In December 2025, the monthly penetration rate of new energy heavy-duty trucks in China surpassed 50% for the first time—meaning that for every two heavy-duty trucks sold, one no longer runs on diesel.

Yet, at the end of 2023, this figure stood at just 5%.

In the first half of 2026, cumulative sales of battery-swapping heavy-duty trucks reached 34,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 36%. In June alone, 8,861 units were sold, up 59% year-on-year, marking the second-highest monthly sales volume in history. The overall penetration rate of new energy heavy-duty trucks rose to 36.6%. Both CSC Securities and Huatai Securities have revised their full-year 2026 penetration rate forecasts upward to the 33%—37% range.

The true turning point for this industry lies not in policy documents but in the ledgers of fleet owners.

01 A Revolution in the Ledger: Battery-Swapping Heavy-Duty Trucks Outperform Diesel Trucks

Heavy-duty trucks are tools of production. Fleet owners make decisions with a cold, simple logic—they choose the option with the lowest total lifecycle cost.

That calculation has now been completely rewritten.

The purchase price of a traditional diesel heavy-duty truck is approximately RMB 370,000. Assuming it travels 150,000 kilometers annually with a fuel consumption of 35 liters per 100 kilometers, the annual fuel cost nears RMB 370,000—equivalent to burning a new truck every year. In contrast, an electric heavy-duty truck with a battery-swapping model has a purchase threshold of around RMB 500,000, with annual electricity costs of approximately RMB 180,000. Factoring in savings from eliminated engine and transmission maintenance, industry estimates suggest annual comprehensive operating costs are about RMB 79,000 lower than those of diesel trucks. The purchase price differential can be recouped in approximately 1.5 years, with every subsequent year yielding pure profit.

The core logic of battery separation involves stripping the battery away from the vehicle body. A single set of power batteries for heavy-duty trucks costs approximately RMB 300,000 to RMB 500,000, accounting for over 40% of the total vehicle cost. By separating battery assets, users' initial vehicle purchase costs drop by about 40%, bringing them roughly in line with those of traditional diesel heavy-duty trucks. This significantly lowers the financial barrier for fleet electrification.

The true economic turning point of the battery-swapping model lies in operational efficiency.

Battery swapping takes just 3 to 5 minutes, roughly equivalent to refueling a diesel truck. In high-frequency operation scenarios such as mines, ports, and steel plants, vehicles avoid downtime due to charging, directly converting attendance rates into transportation revenue. Academician Ouyang Minggao of the Chinese Academy of Sciences has pointed out that battery swapping offers the shortest recharging time compared to fast and ultra-fast charging, with the lowest cost per ton-kilometer of vehicle operation. When station utilization rates reach 40% or higher, the cost per ton-kilometer for station investment and battery investment under the battery-swapping model will decline significantly.

Yang Jun, General Manager of CATL's Qiji Battery Swapping, provided more specific figures: Heavy-duty trucks using Qiji's chassis-based battery-swapping system, traveling 100,000 kilometers annually, save RMB 0.62 per kilometer compared to diesel trucks, translating to an additional RMB 60,000 in annual earnings. Compared to LNG trucks, they save RMB 0.20 per kilometer, yielding an extra RMB 20,000 per year—all while avoiding the volatility of gas prices.

The more kilometers traveled, the greater the savings. For main-route fleets engaged in high-frequency transportation, the economic equation now works out.

Once the economic calculations align, a surge in sales becomes inevitable.

02 RMB 22 Billion in National Bonds and 3,000 Stations: A Strong Policy Push

If economic efficiency is the internal driver for battery-swapping heavy-duty trucks, then the policy mix of 2026 has pressed the accelerator on this track (Chinese term meaning 'track' or 'sector').

