The 'third-place' crisis looms large for long videos! Amid fierce internal and external competition, the priority for long videos in 2025 may be to abandon the 'mediocrity crisis'.

Original New Entropy

As the year draws to a close, long video giants seem eager to launch a new offensive for the upcoming year.

Youku presented its heavily invested S+ series, 'The Secret of the Qingming Scroll,' Tencent Video launched the highly anticipated web novel adaptation 'Da Feng Dagengren,' and iQIYI revived the Mist Theater with 'Flames in the Wind' to continue exploring suspense.

Judging from the content of these dramas, these three major works also reflect the current attitudes of the three platforms towards content.

Tencent continues to rely on big IPs and popular stars. 'Da Feng Dagengren,' as an IP nearly at the pinnacle of the Qidian website, has set multiple records, with a cumulative total of 9.37 million recommendations and an average subscription volume exceeding 200,000, ranking among the top three in Qidian's history. Additionally, the drama boasts an exceptional team from shows like 'Celebration,' led by popular star Wang Hedi, essentially creating a formidable barrier with its super resources.

However, judging from the results, 'Da Feng Dagengren' seems to have fallen short of expectations, raising questions about Tencent's strategy of big IPs and big stars. iQIYI, known for producing high-quality original content, has a stable audience and stands out for its deep cultivation of suspense and detective genres. Successes in 2024, such as 'Mysterious Records of the Tang Dynasty,' have deepened iQIYI's unique characteristics.

In third place, Youku shows more instability. Although 'The Secret of the Qingming Scroll' featured powerhouse stars like Zhang Songwen, the response was mediocre. According to a report by Sanlian Life Weekly, the effective playback volume of 'The Secret of the Qingming Scroll' revealed its true colors – with the entire series completed, its highest effective playback volume only ranked fourth, overshadowed by dramas in the same period and those already concluded. Meanwhile, Zhang Songwen's performance in this drama also received considerable criticism.

With big dramas performing averagely and smaller dramas exploding, Youku's 2024 seemed marked by unpredictable ups and downs. The popularity of 'The Story of Bian Shui' and 'Mo Yu Yun Jian' seemed to demonstrate the effectiveness of Youku's transformation, but the underwhelming performance of some highly anticipated dramas brought Youku back to its original impression.

In the long video arena, there has always been a theory that the intense competition would culminate in 2024, with the top two platforms entering a brief period of calm after achieving profitability.

However, reality seems less optimistic than expected. Short series are seizing market share, and the Matthew Effect is emerging. As a result, long video content is increasingly becoming a game of certainty. From this perspective, the external environment for third-place Youku seems to be becoming less friendly.

Top platforms like Tencent can maneuver with their vast content ecosystem, while iQIYI, following the success of 'The Storm,' has adopted a high-quality, cost-effective route. Youku excels in employing young directors and attempts to increase certainty through a more standardized creative path, but it still needs time to improve.

The competition among the three major long video platforms in 2024 has concluded. What is certain for 2025 is that competition in the long video sector has not weakened but has entered a new phase. Judging from the currently released lineups, each platform seems focused on increasing their chances of success in 2025, but it remains unclear who will emerge victorious.

Changes in content paradigms are undoubtedly profoundly impacting the development of the entire long video industry. While short series were still in their infancy, their rapid growth and monetization in 2024 have gradually stratified video content.

According to Goldman Sachs' report, 'The Monetization Model of Entertainment Short Series is Changing, Impacting Traditional Video Platforms,' the short series market reached 50 billion yuan in 2024, surpassing movie box office revenue (47 billion yuan) and accounting for about 70% of the long video market. It is expected to maintain a CAGR of 25% from 2024 to 2027, reaching 91 billion yuan by 2027. This rapid growth is driven by the fragmentation of user consumption habits and content innovation.

The rapid growth of short series can be attributed mainly to changes in their monetization model. The transition from paid (IAP) to advertising (IAA) has transformed short series into another form of 'mini-game,' and the low threshold for advertising has further increased audience acceptance.

