On October 15, India held the International Telecommunication Conference, with senior Indian officials attending the meeting and Prime Minister Modi also making an appearance. At the conference, Indian officials made a bold statement, aiming to catch up with China in 6G technology and become the global leader in 8G technology. Interestingly, attendees from the European and American telecommunications industries applauded this announcement enthusiastically.

However, India's telecommunications industry is weakly established. Currently, India relies on European communication equipment providers such as Nokia and Ericsson for 4G and 5G network construction. Due to well-known reasons, it is difficult for Chinese communication equipment providers to obtain orders from Indian operators, and there are no local Indian communication equipment providers yet.

The telecommunications industry encompasses a long supply chain, with components such as chips and mobile phones being crucial parts in addition to communication equipment. This is precisely where India's weaknesses lie.

Recent news indicates that India has reached a cooperation agreement with Powerchip Semiconductor Corporation of Taiwan, which will provide technical support to India. Indian companies and the Indian government will each contribute funds, with an estimated investment of $11 billion. The factory is expected to mass-produce chips using the most advanced 28-nanometer process. However, this factory is still only a plan, and it remains unclear when mass production will commence. India has a history of repeatedly delaying numerous investment plans, some of which have ultimately failed to materialize.

Chips are crucial for communication equipment and mobile phones. Especially with the advent of 6G, which utilizes more frequency bands, communication equipment and mobile phones require more powerful performance to process vast amounts of data, necessitating advanced chips. However, India has little successful experience in chip design and manufacturing, making it a daunting task to start from scratch.

How weak is India's telecommunications industry today? In 2014, Indian mobile phone brands like Micromax emerged, but later it was revealed that almost all of these phones were manufactured by Chinese factories in Shenzhen and then branded as Indian.

It was not until 2017 when a Chinese mobile phone company and Foxconn set up factories in India to assemble mobile phones that India began its journey in mobile phone assembly. In 2019, Foxconn, Pegatron, and Wistron set up factories in India to produce iPhones, giving India the capability to assemble high-end devices like iPhones. However, even in this low-tech field of iPhone assembly, India struggled.

A few years ago, the Indian conglomerate Tata forcibly acquired Wistron's Indian factory and later took control of Pegatron's Indian factory. However, a recent fire at Tata's factory during iPhone 16 production rendered the production floor uninhabitable until it cooled down the next day. This ultimately led Tata to abandon iPhone production at the factory.

India relies on long-distance transportation of components from China for the assembly of mobile phones like iPhones, highlighting the lack of a local mobile phone supply chain. To reduce costs, Apple has pressured Chinese companies to set up factories in India. However, due to India's reputation as a graveyard for foreign investment, Chinese companies are generally reluctant to invest there. With Tata halting iPhone 16 production, Apple has had to shift more production back to China.

Even in the most basic field of mobile phone assembly, India struggles, and its plans to produce chips, starting with 28-nanometer technology, are still in their infancy. Chip manufacturing is far more technically challenging than mobile phone assembly. Given these shortcomings, it is difficult to imagine India successfully developing 6G, 7G, and 8G technologies and achieving global leadership within the next two decades.

Looking back at India's manufacturing development over the years, it is evident that India has made numerous grandiose claims that have yet to materialize. India's manufacturing sector has struggled to make significant breakthroughs, even in low-tech areas like mobile phone assembly, which relies heavily on Chinese and Taiwanese manufacturers. It is my belief that India's claim of becoming the global leader in 8G is nothing more than a pipe dream.