Introduction

As survival becomes paramount, the shine around the automotive newcomers begins to dim.

The harshness of this year's automotive market has far surpassed all expectations.

This isn't made up; it's the candid feedback of an executive from a major automaker during a recent conversation.

After enduring over four months of trials, both automaker employees and industry reporters are undoubtedly feeling physically and mentally drained.

Yet, here comes another Shanghai Auto Show, and I must share the unromantic truth.

This first half of the event, the most significant gathering in China's automotive market, will undoubtedly drain every participant's remaining energy. As one of them, I'm prepared for the exertion.

In summary, 'Just do it.'

Little did I know that, on the eve of this Shanghai Auto Show, I received a topic centered on the theme of 'disillusionment,' with the protagonists being the automotive newcomers that often steal the headlines.

They are seen as bellwethers of the entire market and products of the electric transformation wave. Many latecomers aspire to join this group, believing that being labeled as such represents pioneering transformation.

But after rounds of winnowing, elimination, and reshuffling, how many brands can still remain at the table?

Note that I'm referring to the original players, without the backing of traditional automakers or the influence of tech giants.

After reviewing, it seems that only NIO, XPeng, Li Auto, and Leapmotor remain...

Against this backdrop, I propose a timely viewpoint: 'At this Shanghai Auto Show, the shine around these four automotive newcomers should fade away.'

In other words, from NIO to XPeng, Li Auto, and Leapmotor, they are no longer undoubted leaders but part of a fierce battle.

Once upon a time, they arrived with great expectations and visions, but ultimately faced the unchanging rule of survival in the automotive industry: pursuing scale, striving for profitability, and entering a positive cycle.

Every link must not deviate.

With this measurement standard, let's focus on these four automotive newcomers. Taking advantage of the Shanghai Auto Show, the following passages will discuss their situations separately.

First, NIO.

Rationally and objectively speaking, after a silent or challenging first quarter, it undoubtedly fell into a whirlwind of public opinion again, with harsh voices emerging.

The underperformance of the Lido L60 since its launch last September undoubtedly played a significant role. The lack of support from this pivot, coupled with declining competitiveness of NIO's current models, jointly created the current dilemma.

However, in my view, despite the tricky situation, positive signals have emerged.

For example, NIO's recent executive adjustments, particularly focusing on Lido, with the departure of Ai Tiecheng and the succession of Shen Fei, have given positive signals.

Another example is the new round of promotions for NIO's current models, which has significantly boosted sales, indirectly proving that with sincerity, NIO still has a strong appeal among consumers.

Moreover, on the eve of the Shanghai Auto Show, the new premium pure electric minicar, Firefly, entered the market at 119,800 yuan, significantly improving its reputation...

In any case, this automotive newcomer still has quite a few cards to play.

At this Shanghai Auto Show, in addition to the joint booth of NIO and Firefly, the unveiling of the second new model, L90, at the Lido booth after L60 will undoubtedly attract a lot of attention.

As the helmsman, Li Bin has repeatedly reiterated that the goal of becoming profitable in this year's fourth quarter remains unchanged.

That's the situation.

In contrast, let's look at XPeng, which successfully took the crown as the 'sales champion' among automotive newcomers in the first quarter.

To be honest, the performance is truly eye-catching. Specifically, the two complementary pure electric sedans, MONA M03 and P7+, undoubtedly played the role of 'saviors.' Especially the former, with a single-month delivery volume exceeding 15,000 units, almost accounted for half of the total.

With the arrival of the 2025 models G6, G9, and X9, as well as the upcoming G7 and the true next-generation model of P7...

Without exaggeration, XPeng will have plenty of room to maneuver with new product launches this year, with a steady monthly sales volume surging towards 40,000 units or even higher.

At this Shanghai Auto Show, according to currently available information, there won't be too many significant actions besides the release of the flagship version of the P7+ and the announcement of various advancements in AI.

Under the relatively dull exterior, there's always a feeling that something bigger is brewing.

Of course, after achieving a quantitative change through an extreme cost-effectiveness strategy, how to resolve the severe backlash it brings to the brand level will be another critical test for He Xiaopeng and this automotive newcomer.

To some extent, it determines the company's upper vertical limit.

As for Li Auto, it is undoubtedly the one with the best development momentum among the four original players. In terms of 'self-financing' ability alone, it is already on a different level from NIO, XPeng, and Leapmotor, which are still losing money throughout the year.