In 2024, IAA accounted for 45% of short series monetization and is expected to rise to 70% by 2027. One of the main drivers of this change is the short video giant ByteDance. With the influx of Douyin traffic, the free model of Hongguo APP has risen rapidly, allowing investors to quickly see the huge potential of short series. Its daily active users have exceeded 40 million, with an average user session length of 93 minutes, surpassing long video platforms like iQIYI, Youku, and Tencent Video.

Long video platforms are quickly counterattacking!

Tencent leverages its in-ecosystem video accounts for a combination of long and short form content as a defensive strategy. iQIYI CEO Gong Yu also announced on September 26 the important decision to officially launch short series and micro-series theaters on iQIYI. Gong Yu emphasized that the short series launched by iQIYI are not simply low-cost web series cut into shorter segments, nor are the micro-series low-quality paid content. Gong Yu revealed that over 70% of the revenue from iQIYI's micro-series business model will be distributed to content producers, and these micro-series will be completely free for member users. This initiative aims to incentivize content creators while enhancing the viewing experience for member users.

For the two giants, short series seem like an essential ticket to the next era, not only determining the focus of future platform development but also implying a struggle for new discourse power.

However, starting from third-place Youku, the attitude towards short series seems ambivalent. Although it has increased the revenue share for short series through creator incentive mechanisms, whether to follow suit remains unclear.

From a macro perspective, on the demand side, the attention economy for long videos is undoubtedly shrinking. On the supply side, the high moats and high investments of top platforms are forming the Matthew Effect in various forms, squeezing the remaining pie in the industry.

As can be seen from various rankings, in 2024, according to Yunhe Data statistics, up to three dramas in the top 5 of effective playback volume of drama episodes came from Tencent Video. This objectively makes other content platforms increasingly cautious.

The domino effect of the short series business model is taking effect, and whether platforms can keep up with the trend is testing their abilities.

The shrinking market share directly affects changes in the creative model.

In 2025, it is evident that the number and scale of long dramas are both declining. According to data from the 2024 Drama Market Report released by Beacon Professional Edition, in 2024, iQIYI, Youku, and Mango TV released 266 new dramas with single episodes longer than 15 minutes, a year-on-year decrease of 10.1%, continuing the downward trend. At the same time, the total number of new episodes was 7,650, a year-on-year decrease of 11.3%, with an average of 28.8 episodes per drama, 0.3 episodes fewer than in 2023.

A more significant change is the attempt by major platforms to pursue certainty. One of the most important aspects is the short series adaptation of long dramas.

According to Interface News, shorter series were primarily mystery dramas in the past, such as iQIYI's 'Mist Theater' representatives 'Hidden Corners' and 'The Silence of the Truth,' both with 12 episodes. There are also drama companies like Lemon Films that have created the concept of 'short series' for shows like 'Criminal Profiling' and 'The Coward.'

However, this year, 'short' is no longer limited to mystery and crime dramas. 'My Altay,' adapted from writer Li Juan's eponymous essay, has only 8 episodes, with iQIYI branding it as a 'mini-series.' Even traditional long-form genres like ancient romance, modern romance, and workplace dramas are cutting down on water content. For example, the ancient romance dramas 'The Long Ballad 2' and 'Snow and Ice Ballad' released this year have fewer than 25 episodes, while the workplace drama 'Boundless Future' has only 26 episodes.

Meanwhile, the trend of short series directors stepping up to direct long dramas has also emerged this year, with 'Mo Yu Yun Jian' and 'Nine Layers of Purple' garnering significant attention. These two dramas share many similarities: involvement of short series directors, thrilling genres, fast-paced plots, and innovative cinematography. The outstanding performance of these two dramas has drawn widespread attention in the industry to the phenomenon of short series directors venturing into long dramas.

Low cost and rapid trial and error have become essential conditions for platforms to pursue certainty.

Another wave of certainty is reflected in Tencent's long-standing promotion of the fusion of super IPs and popular stars. From 'Celebration' to the recent 'Da Feng Dagengren,' these dramas are adapted from popular IP novels, leveraging book fans to drive drama fans and create buzz. However, this model faces IP scarcity and difficulty in adaptation, so while it is easily replicable, its stability is insufficient.

