How will the top five emerging automakers challenge the established "domestic five"?

Among the four new energy vehicle brands that surpassed their sales targets, three belong to emerging players (Xiaomi, ZERORUN, Li Auto). This underscores that, in the pivotal shift from fossil fuel to electric vehicles, survivors are no longer limited to "PPT carmaking" brands that disappoint consumers.

Reviewing the new cars launched last year, virtually all emerging players aimed to "bloom in multiple fields." For instance, HarmonyOS Smart Drive's Zunjie brand introduced the luxury executive sedan S800, Xiaomi unveiled the more powerful Xiaomi SU7 Ultra, XPeng launched the MONA series, and NIO introduced sub-brands Ledao and Firefly to capture a larger market share.

Image source: Xiaomi Auto official website

Lei Jun predicts that only five automakers will dominate the future automotive market. Although this day may not arrive soon, it highlights a harsh reality: the Matthew Effect in the automotive market is intensifying, and the final outcome will be a "winner-takes-all" scenario.

Given this backdrop, emerging players will inevitably unveil more new cars to tackle new market challenges. Currently, the 2025 new car plans of NIO, XPeng, Li Auto, HarmonyOS Smart Drive, and Xiaomi have been disclosed. How will these new cars impact the Chinese market structure?

HarmonyOS Smart Drive: Leveraging Intelligence and High-End Credentials

Last year, HarmonyOS Smart Drive successfully launched its "Four Realms" strategy, and its newly introduced products are priced at a premium. It also rolled out Kunlun Intelligent Driving's "parking spot to parking spot" capability by year-end. With intelligence and high-end offerings as its strengths, HarmonyOS Smart Drive emerged as a "topic king" in the new energy vehicle market last year.

This year, HarmonyOS Smart Drive's primary focus remains the full development of its "Four Realms." According to the plan, it will launch ten new cars in 2025, including all-new models such as Wenjie M8, Xiangjie S9 extended-range version, and Zunjie S800.

Image source: Dianchetong photography

Currently, the Zunjie S800 is in the announcement stage. The official has only revealed eight selling points, including super cruise, super information perception, AI assistance, and active protection systems. It has also showcased comfort features like rear-wheel steering and smart light curtain glass whose brightness can be adjusted with a finger swipe.

It's evident that advanced and high-end configurations are the focus of the Zunjie S800. However, Dianchetong believes that what will most significantly impact the market structure is the L3-level intelligent driving architecture.

During the 2024 World Intelligent Connected Vehicles Conference, Yu Chengdong announced that Huawei's ADS 4.0 will be launched this year, accompanied by commercial experiences of high-speed L3 autonomous driving and pilot projects for urban L3 autonomous driving. By pioneering the application of high-speed L3 commercial experience on million-yuan products, HarmonyOS Smart Drive has taken a crucial step that may prompt other automakers to increase investments in intelligent driving.

When it comes to boosting brand sales, Wenjie M8 and the extended-range version of Xiangjie S9 are key models.

Image source: Ministry of Industry and Information Technology

Wenjie M8 has already completed its declaration. In terms of various parameters, its range extender and rear drive motor's peak power have increased compared to Wenjie M9. Considering its configuration performance will be comparable to Wenjie M7 and Wenjie M9, we can infer that the price range of Wenjie M8 will largely overlap with that of Li Auto L9.

The Xiangjie S9's overall strength is impressive. It outperforms BBA models in safety, luxury, intelligence, and other areas. The only drawback is that the entire series only offers a pure electric powertrain, which may deter users with range anxiety. Naturally, it struggles to match BBA models in sales. Therefore, the introduction of the extended-range version of Xiangjie S9 will positively impact overall sales.

Image source: HarmonyOS Smart Drive

Apart from these three products, HarmonyOS Smart Drive will also facelift and upgrade existing models. Moreover, based on the brand's tone and previous product strategies, the official may introduce the ADS SE basic version of intelligent driving to lower the entry barrier. The comfort configuration experience across different versions will not vary significantly.

Dianchetong has yet to inquire about HarmonyOS Smart Drive's 2025 sales target, but many media outlets have reported that it has set a goal of 1 million vehicles, doubling the 500,000 vehicles targeted for 2024.

With the addition of new products, HarmonyOS Smart Drive won't face significant pressure to surpass last year's cumulative delivery volume of 444,956. However, a sales target of 1 million vehicles is ambitious. HarmonyOS Smart Drive primarily promotes products priced above 200,000 yuan and has yet to cover China's most mainstream price market. Counting other brand models applying Huawei Kunlun Intelligent Driving, there's still a chance.