On July 21, a key signal emerged from a State Council Information Office press conference: RMB 22 billion in ultra-long-term special national bonds will be allocated to support the scrapping and replacement of old commercial freight trucks, with a focus on replacing them with new energy heavy-duty trucks. This represents a substantial 'trade-in' subsidy. The policy design logic is clear—relying on a differentiated incentive structure to lower the financial barrier for logistics enterprises and individual vehicle owners to switch to new energy models, using economic leverage to drive the 'diesel-to-electric' transition.

However, even more far-reaching than purchase subsidies is the layout of energy replenishment infrastructure.

In late May, eleven ministries and commissions, including the Ministry of Transport, jointly issued the Implementation Plan for Promoting the Large-Scale Application of New Energy Heavy-Duty Trucks. The plan sets a target of 40% penetration for new energy heavy-duty trucks by 2030, with a total fleet exceeding 1.6 million units, and supports the construction of approximately 3,000 heavy-duty truck charging and battery-swapping stations. The plan proposes focusing on busy freight sections of national highways and ordinary national and provincial roads, establishing charging and battery-swapping stations at key nodes such as freight hubs, ports, mines, factories, and parks, and advancing the 'connection of points into lines and formation of networks' for energy replenishment facilities.

What does 3,000 stations mean? As of the first half of 2026, CATL's Qiji Battery Swapping has built over 300 stations. Since 2020, Qiduan Xinnengli has deployed over 1,200 charging and battery-swapping stations nationwide, forming a main-route network spanning over 30,000 kilometers. The national target of 3,000 stations implies an unprecedented intensive period of station construction in the coming years.

At the funding level, the involvement of ultra-long-term special national bonds provides critical support for the large-scale implementation of charging and battery-swapping stations. The upfront investment for such stations is substantial, with long payback periods. Relying solely on social capital to drive progress would struggle to match the pace and rhythm of vehicle deployment plans. When national credit intervenes in the form of ultra-long-term, low-cost funds, bottlenecks in site acquisition, grid access, and equipment procurement are expected to be resolved more rapidly.

Currently, the Shenzhen Market Supervision Administration has also issued notices to establish local standards by the end of 2026, including technical requirements for the interchangeability of chassis-based heavy-duty truck battery-swapping systems and design specifications for chassis-based heavy-duty truck battery-swapping stations.

03 Accelerated Standardization: From 'One Vehicle, One Station' to 'One Station, Multiple Vehicles'

The most significant longstanding question (Chinese term meaning 'doubt' or 'question') surrounding the battery-swapping model is standardization. Battery packs from different automakers and battery manufacturers feature entirely independent shapes, battery-swapping interfaces, communication protocols, and thermal management systems. Batteries cannot be interchanged even among different models from the same brand. As a result, a single battery-swapping station can only serve a single brand and model, preventing land, power, and equipment investments from achieving economies of scale.

But change is accelerating.

CATL's battery-swapping business team published an article in the IEEE Earth Day special issue, systematically outlining the core architecture of a standardized battery-swapping solution. By unifying the dimensions, electrical interfaces, and communication protocols of power battery packs, cross-brand and cross-model battery swapping compatibility can be achieved. Chassis-based battery swapping for heavy-duty trucks can be completed in under 5 minutes.

Two national standards for battery swapping in electric commercial vehicles have been officially released, with the industry standard system evolving from local pilots to nationwide unification. The formulation of Shenzhen's standards further provides a local practical template for the interchangeability requirements of chassis-based heavy-duty truck battery swapping.

The significance of standardization lies not in the technology itself. It means that battery-swapping stations can transition from 'customized projects' to 'standardized products,' enabling battery assets to circulate freely across brands and operators' networks—finally unlocking the industry's economies of scale.

04 Network Formation: A Moat Woven from 1,800 Battery-Swapping Stations

Standardization addresses 'interchangeability,' while network density determines 'convenience of use.'