From a platform perspective, Tencent undoubtedly still adheres to the latter strategy, while iQIYI and Youku have embraced the former. Youku boldly employs newcomers, and its short series adaptations can be considered remarkable. However, Youku has not abandoned its original territory, so there still seems to be a lack of a definitive stratification in its approach.

With big dramas performing averagely and smaller dramas exploding, it reflects the gradual change in Youku's direction. However, it must be said that while the top two platforms have some inertia, if they turn around, Youku's advantage in small drama explosions may also face challenges. As long videos can carry more advertiser content, they are indispensable for platforms. To some extent, Tencent and iQIYI only need to address their shortcomings to effectively counter the impact of short series. For Youku, however, with its long suit not yet fully developed, it will take more time to catch up.

Moreover, to some extent, both Tencent and iQIYI have better genes for short series adaptations in terms of ecosystem integration. Whether it's video accounts or the Mist Theater, both giants appear complete in their ecosystems, laying a solid foundation for their development in 2025.

Amid internal and external competition, the priority for long videos in 2025 may be to abandon the 'mediocrity crisis.'

For Tencent, improving stability rather than relying on inertia is a must. Although the big IP + popular star model encountered some setbacks with 'Da Feng Dagengren,' its deep content foundation and vast ecosystem remain formidable assets.

Relying on Tencent's diverse businesses such as social media, gaming, and literature, Tencent Video can achieve cross-domain resource integration. The combination of video accounts and long video services not only opens up new avenues for the development of short series but also provides an additional powerful arm for the promotion and distribution of long videos, enabling precise reach to audiences across different circles. This is the confidence behind Tencent's continued leadership in the long video sector.

For iQIYI, the immediate question is how to break through in short series. With its deep cultivation of mystery and detective genres, iQIYI has built a unique brand image. Centered around the Mist Theater, iQIYI has gathered a large group of loyal mystery drama fans who have a high degree of recognition and loyalty to its content. The attitude of iQIYI's CEO towards short series shows its recognition of their value, but the answer to how to break through is not yet clear.

If there is a trump card for iQIYI, it may be its investment in technological research and development. iQIYI has more advanced recommendation algorithms that can precisely push long and short dramas tailored to users' tastes based on their viewing history, preferences, and other data, improving user retention rates. This is undoubtedly a powerful weapon for iQIYI to compete.

Finally, for Youku, the situation may not be optimistic. Youku's 'mediocrity' in big dramas urgently requires it to find its own breakthrough trump card.

Youku certainly possesses its own advantages. Its strategy of employing young directors, albeit still in the refinement phase, has already yielded initial successes. Young directors, known for their innovativeness and boldness, have contributed a myriad of distinctive works to Youku. Shows such as the acclaimed "The Story of Bian Shui" and "Mo Yu Yun Jian" have captivated audiences with their unique perspectives and innovative narratives. Should Youku further bolster its support for young creative talents and establish a robust talent development system by 2025, it has the potential to continue producing more differentiated content, thereby breaking viewers' stereotypes about the platform.

Regarding content layout, Youku must become more focused. It can no longer blindly emulate the trending topics on leading platforms but rather delve into underdeveloped niche areas with significant potential.

For instance, increasing investment in topics such as humanities, history, and niche art, and merging professional knowledge with engaging stories to craft dramas that are both profound and substantial. Once these topics achieve success, they can not only fill market gaps but also attract a loyal and dedicated niche audience, thereby forming a unique competitive edge.

Furthermore, Youku can no longer adopt a wait-and-see approach with short dramas. The pressing task is to learn from the successes of Tencent and iQIYI, blend its unique characteristics, and swiftly establish a short drama business system. Leveraging the existing creator resources on its platform, Youku should develop a short drama product line that embodies its distinctiveness, while refining the business model for short dramas to attract more high-caliber creators. By fostering a coordinated development of both short and long dramas, Youku can construct a comprehensive content ecosystem that caters to the diverse viewing needs of users across various scenarios.

The long-video sector in 2025 is rife with challenges, yet opportunities also lurk within the crisis. Whether it's leading platforms consolidating their advantages or Youku and others striving for breakthroughs, only by shunning mediocrity, showcasing unique strengths, and precisely addressing user needs can one excel in this fiercely competitive landscape.