Xiaomi: YU7 Becomes the Spotlight, a Real Challenger to Model Y?

Xiaomi's new SUV YU7 has been unveiled on the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's website, and Lei Jun confirmed that the new car will be launched in June or July this year. Conventionally, the new car may hold a press conference or open for pre-sale a few months before its launch.

Image source: Ministry of Industry and Information Technology

When Xiaomi SU7 was launched, it compared various parameters with Model 3. Indeed, Model 3's market position declined last year, and Xiaomi SU7's monthly sales volume surpassed Model 3 in December. Now, Lei Jun has accepted the challenge from Tesla's new Model Y. Undoubtedly, the new Model Y will remain a key focus at the Xiaomi YU7 launch conference.

According to the declaration information, Xiaomi YU7 has an axle distance of 3000mm, positioning it higher than the new Model Y. Its interior space performance is expected to be more impressive. In terms of performance, Xiaomi YU7's dual-motor version boasts a total power of 508kW, significantly higher than the 331kW of the new Model Y's dual-motor version.

Xiaomi YU7 will be launched as early as June, so the competition between these two products will primarily occur in the second half of the year. After the launch of Xiaomi YU7, Xiaomi Auto will rely on Xiaomi SU7 and Xiaomi YU7 to capture the market this year and ultimately achieve its annual sales target of 300,000 vehicles.

Of course, in addition to Xiaomi YU7, Xiaomi SU7 Ultra will be launched in March. The official has already unveiled this new car last year, so Dianchetong will not elaborate on its product strength again.

It's worth noting that Xiaomi's press conferences typically last 2 to 3 hours. It's anticipated that Xiaomi YU7 will make its official debut at the Xiaomi SU7 Ultra launch conference. Dianchetong will provide timely follow-up reports.

Li Auto: Focusing on Pure Electric and AI, with the L Series as the Foundation

Last year, Li Auto launched its first pure electric product, MEGA. However, due to objective reasons such as product positioning mismatch with market demand and an inability to keep pace with the energy replenishment system, Li Auto has yet to gain widespread market recognition in the pure electric vehicle sector. Although Li Auto made substantial profits last year relying on the L series, it still needs to improve its supercharging station layout and urgently address shortcomings to meet the pure electric vehicle market demand in 2025.

Image source: Li Auto

Currently, it's confirmed that Li Auto will launch a pure electric SUV this year, forming an SUV matrix with the L series, which primarily focuses on extended-range power. Based on exposed spy photos, Li Auto is likely to first introduce a pure electric SUV comparable to Li Auto L9 and Li Auto L7. Unfortunately, there's still limited information about the pure electric SUV, so a competitiveness analysis is temporarily impossible.

Beyond products, Li Xiang, the founder of Li Auto, revealed at the "2024 Li Auto AI Talk" that more energy will be allocated to the field of AI this year.

Currently, Li Auto has fully rolled out high-level intelligent driving from "parking spot to parking spot" and its self-developed base large model Mind GPT 3.0. If Li Auto increases its investment in AI, the in-vehicle infotainment system and intelligent driving performance of its entire vehicle line are expected to be comprehensively improved, potentially making it another automaker focusing on L3 autonomous driving.

It's worth mentioning that Li Auto will definitely venture into humanoid robots, but Dianchetong believes it won't gain momentum this year. After all, humanoid robots require robust autonomous operation capabilities, sensor control, and other multi-dimensional skills, which necessitate profound intelligent technology accumulation.

In other words, Li Auto's primary focus this year remains on automobiles, with the L series serving as the brand's foundation for sales. For the newly launched pure electric SUV to achieve sales data comparable to the L series, the brand needs to enhance its energy replenishment system.

XPeng: G7 Exposed, Extended-Range Vehicles to Launch This Year

In 2024, XPeng delivered a cumulative total of 190,100 vehicles. Although it fell short of the year-start goal of 200,000 vehicles, a year-on-year growth of about 34% allowed XPeng to emerge from its sales downturn, with the new cars XPeng MONA M03 and XPeng P7+ contributing the most.

XPeng has set a sales target of 350,000 vehicles for 2025. This figure is 84% higher than the 2024 sales volume, which seems challenging. However, based on the newly released weekly sales volume (from January 13 to January 19), XPeng sold 7,600 vehicles during this period. If XPeng can maintain this sales level weekly, the annual sales target of 350,000 vehicles seems achievable.