At this Shanghai Auto Show, the return of the Ideal MEGA Home Family Special Edition will be a battle for Li Auto to prove itself once again.

It's undeniable that this family flagship, which has been controversial since its inception, caused this automotive newcomer, which had been sailing smoothly, to stumble hard.

But in a disguised way, 'slowing down' might not be a bad thing.

Li Auto now has more time to think carefully about how to embark on the path of pure electric vehicles.

Of course, it must be pointed out that with the fierce onslaught of competitors and the arrival of many new players, the severe pressure on the extended-range segment has become an irreversible fact, and the situation is becoming increasingly tricky.

Therefore, whether it can rely on the Ideal MEGA Home Family Special Edition, including the upcoming i8 to open up a second front, has gradually become a battle that this automotive newcomer cannot afford to lose.

In addition, at this Shanghai Auto Show, the Ideal L6 Smart Driving Renewal Edition, which enters the stage at the same time, will also be a crucial piece. Whether Li Auto can ultimately reach its goal of 700,000 units this year will depend on the performance of this product for nearly one-third of the contribution.

A bold guess is that the sales strategy of 'more quantity without increasing price' is only the first step of crazy harvesting.

Compared to 'NIO, XPeng, Li Auto,' the last of the four original players, Leapmotor, has been like a 'small transparent' for a long time, even on the verge of danger at the beginning of last year.

But the result is that this automotive newcomer staged a remarkable rebound with its actions.

Behind its resurgence, it can only be said that the right time, place, and people were indispensable. In other words, the assistance of national policies, the increase in the penetration rate of new energy vehicles, the extreme cost-effectiveness of its products, and minimal marketing mistakes have all become indispensable 'catalysts.'

This year, Leapmotor has even set a very ambitious sales target of 500,000 units. Rationally and objectively speaking, considering the competitive intensity of the entire market this year, the difficulty of achieving this target is not small.

Consequently, it is also required to find more powerful 'helpers' in addition to the C10, C11, and C16.

And this month, the B10, starting at 99,800 yuan, with the lidar version available for a minimum of 119,800 yuan, is its answer.

As for the other, it's the B01, making its global debut at this Shanghai Auto Show.

If you're familiar with Leapmotor, just hearing the name tells you that it's a sedan, and its positioning will probably be even more of a 'price killer' than the B10. The product matrix composed of the two, coupled with the three SUVs of the C series on the market, is the most crucial 'basic plate' for Leapmotor.

Seeing this, some readers may wonder, can such an approach really make money?

Borrowing Zhu Jiangming's answer from a previous interview, 'We are very happy to compete fiercely.' To some extent, the biggest strength currently held by this automotive newcomer focuses on supply chain vertical integration capabilities and production and manufacturing cost control.

Coupled with the continuous improvement of the commonality rate of parts and components of its products and the positive reinforcing effect of scale effects, it allows it to engage in pricing battles again and again.

However, similar to the problems encountered by XPeng, brand upgrading has gradually become a 'pseudo-proposition.' The resulting chain reaction also includes the difficulty in achieving a qualitative change in gross profit per vehicle.

Recently, coincidentally, an industry expert stated in an interview, 'I don't think any of NIO, XPeng, Li Auto will survive. The probability of them being able to exist independently in the end is zero. They need to merge, reorganize, and cooperate as soon as possible.'

'Those with an annual production of less than 2 million units may not survive due to their small size and excessive R&D expenses. They need to cooperate and form joint ventures in various ways.'

Taking advantage of this trend, I try to understand the core idea, which points directly to the fact that the environment of China's automotive market is still deteriorating, but the automotive newcomers have not yet ushered in a sufficiently observable scale effect and have been unable to achieve self-financing for a long time.

The truth is actually correct and coincides with the 'moment of disillusionment' mentioned in today's article.

But I think it's too decisive. Take Li Auto as an example; last year, with sales of 500,000 units, it was able to pocket a net profit of 8 billion yuan. Essentially, there are always more ways to survive than difficulties; the key is how to do it.

And as their shine gradually fades, the four original players left at the table have undoubtedly reached a crossroads that determines their fate.

This Shanghai Auto Show is another excellent observation anchor point...

Editor-in-Chief: Cao Jiadong, Editor: Wang Yue