On January 2, 2025, Beijing time, Tesla announced before market open that it delivered 495,570 vehicles in Q4 2024, resulting in a full-year delivery volume of 1.7892 million, slightly below the 1.81 million achieved in 2023.

Notably, Tesla produced 459,400 vehicles and sold 495,600 in Q4, missing analysts' expectations of 512,277 vehicles by approximately 16,000 units.

Musk once boldly predicted that Tesla's annual growth should hover around 50%, with a goal of eventually reaching 20 million sales, surpassing Toyota and Volkswagen combined. However, this ambitious target will now be postponed indefinitely. With Musk's involvement in the Trump administration, and Trump's official inauguration on January 20, it is possible that Musk may shift his focus to government work, further reducing his engagement with Tesla.

The production-sales gap in Q4 suggests that Tesla slowed down production during the quarter, potentially to prepare for the refreshed Model Y, although the anticipated New Year's launch did not materialize. The disappointing deliveries came as a surprise, especially considering Tesla's efforts in China, the largest new energy vehicle market, where it introduced a five-year interest-free payment policy and a limited-time $1,000 discount on the Model Y in December, pushing its price to an all-time low.

These efforts still fell short of analysts' expectations for Tesla's deliveries, potentially due to declining sales in the United States. Some Americans reported ordering a refreshed Model 3 on December 31 and picking it up that evening to welcome the New Year, taking advantage of promotional offers including three months of free Supercharging and FSD.

Following the sales announcement, Tesla's share price plummeted, dropping from a pre-announcement gain of around 1.5% to a loss of about 5%, a swing of over 6 percentage points. This directly pushed Tesla's share price below the $400 and $390 marks, testing the $380 level.

Post-market open, Tesla's share price took a nosedive, falling from the opening price of $390.1 to test the $370 level, marking an intraday drop of over 7%, followed by signs of a strong rebound.

Notably, just nine trading days prior, Tesla's share price hit an all-time high of $488.54, giving it a total market capitalization of $1.57 trillion and making Musk the world's first individual with a net worth exceeding $400 billion.

From the Q3 earnings report in October to Trump's election, Tesla's share price doubled, soaring from $212.11 to an all-time high of $488.54 on December 18 in less than two months.

The disappointing Q4 deliveries may trigger a correction in Tesla's share price, with the next focus shifting to Q4 and full-year 2024 earnings. Tesla's profitability increased in the first three quarters, with cumulative earnings of $242 million, $3.854 billion, and $10.11 billion, respectively. Such profitability is enviable among Chinese automakers and worth pursuing.

Looking ahead to 2025, Tesla's launch of the refreshed Model Y is certain. Reports also suggest that Tesla will introduce a six-seat, extended-length, China-specific version of the Model Y and a budget model, the Model Q. Whether the Cybertruck can be sold in China and Europe depends on Tesla's progress in modifying the design to meet local regulatory requirements and obtaining approval for local launches.

In the recently concluded 2024, Chinese automakers posted impressive sales figures: BYD led the market in China with over 4.27 million sales, while Geely, Li Auto, NIO, and Xiaomi all met their annual sales targets. Notably, Li Auto revised its targets downward twice. Zeekr and NIO achieved 97% of their annual sales targets, with NIO delivering over 30,000 vehicles for the first time in December.

Furthermore, Xiaomi delivered over 25,000 vehicles for the first time in December, with new orders exceeding deliveries, leaving Lei Jun with a backlog of vehicles. Xiaomi's delivery target for 2025 is 300,000 vehicles, with the new model YU7 expected to launch in the middle of the year.

Xpeng set a new record by delivering 36,700 vehicles in December. The dark horse Leaping Auto delivered 42,500 vehicles in December, setting a new monthly delivery record for the seventh consecutive month and delivering over 290,000 vehicles for the full year.

Additionally, in 2024, Li Auto delivered 500,500 vehicles, HarmonyOS Smart Ride delivered 445,000 vehicles, Geely delivered 2.1766 million vehicles, Great Wall Motor delivered 1.2333 million vehicles, and Chery delivered over 2.6 million vehicles, including over 1.14 million exports! SAIC Motor delivered 4.639 million vehicles, Geely Holding delivered 3.25 million vehicles, and Changan Automobile delivered 2.68 million vehicles.