Original by New Energy Outlook (ID: xinnengyuanqianzhan)

Tesla Model Y has never lacked "tributors," but this time, it seems to have encountered a big problem.

Recently, a set of spy photos of Xiaomi's new SUV surfaced on online platforms. From the images, it is not difficult to see that the front face of this new SUV follows the classic design of Xiaomi SU7, while the body sides borrow design elements from Porsche and Ferrari. It is expected to officially launch in 2025.

Just like Xiaomi SU7 targeting Tesla Model 3, Xiaomi's SUV models will naturally target Tesla Model Y. And based on the consumers contacted by New Energy Outlook, the consumer group favoring Xiaomi SUV is no less than the owners of Xiaomi SU7.

Paying tribute to Tesla, becoming Tesla, defeating Tesla, has become the action guideline for domestic brands like Xiaomi Automobile.

An undisputed fact is that as many domestic new energy brands have successively launched models targeting Tesla, Tesla Model 3 has now been knocked off its pedestal.

So, will Tesla Model Y break through the siege or follow in the footsteps of Model 3?

1. Tesla Y Faces Another Powerful Opponent

It is understood that Xiaomi Automobile's first SUV model, codenamed MX11, is positioned as a mid-to-large SUV. This model is expected to be equipped with Xiaomi's self-developed motor system and features smart home, communication, and smart cockpit functions.

Image/Suspected MX11 spy photos

Source/Internet New Energy Outlook Screenshot

As for information on vehicle dimensions and power, we believe that Xiaomi Automobile will reveal them one by one in the second half of the year.

Regarding the upcoming launch of Xiaomi Automobile's first SUV, many consumers have posted on social platforms saying things like "the first Ferrari for young people," "hoping it will be even more perfect," "it will probably be another much-hyped car," and so on.

Mr. He's main usage scenario is family travel. He believes that having a spacious vehicle is a must for a family of three. Although he favors Xiaomi, sedans are not within his consideration. Now that he has heard that Xiaomi will soon launch an SUV, he is still somewhat looking forward to it.

"This is too much in line with my aesthetic sense. The unique proportion of the front and body looks perfect on an SUV model. Buying a 'Ferrari-like' car at an affordable price is a great deal," said Tang Xun, a post-95s individual.

When the veteran of the pure electric SUV market, Model Y, encounters the "rookie" Xiaomi MX11, a fierce collision between the two is inevitable.

However, this is not the first time that Tesla has faced an impact from Xiaomi.

At the end of March this year, Xiaomi SU7 officially went on sale, positioned as a "C-class high-performance ecological technology sedan" with a price range of 215,900 to 299,900 yuan. It is equipped with Qualcomm Snapdragon 8295 chips, sentinel mode, and uses Ningde Times batteries for its mid-to-high-end versions.

Lei Jun, the founder of Xiaomi Automobile, once said, "Xiaomi SU7 completely surpasses the industry-leading Tesla Model 3 in terms of configuration and will bring unprecedented intelligent travel experiences to consumers in China and globally."

From a sales perspective, Xiaomi SU7 has continued to perform well since its launch. In 43 days, it locked in over 100,000 orders; since delivery began on April 3, as of April 30, a cumulative of 7,058 new cars have been delivered.

Image/Xiaomi SU7 delivery data as of April 30

Source/Xiaomi Automobile Official Weibo New Energy Outlook Screenshot

In contrast, Tesla Model 3, once the sales leader, sold only 5,065 units in the Chinese market in April, a year-on-year and month-on-month decrease of 62% and 65%, respectively.

Image/Model 3 sales in the Chinese market in April

Source/Internet New Energy Outlook Screenshot

It is worth noting that Tesla seemed to sense the rapid advance of Xiaomi SU7. On April 21, it officially announced a price reduction of 14,000 yuan across all models, with the high-end version of Model 3 being priced 20,000 yuan lower than the high-end version of Xiaomi SU7 after the discount.

Thus, the pressure exerted by Xiaomi SU7 on Tesla is evident.

After much deliberation, Ms. Xiao from Guangzhou bought a Xiaomi SU7. She told New Energy Outlook, "I was quite attracted to the fact that Model 3 uses a large screen to control gear shifting, but I can't really tell much difference in appearance between the refreshed version and the old one, unlike SU7's high recognizability; I can wait for the long delivery period, supporting domestic brands is also worth it."

The popularity of SU7 is not only evident in China but also overseas, with high consumer attention.

In February this year, Xiaomi SU7 was also displayed at the MWC World Mobile Congress. At that time, the Xiaomi booth was crowded, forcing security personnel to implement flow control measures to ensure order.

2. Being Surrounded by a "Pack of Wolves"

With Model 3 successfully taken down, major domestic new energy brands once again set their sights on Model Y.

On May 9, Chery's Starway brand released the Star Era ET, with the pure electric version priced between 229,800 and 319,800 yuan and a range of up to 760 kilometers. In a 31.9-meter air drop test, the Star Era ET showed no significant deformation in the passenger compartment after landing, all doors could be opened, airbags could pop out normally, and there was no battery leakage or smoking, indicating a high level of safety assurance in the industry.

Image/Star Era collision test site

Source/Internet New Energy Outlook Screenshot

In mid-May, NIO released the Ledo brand and launched its first model, the Ledo L60, with a starting price of 219,900 yuan, 30,000 yuan cheaper than the Model Y. In terms of parameters, the Ledo L60 has a comprehensive energy consumption of 12.1kWh per 100 kilometers, a drag coefficient of 0.229Cd, and a standard CLTC range of 555 kilometers, presenting a comprehensive crushing advantage over the Model Y, which sold 1.2 million units annually.

