, simply repackaged by vivo for its phones.

Objectively speaking, users don't prioritize AI capabilities unless they belong to a specific niche. Most people rarely use AI functions, except for AI algorithms in imaging technology, which may be used more frequently. However, users' perception of AI in computational photography is not strong.

In other words, users' current perception of AI features is relatively low.

Yet, AI is indeed a "disruptive" technology in the mobile phone industry, fundamentally changing smartphone interaction. However, vivo's AI capabilities are far from sufficient.

Last November, vivo released its self-developed basic large model, BlueLM. However, in September this year, some users reported that when asking vivo's smartwatch, "What should I do when I'm bored?" the watch responded with inappropriate suggestions like "playing with suicide" or "self-harm can be fun sometimes." Vivo promptly responded, attributing the response to erroneous information from the internet and stated that the technical team had fixed and upgraded the issue.

While it's never too late to rectify mistakes, blaming technical issues may suggest that vivo still has much to learn in the AI arena.

Objectively speaking, both vivo and OPPO are adept at product development, relying more on product definition than outstanding technological or innovation capabilities. However, in today's mobile phone industry, this may not be enough.

2024 is hailed as the first year of AI phones, with more manufacturers entering the AI race. It seems that time is running out for vivo to innovate.