Li Bin remains steadfast in his eight-character mantra: "Progress gradually, success through perseverance."

Fortunes fluctuate, with every three years heralding significant shifts.

When XPeng Motors faced a crisis, the industry widely perceived that "He Xiaopeng lacked a Qin Lihong." In less than two years, XPeng emerged from its difficulties under Wang Fengying's cost-reduction reforms. Now, as NIO navigates its path to success, the industry echoes, "Li Bin lacks a Wang Fengying."

In 2025, fortune favored He Xiaopeng as XPeng Motors surpassed Lixiang One in sales among new-energy vehicle startups, with Wang Fengying playing a pivotal role. After joining XPeng, Wang Fengying tackled corruption, adjusted marketing strategies, and stabilized the company.

With a series of strategic adjustments and product innovations, XPeng introduced models like the MONA M03 and XPeng P7+, which gained popularity due to their high cost-effectiveness and intelligence, contributing to XPeng's sales crown.

Thus, the industry believes that Li Bin, with his bold and forthright personality, also needs a "tough character" like Wang Fengying who acts swiftly and decisively. However, Li Bin contends that change need not be drastic; gradual progress is equally viable.

"Can NIO survive next year?" This question lingers in the industry. However, Li Bin remains unrushed. To better participate in the 2025 "competition for a seat at the table," he is leading a top-down self-revolution at NIO.

The first step in transformation is identifying problems. Li Bin pinpointed two key issues at NIO.

The first is expanding sales volume.

Currently, NIO has three brands: NIO, Letao, and Firefly. With the launch of Letao and Firefly, Li Bin has extended NIO's product line to the lower-tier market.

Li Bin aims for sales to double from the 2025 baseline of 220,000 units, reaching a target of 440,000 units. "The NIO brand may not double its sales, but the second brand, Letao, in its first full sales year with two new models, has the confidence to achieve a doubling of combined sales for Letao and NIO. Additionally, Firefly can contribute several thousand incremental sales each month."

However, challenges persist between the brands.

Foremost, the pure electric vehicle market above 300,000 yuan, where NIO holds a 40% share, is being impacted by models from Lixiang One and AITO. Overall, the NIO brand remains firmly in first place in the pure electric vehicle market above 300,000 yuan. From 2023 to 2024 delivery data, the "5566" models represented by ET5, ET5T, ES6, and EC6 have become NIO's main delivery force.

Expanding NIO's sales volume has become Li Bin's top priority.

On February 1, NIO announced a 5-year interest-free policy. From February 1 to February 28, users who pay a deposit to purchase a NIO vehicle can enjoy a financial plan with a down payment of 20% and 0% interest for 5 years, with no handling fees. Since the introduction of the "5-year interest-free" policy, market demand has been effectively released. Data shows that in February, NIO sold 13,192 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 62.2%.

Moreover, the highly anticipated Letao has encountered delivery obstacles due to production ramp-up. In the first two months of this year, the total delivery volume of Letao's first model, L60, was less than 10,000 units. Since its launch nearly half a year ago, cumulative deliveries have exceeded 30,000 units.

When the Letao L60 was first launched, Ai Tiecheng, President of Letao Automobile, issued a military order: to deliver over 10,000 units in December and over 20,000 units in March this year, or face dismissal if the targets are not met. As March approaches, the deadline looms.

However, Li Bin is determined to succeed. Achieving this goal means that NIO needs to deliver an average of at least 41,700 new vehicles per month in the remaining 10 months of this year.

"This is a reasonable goal. I don't think it's far-fetched."

Li Bin understands the key to driving sales. He said that the replacement cycle for new vehicles is short, and there should not be a long interval between the launch and delivery of new vehicles. It is crucial to establish a good sales reputation as soon as possible in the early stages of a new vehicle's launch. "However, throughout the entire lifecycle of a vehicle, NIO has not established a strong awareness of sales momentum in the first six months, which is an area that needs improvement."

According to NIO's plan, 2025 will be a significant year for the company's products, with four new models set to be launched. These include the administrative flagship sedan NIO ET9, which will begin deliveries in late March, the third brand Firefly, which will be launched in April, and two household SUV models from Letao, which will be delivered in the third and fourth quarters, respectively.