Image/Ledo L60

Source/Internet New Energy Outlook Screenshot

Lantu Zhiyin, as the fourth model of the Lantu brand, is positioned as a mid-size pure electric SUV. It has completed declaration with the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and is expected to debut in the market in the third quarter of this year. It is understood that this model is developed based on the 800V silicon carbide platform, achieving a high-efficiency conversion rate of 92.5% under the CLTC standard. It can travel 450 kilometers after charging for 10 minutes. Meanwhile, in terms of intelligent driving, Lantu Zhiyin joins hands with Huawei's intelligent driving system, equipped with the Autopilot automatic assisted driving system, strongly targeting Model Y.

Image/Lantu Zhiyin

Source/Internet New Energy Outlook Screenshot

An insider from the Lantu brand said, "Lantu Zhiyin is Lantu's most important volume model this year, targeting young families, and its main competitor will be the Tesla Model Y."

Of course, as one of the "new generation" players in the automotive industry, Hongmeng Zhixing has also challenged Tesla Model Y. The Zhijie R7, a pure electric coupe SUV jointly developed by Huawei and Chery, is scheduled to launch in September this year.

Image/Zhijie R7

Source/Internet New Energy Outlook Screenshot

Mr. Zhuo, a post-80s individual, replaced his car with an Ideal L9 last year. In his view, "I used to have no interest in domestic new energy cars and only recognized Tesla. But now, brands like Ideal and Wenjie are doing quite well, successfully meeting my needs for intelligence."

"This car has excellent space, with ample headroom in the front row and 2 to 3 punches of legroom in the rear row. Three people sitting side by side won't feel cramped. At the same time, the sensitivity of performance such as acceleration and braking is also one of the reasons I chose it. But what I'm most satisfied with is its battery swap technology," said Zhao Bin, the owner of a NIO ES6.

Ms. Yan drives a Xiaopeng G6 Plus version. She said that the main reason she ultimately decided on the Xiaopeng G6 is its cost-effectiveness, after all, it is cheaper than the Tesla Model Y, and the two cars are not too different in interior design, both adopting a minimalist style.

3. Once the King, Now Aging?

Facing the influx of domestic new energy brands, Tesla's days are far from as good as imagined.

Tesla's annual net profit growth in 2023 slowed significantly compared to 128% in 2022, reaching only 19%; in the first quarter of this year, both Tesla's revenue and net profit showed year-on-year declines of 9% and 55%, respectively.

At the same time, due to factors such as declining sales, the balance between Tesla's production capacity and orders has been broken, leading to severe inventory backlog.

It has been reported that Tesla produced a cumulative total of 433,371 vehicles in the first quarter of this year and sold 386,810 vehicles, leaving nearly 50,000 new cars unsold. Compared to the same period last year, inventory increased by 30,000 vehicles, nearly reaching capacity.

Image/Tesla's production-delivery volume in the first quarter

Source/Internet New Energy Outlook Screenshot

However, behind this status quo, in addition to external factors such as the global economic environment and intensified competition in the automotive market, a significant portion of the reasons comes from Tesla's internal "arrogance".

According to statistics from the China Internet Automobile Quality Complaint Platform, from April 1 to June 26, 2024, Tesla had 27 complaints, specifically including braking system failures, steering failures, sales deception, and other aspects.

Moreover, its repeated price jumps in recent years have also disappointed both new and old owners. For example, on April 1 this year, the price of Model Y was increased by 5,000 yuan, but just 20 days later, Tesla officially announced a price reduction of 14,000 yuan across all models.

In terms of products, Tesla currently has five models: Model 3, Model Y, Model S, Model X, and Cybertruck. However, since their inception, the appearance, interior, and configuration of the Model series have not undergone significant changes.

A salesperson from a Tesla store in Beijing told New Energy Outlook, "The Model 3 and Model Y have not undergone significant changes in appearance and interior configuration since their launch, making them less prone to obsolescence. In particular, each upgrade has refined the details based on previous versions, making the models even better."

Ms. Yan, whose first car was a Model 3 and second a Model Y, considered herself a die-hard fan. However, she considered buying a new car earlier this year but decided to drop out of the fan base this time. "I have always been fond of Tesla in the early years, but in recent years, it hasn't really launched any new products. There are only a few models to choose from, and I'm almost collecting them all. It's boring. I'm looking at domestic brands like Zeekr recently and considering trying them out."

It is worth noting that the rumored refreshed Model Y scheduled for this year ultimately disappointed consumers.

Image/Model Y will not introduce a "refreshed" model in 2024

Source/Elon Musk Weibo New Energy Outlook Screenshot

This news was undoubtedly bad news for consumers who had been waiting for and holding high hopes for the refreshed Model Y. "What do I do? I was waiting to pick up the new model, but now I can only get the old one," "I will definitely wait for the refreshed version of Y, and won't consider it without ventilation," "I'm going to consider BYD Han L"

Some industry insiders believe that the Tesla Model 3 and Model Y have reached the late stage of their product life cycle, and their product strength is being surpassed by Chinese automakers.

Facing the "hundred schools of thought" Chinese new energy vehicle market, Tesla, which has gradually lost its past peak strength, is no longer as attractive as before. However, this does not mean that Chinese new energy vehicle brands can easily overtake Tesla, as its advantages in battery, motor, and electronic control technology still hold.

New Energy Outlook will continue to pay close attention to the development trend of Tesla Model Y.

(All characters in the article are pseudonyms)