The price keeps dropping.

Last month, Apple just released the latest iPad Pro 2024. To provide timely review guidance to fans who follow Leikeji, Xiaolei spent a huge sum of 16,599 yuan on the launch day and purchased a 13-inch 1T version of the iPad Pro M4.

After the review, Xiaolei originally intended to sell the almost-new iPad Pro to recoup some money. Unexpectedly, the price drop of this new model, which has been on sale for less than a month, exceeded imagination. Xiaolei priced it at 12,000 yuan on a second-hand platform, but no one showed interest for several days. Even a friend offered to lower the price by 500 yuan, arguing that there were already few users who bought the 1T version for personal use, and 11,500 yuan was already a very sincere price.

Image source: Xianyu

Unable to sell it on the second-hand platform, Xiaolei turned to a recycling platform, but the estimated price offered by the platform was even lower than the user's offer, directly reaching 11,147 yuan, with an additional 18% contribution from an exclusive coupon for first-time users. If calculated based on 11,500 yuan, the monthly depreciation rate of this 13-inch 1T iPad Pro M4, which has been in hand for just a month, is as high as 30%, and the price drop speed is comparable to that of a rocket.

Image source: Zhuanzhuan

Once upon a time, Apple products such as the iPhone and Apple Watch were the favorites of scalpers: limited supply, a large user base, and considerable speculation space, making them well-known "hard currencies" and almost guaranteed profitable deals. However, this situation no longer exists today.

Has anyone ever wondered why Apple products are no longer value-preserving?

The essence of value preservation lies in the supply-demand relationship

On the surface, official price cuts are the direct reason for the continuous price drops of Apple's core products. This June 18, there were quite a few news stories about Apple. Just one hour after the start of sales on Tmall, Apple's transaction volume exceeded 1.5 billion yuan. Not only on a single platform, but the iPhone almost dominated the top three spots in the cumulative mobile phone sales rankings on all e-commerce platforms. As of now, the top three spots in JD.com's mobile phone 618 cumulative sales rankings are still occupied by the iPhone 15 Pro Max, iPhone 15 Pro, and iPhone 15.

Did Apple's 618 sales performance do well? Indeed, it did very well, but it was achieved through price cuts. Taking the iPhone 15 128GB version as an example, the price on Tmall is 4,599 yuan, which is 1,400 yuan lower than the official Apple pricing; the price on JD.com for the iPhone 15 128GB version is 4,749 yuan, with an additional discount for PLUS members, saving an additional 40 yuan; for Pinduoduo, which is gaining momentum, the price for the iPhone 15 128GB version is 4,398 yuan.

Image source: Pinduoduo

The average price of the iPhone 15 series models is 1,000-2,000 yuan lower than the official starting price, which explains the frenzy among consumers. However, maintaining this situation in the long term is clearly not what Apple wants to see.

The iPhone has always been Apple's growth engine, and Apple delivered a good scorecard last year: iPhone global shipments exceeded Samsung for the first time, taking the sales crown; annual net profit exceeded 100 billion US dollars, earning a full profit.

However, there are still some small flaws visible on this nearly perfect scorecard. In Q4 2023, Apple's revenue in Greater China declined by 12.9% year-on-year, and with the continued efforts of domestic manufacturers, Apple's downturn in the domestic market in 2024 is still continuing.

One of the key factors in judging the competitiveness of flagship phones lies in price stability, and the price cuts of core products reflect that Apple's competitiveness is diminishing. Ultimately, the supply-demand relationship determines the value preservation rate, and when people no longer chase after it, it is only natural that Apple products are no longer value-preserving.

Incremental updates cannot retain users

In the field of consumer electronics, there has always been a saying, "Buy new, not old." Smartphones, computers, and other products usually bring some new changes with each generation update, at least in terms of performance, attracting users to buy the new models.

As various consumer electronics products mature, the update cycle of electronic products becomes faster and faster. When faced with a wide range of new products on the market, consumers tend to buy the latest models and ignore those "old" products, where "old" refers not only to the year of the product but also to the technology.

This phenomenon is particularly evident in the smartphone market, where the competition between Apple and Android camps has always been a risk indicator for the smartphone industry. Five years ago, Android phones followed Apple's upgrades; five years later, everything has reversed, with many new technologies, designs, and features first appearing on Android flagships, and Apple following suit.

Image source: Leikeji Photography

For example, when AI large models have already been implemented on Android flagship phones, and even mid-range and thousand-yuan phones are equipped with large models, Apple AI is still in the preheating stage. It was not until WWDC24 that Apple Intelligence was announced, and AI functions need to be unlocked in batches, with some functions perhaps not available until next year.

