A recent research report by the Deutsche Bank analyst team projects significant growth for NIO, XPeng, and Li Auto by 2025, primarily driven by the introduction of new models and the optimization of their product portfolios. Below are the detailed forecasts and analyses:

NIO: Delivery Forecast to Double to 450,000 Vehicles in 2025

Led by Wang Bin, the Deutsche Bank analyst team forecasts that NIO's annual delivery volume will double year-on-year to approximately 450,000 vehicles in 2025. This aligns with NIO's 2025 sales guidance provided in its Q3 2023 financial report.

Ledo Sub-brand Shines: In 2024, NIO's main brand delivered 201,209 vehicles, while the Ledo sub-brand contributed 20,761. Analysts predict that the Ledo brand will deliver 220,000 vehicles in 2025, with the first model, L60, accounting for 180,000. Factors driving Ledo's growth include an expanded retail network, a diverse product portfolio, and enhanced battery swap capabilities. Furthermore, Ledo plans to launch two new models in 2025: a six-seat large SUV, L90 (codename BLANC), in Q3, and a five-seat SUV, L80 (codename ROSA), in Q4.

NIO Main Brand: Prioritizing Profitability: NIO's main brand is expected to deliver 223,000 vehicles in 2025, marking a 10% year-on-year increase. Analysts note that NIO will prioritize profitability over sales growth and plans to update five existing models in the second half of the year, including the ES7, ES6, EC6, ET5 sedan, and ET5 Touring. Notably, the ES7 will be upgraded to an extra-large six-seat SUV.

Firefly Brand: Set to launch around April, it is currently challenging to predict its sales volume.

XPeng: Delivery Forecast to Grow 110% to 400,000 Vehicles in 2025

Deutsche Bank predicts that XPeng's annual delivery volume will reach 400,000 vehicles in 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of approximately 110% from 190,068 vehicles in 2024. This growth will primarily be fueled by the strong order backlog for Mona M03 and P7+, as well as the launch of at least four new products in 2025. These new products include the first extended-range electric vehicle (EREV), a large SUV, scheduled for launch in Q4. Additionally, XPeng will conduct technological upgrades on existing products, such as the G6 SUV and G9 SUV.

Aiming for Break-even: XPeng aims to achieve break-even by the end of 2025, when its monthly sales are expected to exceed 40,000 vehicles.

Li Auto: Delivery Forecast to Grow 40% to 700,000 Vehicles in 2025

Deutsche Bank forecasts that Li Auto's delivery volume will reach 700,000 vehicles in 2025, marking a 40% increase from 500,508 vehicles in 2024. Li Auto will have a dual focus on EREV and BEV: out of the 2025 deliveries, 630,000 are expected to be extended-range electric vehicles (EREV), and 70,000 will be battery electric vehicles (BEV).

Currently, Li Auto's four EREV models (L6, L7, L8, L9) and the all-electric Mega MPV continue to drive sales growth. New product layout: Li Auto plans to launch the i6 large pure electric SUV in mid-2025, priced between RMB 200,000 and RMB 250,000, filling the gap in its product line below the RMB 200,000 market. Additionally, Li Auto may launch an ultra-large SUV in the second half of the year.

Summary: Deutsche Bank's analysis reveals that NIO, XPeng, and Li Auto will achieve robust growth in 2025 through new models and technological upgrades. NIO aims for a delivery volume of 450,000 vehicles via a dual strategy involving the Ledo sub-brand and the main brand; XPeng expects a 110% increase in deliveries to 400,000 vehicles due to new products and technological upgrades; and Li Auto targets 700,000 vehicles with a dual focus on EREV and BEV.

As China's new energy vehicle market continues to expand and competition intensifies, the performance of these three leading new force automakers offers valuable insights into the industry. In the future, technological innovation, product diversification, and market positioning will be crucial factors determining the success or failure of these enterprises.

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