At 8 p.m. on October 16, pre-orders for the iPhone Duo commenced. Within a mere minute, it was completely sold out across all platforms. The number of pre-orders on JD.com alone surpassed 3 million, whereas industry estimates suggested that the initial stock across all channels would not exceed 200,000 units.

A month prior to the opening of pre-orders, the 1TB version was listed for a staggering 79,999 yuan on Dewu, a price 58,000 yuan higher than the official retail price.

When pre-orders began, the actual transaction premium had decreased but still allowed for a markup of over 7,000 yuan. However, this seemingly robust premium rapidly diminished just three days later.

Several scalpers on second-hand platforms were offering the device with only a 3,000 yuan markup, promising delivery on the first day of official sales.

Xu Shan, a dealer based in Zhengzhou, managed to secure 50 units from the initial batch, with a total payment nearing one million yuan. Initially, he had calculated a profit of 2,000 yuan per unit, amounting to a total profit of 100,000 yuan for the 50 units. However, the buyer lowered the price twice overnight before shipment, with the latest offer falling below Xu Shan's purchase cost. As a result, selling all the units led to a direct loss of 25,000 yuan.

The narrative surrounding the “electronic Moutai” phenomenon shifted from euphoria to collapse in just 72 hours.

01 It's Not Demand Holding Apple Back, But Production Capacity

The foundation for the premium myth to persist is the assumption that supply will always fall short of demand. However, this assumption is weakening.

The production capacity bottleneck for the iPhone Duo is indeed real.

The hinge alone comprises 80 to over a hundred precision components, with some tolerances controlled at the 0.01-millimeter level. It takes several hours for a single machine to process just one hinge component.

The overall yield rate was once just over 60%, with daily production in late August limited to only a few hundred units.

Apple once considered delaying the launch to November but eventually managed to accumulate enough inventory for the scheduled October 23 release. Nevertheless, the initial supply remained extremely limited.

However, the pace of production capacity improvement surpassed market expectations.

During the period between pre-sale and delivery, signals of improved supply were continuously released, significantly narrowing the window for premium pricing.

Hoarders bet on continued shortages, but the production lines were ramping up, and inventory levels were rising. Once the scarcity was disproven, the price support vanished.

02 The Product's Strength Alone Cannot Sustain the Premium

If the product were truly unique, the premium might have held up for longer. However, the iPhone Duo made compromises in several core user experiences.

It lacks Face ID, opting instead for side-mounted Touch ID; it does not feature a telephoto lens, with only a 48-megapixel main camera and an ultra-wide lens at the rear; and the global version supports only eSIM, eliminating the physical SIM card slot.

Meanwhile, the cost of repairing the inner screen is as high as 7,998 yuan, making a screen replacement nearly equivalent to paying half the price of a new device again.

Image source: Internet

Consumers willing to spend 15,999 yuan for the initial launch are primarily buying into the novelty and social currency associated with a foldable iPhone.

However, once the novelty wears off, the trade-offs in configuration and repair costs become more apparent.

Nearly 70% of netizens surveyed believed the premium was exorbitant, preferring foldable phones from other brands. Those willing to pay a premium for the initial launch are not necessarily the same as those willing to pay a high price for daily use.

03 Who Is Paying for the Initial Scarcity?

In this premium collapse, the biggest losers are not Apple but middlemen and speculators.

A consumer who secured the initial batch and planned to resell it for a 6,000 yuan markup approached three buyers, with the highest offer being only 3,000 yuan.

Offline buyers ceased acquiring the phones because they, more than ordinary consumers, were aware that inventory levels were increasing and prices would only continue to drop.

The initial launch premium buys a temporal advantage, not the long-term value of the product itself.

Image source: Internet

If you're not in a rush to acquire the device on October 23 to flaunt it on social media, waiting a few weeks for production capacity to ramp up will likely bring the price back to near the official retail level.

Even Apple's customer service advises against purchasing through resellers or second-hand channels, as devices from these sources generally do not come with AppleCare, and the repair costs for foldable screens can easily outweigh the perceived prestige of paying a premium.

The iPhone Duo is a controversial product, but it's not one that guarantees a profit upon purchase.

Those who stocked up at a 58,000 yuan premium three days ago and those who couldn't sell even at a 3,000 yuan markup three days later are dealing with the same phone.

What changed is not the phone itself but the market's perception and pricing of scarcity.

Next time someone tells you the initial launch price will surely rise, ask first: With production lines ramping up, how many days can your premium truly hold? #iPhoneDuo #ApplePhone