If in an era of strong demand for smartphones, the impact of Apple's lagging updates may not have been so significant. However, according to foreign analysis firm TechInsights, global smartphone replacement rates have been declining over the past decade. In 2023, the consumer replacement cycle further extended to a historical high of 51 months, equivalent to an average of over 4 years for each person to replace their phone.

The domestic market is relatively better, but the average consumer replacement cycle also exceeds 40 months, with many people replacing their phones at least every three and a half years.

In an environment of low replacement desire, on one side is the Android camp's frantic internal competition, focusing on materials, technology, design, and functionality; on the other side is the Buddhist-like Apple, maintaining stable micro-innovations. It is believed that many Apple users have chosen to "abandon Apple and invest in Android" precisely for this reason.

Users are gradually seeing through brand premiums

For a long time, Apple products have been favored by consumers due to their advantages in design, ecosystem, performance, and user experience. However, their high prices have also deterred many consumers. If Apple's innovation pace could keep up with its inflated pricing strategy, perhaps there wouldn't be so much controversy. But as everyone knows, the extent of iPhone's incremental updates has reached a new level in recent years.

Take the iPhone 15 as an example. Apart from the upgrade from the A15 processor to the A16, other configurations are almost identical to the iPhone 14 from 2022, not to mention that the A16 processor was actually released in 2022.

From the current perspective, Apple released a phone in the second half of 2023 that actually belongs to 2022. Meanwhile, domestic phones have surpassed Apple's A16 processor in performance. In addition, in terms of peripheral configurations such as screen, charging speed, battery capacity, and signal reception, domestic phones have also comprehensively surpassed the iPhone 15.

Even so, the price of the iPhone remains high, much higher than comparable domestic phones in the same segment. Many mid-range models from the Android camp have started with 12+256GB, and even the top-of-the-line 16+1TB models are not overly expensive, requiring only an additional five or six hundred yuan for those who really need large storage.

Image source: Bilibili @ 林亦 LYi

In contrast, the iPhone 15 originally started at around five to six thousand yuan but only offers a 6+128GB memory combination. To upgrade to 256GB, you have to add a thousand yuan. It can be said that the saying about Apple products having "golden memory" is not exaggerated at all. For Apple users, at this stage, the iPhone seems to have only two advantages left: stable iOS and the bundled Apple ecosystem.

However, Apple's pricing strategy is far from as solid as imagined. On January 15, Apple's official website released promotional information, covering almost all Apple products. In fact, this is not the first time Apple has initiated price cuts on its official website. Similar policies have been implemented in the past two years, but not frequently, mostly on third-party platforms such as JD.com and Tmall.

As for what happened afterwards, everyone is aware. Apple's core products have seen wave after wave of price cuts. In Xiaolei's opinion, similar situations will continue to occur irregularly in the future, and the frequency will increase. Before Apple products such as the iPhone regain their absolute advantage in product strength, Apple must rely on promotional measures to stabilize the iPhone's position in the smartphone market.

Those Apple fans who are not in a hurry to replace their phones may want to wait a bit longer, as they may enjoy price reductions similar to those during 618 at any time.

The value preservation halo is gone, are there still electronic hard currencies?

When it comes to value preservation, Moutai is undoubtedly a term that cannot be avoided. People are always accustomed to attaching names like "electronic Moutai" and "cyber Moutai" to products with high value preservation rates. Have you noticed that Moutai, which was once hyped up in the past few years, has also gradually come down in price? During 618, the price of Feitian Moutai has come down to around 2,200 yuan. As the originator of value preservation begins to cool down, is there still a way out for "xx Moutai" in other fields?

Looking at the development history of electronic products, we can find that there have been so-called "electronic Moutai" in every period, such as the iPhone, Huawei Mate X5, Fujifilm cameras... These familiar names have gradually lost their value preservation reputation with technological development.

Image source: Leikeji Photography

Overall, the value preservation of electronic products is not a blanket statement but is influenced by multiple factors, including brand, market demand, and technology update speed.

For example, in the African market, some low-end electronic products are deeply loved by users due to their precise market positioning and low prices. Conversely, these products are at best treated as toys or feature phones and sold at low prices in the Chinese market, indicating that the value preservation rate of electronic products changes with regions and market demand.

On the other hand, certain electronic products from specific periods (where prices rise rapidly due to supply chain issues and surging demand) also have the potential to become electronic hard currencies. For example, graphics cards during the mining boom and game consoles during risk control periods. Some specific products may become new electronic hard currencies in specific times and regions.

However, overall, the rapid upgrading and technological iteration of electronic products will have a negative impact on the value preservation rates of all electronic products. Unless specific conditions are met, the electronic products in our hands will eventually escape the fate of depreciation, and there is no such thing as a permanent electronic hard currency.

Source: Leikeji