Regarding new car plans, it's currently known that XPeng G7, XPeng E29 (codename), and XPeng G01 (codename) will be released this year. Among them, XPeng E29 will be launched in the third quarter and is expected to succeed the XPeng P7i. The brand's first extended-range model, XPeng G01, will be released in the fourth quarter.

Image source: XPeng official website

XPeng officially announced its entry into the extended-range hybrid segment, with the technical capability to achieve a pure electric range of 430km and a comprehensive range of 1400km. Such endurance is actually top-tier in the extended-range vehicle market. It's hoped that XPeng G01 can fulfill all the promises made at the press conference.

As a brand-new mid-size SUV, the axle distance of XPeng G7 is identical to that of XPeng G6 but adopts a more traditional SUV body. In other words, XPeng G7 will further enhance interior space performance while continuing its focus on intelligence.

Additionally, XPeng G6, XPeng G9, XPeng X9, and other new products will also undergo facelifts and upgrades this year, and it's expected that they will all be equipped with the latest pure vision intelligent driving solution. Simultaneously, optimizations will be made to the powertrain, steering all models towards "focusing on endurance solidity rather than battery capacity."

Judging from the plan, XPeng's new products this year are even more diverse than last year. With the successful experience of XPeng MONA M03 and XPeng P7+, XPeng seems to have discovered the recipe for success. The extended-range models are expected to be delivered next year, potentially gaining XPeng more consumer attention.

NIO: Continuing to Focus on Sub-Brands and Energy Replenishment Systems

Last year, NIO placed more emphasis on its sub-brands Ledao and Firefly. The launch of Ledao L60 and the pre-sale of Firefly allowed NIO to refresh its annual delivery record.

Regarding this year's sales target, Li Bin, the founder of NIO, revealed in an internal letter earlier: sales will double in 2025, and the company will achieve profitability in 2026.

Screenshot: Li Bin's internal letter

Consequently, NIO will heavily rely on its two sub-brands, Ledao and Firefly, this year. It's worth noting that NIO's monthly sales are relatively balanced, with entry-level products like NIO ET5 and NIO ES6 driving most sales. If there are no unforeseen circumstances, NIO will also upgrade these best-sellers. However, the price point of products above 290,000 yuan limits NIO's audience, necessitating efforts from the more affordable Firefly and Ledao.

At the launch event of the Ledao L60, Ai Tiecheng, President of Ledao Automobile, disclosed during a communication session that Ledao intends to introduce 1-2 new models annually. Specifically, this year, two new products will be unveiled in the third and fourth quarters, respectively – a large five-seat SUV and a 6-7 seat medium to large SUV, both aiming squarely at the household SUV market. Meanwhile, Firefly, which commenced pre-sales at the 2024 NIO DAY, is set for launch in April this year.

Regarding Firefly, which has a pre-sale price of 148,800 yuan, the company emphasized that its primary focus will be on overseas markets, with the domestic market serving merely as one of its battlegrounds. Dianchetong observes that while there is a scarcity of boutique small cars in China, the domestic market does not exhibit a high demand for such vehicles. Consumers tend to prefer products with more features and larger spaces within the same segment, making Firefly a better fit for the needs of overseas consumers.

Screenshot: NIO Live Broadcast

In addition to its product lineup, NIO also aims to "achieve county-level charging coverage." For NIO, the objectives of doubling sales by 2025 and achieving company profitability by 2026 pose significant challenges.

To double sales this year, both Ledao and Firefly must gain substantial popularity. However, relying solely on the Ledao L60 is insufficient; timely releases of the two new products are crucial. Firefly must also fortify its sales network in overseas markets. Furthermore, this year marks a pivotal period for implementing the "Power Up to Every County" plan, which necessitates a substantial expansion of energy replenishment facilities nationwide, thus requiring significant investments from NIO. To attain profitability next year, the pressure on these two sub-brands is immense.

Written at the end

The risk resilience of these five emerging automakers is gradually improving, alleviating short-term funding concerns. Moreover, from a strategic standpoint, these leading newcomers are increasing their investments in new vehicles, technology, and energy replenishment systems, aiming to gain a stronger foothold in the new energy market.

Traditional domestic brands like Geely and Changan have also made initial strides in the new energy field over the past one or two years, gradually catching up with new carmakers in sales figures.

Fortunately, after years of market competition, the industry is no longer as skeptical of these emerging forces as it once was. An increasing number of consumers are willing to compare newcomers with established automakers. This presents a prime opportunity for rapid growth and expansion for these new players.

(Cover image source: Dianchetong Photography)