10/24 2024 581
The performance of the three major operators in Q3 remained stable on the whole, while China Unicom's share price was strong, probably due to its strongest revenue and profit performance, with respective growth rates of 3.3%/8%, better than China Mobile's -0.1%/1.1% and China Telecom's 2.9%/3.5%.
Specifically, China Mobile, with the largest scale, faces many challenges. In Q3, mobile ARPU/revenue accelerated its decline, and EBITDA fell 5% in Q3 from a 1% increase in Q2, but profits continued to grow due to reduced depreciation. At the same time, the significant narrowing of accounts receivable growth is also in line with the operating characteristics of government and enterprise businesses mentioned in the financial report.
Although China Unicom's revenue growth was stable, its EBITDA growth trend slowed down under cost pressures, falling from a 2% increase in Q2 to 0.4% in Q3. However, profits increased significantly due to cost control.
It is worth noting that the company announced a change in its depreciation policy from October 1, extending the depreciation life of 4G equipment from 7 years to 10 years. According to the company's estimates, depreciation expenses will decrease by 1.1 billion to 1.2 billion yuan annually.
Among the three, China Telecom is the only one to achieve an increase in EBITDA margin, partly due to better cost control and partly because its cloud/industrial digitization and other businesses are catching up with traditional telecommunications businesses.
Currently, China Mobile is encountering bottlenecks in its operations, but with a large amount of cash on hand, it is well-positioned to further increase dividends, albeit with a limit of increasing from 75% to 100% at most; China Unicom enjoys steady annual profit growth coupled with a steadily rising dividend payout ratio; and China Telecom exhibits strong growth potential in its cloud business.
The industry as a whole remains stable, with a high degree of certainty for the future, but insufficient certainty for growth. Considering the general trend of interest rate cuts both domestically and internationally, the dividend yield of operators can play a role as a floor, and the industry remains very stable from a bond perspective.