Li Bin has high expectations for the new models. He has stated that since its inception, NIO has aimed to establish multiple brands to cover multiple price ranges. However, the industry is concerned that if high-end defense and lower-tier market penetration cannot be balanced, they may end up dragging each other down. This is something Li Bin needs to approach with caution.

The second issue is reducing costs and increasing efficiency.

During the third-quarter 2024 earnings call, Li Bin also committed to achieving profitability by 2026.

It is well-known that NIO is "generous with its spending." In 2023, Li Xiang, the founder of Lixiang One, described Li Bin as someone who wants to build a grand vision and validate it through corporate operations.

The validation process involves "spending money," primarily in two areas.

First, NIO invests heavily in technology research and development. Over ten years, cumulative R&D expenses have reached 53 billion yuan, accounting for more than half of the total losses. NIO's quarterly R&D investment of 9.4 billion yuan far exceeds Lixiang One's 4.5 billion yuan and XPeng's 3 billion yuan.

The technological innovations resulting from ten years of R&D investment, including self-developed chips, batteries, intelligent driving technology, and battery swapping mode, are the foundation supporting NIO's multi-brand strategy.

Li Bin said in an interview with the media that "enjoying new technology" comes at a cost. The first company to develop a new technology spends three to four times or even more than the second company. NIO's investment in research and development and technology is the reason why NIO can establish a foothold in the high-end market.

Second, NIO's high investment in services also leads to high costs. Consider the following data: in the first three quarters of 2024, it reached 10.86 billion yuan, with sales expenses per vehicle reaching 72,800 yuan. Additionally, the operating costs of battery swapping stations also test Li Bin's resolve.

"Daring to heavily invest in battery swapping" is both Li Bin's courage and NIO's distinctiveness. Since 2018, NIO has promoted the battery swapping model and has built over 3,100 stations. Moreover, NIO has reached cooperation with listed automakers such as GAC Group, Changan Automobile, Geely Automobile, and JAC Motors, aiming to establish a "Battery Swapping Alliance."

This is NIO's trump card.

The construction of battery swapping stations requires significant capital investment. Western Securities believes that with increasing sales and the promotion of the new battery rental model, the number of battery swaps per station per day at NIO is expected to increase, potentially achieving break-even for battery swapping stations by the end of 2026.

However, Li Bin needs to be wary of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co. Limited (CATL). CATL plans to build 1,000 "Chocolate Swap Stations" by 2025. If this plan is implemented, it will be good news for NIO as it will jointly promote the expansion of battery swapping facilities. However, it also poses a risk as CATL's rapid deployment could impact NIO.

Research and development, as well as battery swapping stations, are both "cash-eating monsters." How long can NIO's cash flow sustain this?

At the end of last year, Li Bin stated, "China's automotive industry has entered the most intense and brutal phase, with higher-dimensional competition." He meant that the so-called intense and brutal competition is because we are now in the final stages of qualification. In the next two to three years, it will become clear who can stay at the table, participate in the finals, and persevere in the race.

He also knows that it is difficult to predict events two or three years in advance, but for NIO, surviving 2025 is paramount. Therefore, Li Bin initiated a reform called "Cost Mining" to reduce costs and ensure survival.

"Cost Mining" is an initiative taken by NIO to reduce ineffective and inefficient investments. For example, department heads monitor expenditure details monthly and optimize resource use, such as reducing color printing. It is reported that this initiative exceeded the cost reduction target set at the beginning of 2024.

Achieving break-even is also one of NIO's most important tasks in 2025. Li Bin stated that achieving profitability in 2026 is non-negotiable and will be ensured through sales growth, gross margin improvement, cost control, and operational efficiency enhancement.

Li Bin believes that building systematic capabilities involves identifying the most basic business units, such as each R&D project, each vehicle, each component, each store, each charging and battery swapping station, each battery, and each individual. Systematic capabilities can "empower" each business unit, and the company's operational efficiency will "naturally improve."

Unlike Li Bin's optimism, the market believes that NIO has reached a moment of destruction and reconstruction. However, Li Bin remains committed to his eight-character principle: "Progress gradually, success through perseverance."

"NIO operates differently from others. We won't backtrack or make sharp 180-degree turns. That's not our style, so we won't have the very dramatic adjustments that everyone expects."

Under Li Bin's steady hand, the market is reassessing NIO.

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