Qiduan Xinnengli is one of the national leaders in constructing a heavy-duty truck battery-swapping network. By 2026, the company had deployed over 1,800 heavy-duty truck charging and battery-swapping stations nationwide, covering 78.5% of China's prefecture-level cities. These stations are compatible with 731 models from 105 heavy-duty truck manufacturers, having completed nearly 20 million charging and battery-swapping services, with a market share exceeding 70%.

In August 2026, CATL acquired a 24.87% stake in Qiduan Xinnengli from China Power for RMB 2.556 billion, becoming its largest shareholder. Meanwhile, CATL's Qiji heavy-duty truck battery-swapping stations had surpassed 300, with a 2026 construction target of 900 stations. Qiduan Xinnengli achieved RMB 9.525 billion in revenue and RMB 356 million in net profit in 2025—a profit figure from a battery-swapping operator that speaks louder than any roadshow.

China's longest heavy-duty truck charging and battery-swapping corridor has entered commercial operation, featuring 22 intelligent battery-swapping stations and 5 charging stations. Focusing on medium- and long-distance transportation needs, Qiduan Xinnengli has established over 100 main-route charging and battery-swapping networks, with cumulative networked energy replenishment mileage exceeding 50,000 kilometers.

The underlying logic of this competition is clear: The density of main-route energy replenishment networks determines the application radius of electric heavy-duty trucks, while the expansion of this radius, in turn, drives network growth. Whoever first builds a battery-swapping network covering major logistics main routes will secure market initiative in the next phase.

05 Future Outlook: Main Routes Are the Decisive Battleground, Ecosystems Determine the Final Outcome

The rankings among vehicle manufacturers remain in flux.

In 2025, BYD led the sales rankings with a 22.8% market share, followed closely by XCMG and Sany. By the first half of 2026, traditional leader Sinotruk overtook the competition with a 15.7% market share, as new energy heavy-duty truck sales surged 229% year-on-year. With no absolute leader in the vehicle manufacturing landscape, the competition's final outcome remains far from decided.

EVTank predicts that by 2030, battery-swapping heavy-duty trucks will account for over 80% of new energy heavy-duty trucks, with the market size for battery-swapping station investment alone reaching approximately RMB 52.6 billion to RMB 63.1 billion. CATL Chairman Zeng Yuqun has publicly stated that the heavy-duty truck industry will experience explosive growth in the next three years, achieving a 50% electrification rate.

However, realizing this vision requires three conditions to be met simultaneously: unified standards, sufficient network density, and a vehicle fleet of scalable size. Standard unification—a process expected to accelerate following CATL's acquisition of Qiduan Xinnengli. Network density—an effort being propelled forward by the national target of 3,000 stations and the RMB 22 billion national bond initiative. Vehicle fleet size—by the first half of 2026, 34,000 battery-swapping heavy-duty trucks had been sold, with full-year sales expected to surpass 70,000 units.

The sequence of this explosion holds clues: Closed scenarios with fixed routes and high-frequency heavy loads, such as ports, mines, and steel plants, will be conquered first, as a single battery-swapping station can adequately serve an entire fleet. The true decisive battleground, however, lies on main routes—home to the heavy-duty truck market's largest transportation capacity and most stubborn diesel inventory. The eleven-department plan's proposed 30,000-kilometer zero-carbon road transport corridor effectively sets an official timeline for this tackle key problems (Chinese term meaning 'critical assault') route.

China has over 8 million heavy-duty trucks in operation, handling more than 70% of the nation's total freight volume. These vehicles consume millions of tons of diesel annually, emitting billions of tons of CO2. Electrifying heavy-duty trucks represents one of the toughest challenges in achieving carbon peak in China's transportation sector.

But the toughest challenges often breed the greatest opportunities.

When the top-level design of eleven ministries and commissions lands, when RMB 22 billion in national bond funds arrive, when the construction target of 3,000 battery-swapping stations is enshrined in national documents, and when CATL transforms from a battery manufacturer into an energy operator for road freight—these seemingly disparate events are converging into a silent infrastructure revolution.

- END -