Lead-in

Introduction

Indeed, owners of new energy vehicles (NEVs) tend to switch cars more frequently than those who own fuel-powered vehicles.

Early last month, the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in collaboration with Hejun Consulting, released the 2025 Annual Development Report on China's Automotive Aftermarket. While the report mainly focuses on the automotive aftermarket, it highlights an intriguing statistic:

The average age of traditional fuel-powered passenger vehicles has reached 8.2 years, with nearly 60% of these vehicles being over 7 years old. In contrast, the average age of new energy passenger vehicles is just 1.8 years, with 90% of them being between 1 and 3 years old.

Upon seeing this statistic, one might immediately question: Are NEV owners really changing their cars so frequently, on average every 1.8 years?

Upon closer inspection, this seemingly exaggerated figure does hold some weight. China's NEV industry began to take off around 2008, officially entered the mainstream around 2015, experienced explosive growth around 2021, and saw retail penetration exceed 60% by 2025. Over this decade, the industry has developed at a remarkable pace.

Moreover, if you observe the roads today, you'll notice that among vehicles around 5 years old, fuel vehicles significantly outnumber NEVs. Where are the truly "old" NEVs, such as the first-generation electric vehicles registered between 2016 and 2018? Many are likely either in the ride-hailing market or have exited the market altogether.

Fuel vehicles, on the other hand, continue to be used daily as long as they pass annual inspections, are easy to maintain, and are affordable as used cars. This is the primary difference between the two, but it's not the sole reason for the lower average age of NEVs.

01 When Cars Become Large Electronic Devices

Nevertheless, numerous analytical reports have pointed out that NEV owners do indeed change their cars more frequently than fuel vehicle owners.

According to the White Paper on Consumer Insights into Vehicle Trade-Ins, jointly released by Dongchedi and China Automotive Information Technology Co., Ltd., 70% of fuel vehicle users have a replacement cycle of over 5 years, with 33% replacing their vehicles between 5 and 8 years and 37% after 8 years. In contrast, 90% of NEV users replace their vehicles within 5 years.

Data previously released by the China Automobile Dealers Association also indicates that the replacement cycle for traditional fuel vehicles is 6 to 8 years, while for NEVs, it is only 3 to 5 years. As many commentators have observed, cars are increasingly resembling fast-moving consumer goods, especially among younger demographics, where the pursuit of new technological experiences shortens the willingness to hold onto a vehicle.

The reasons for this gap, while superficially attributed to NEV owners' preference for novelty, actually stem from a fundamental shift in the automotive industry's underlying logic as it transitions from fuel vehicles to NEVs. This shift has also altered consumer purchasing attitudes, particularly among those born in the tech era.

During the fuel vehicle era, a vehicle's core competitiveness lay in its engine, chassis, and transmission—the three key components of a typical mechanical industrial product. Their iteration followed physical laws and engineering experience accumulation cycles, often requiring five to eight years for a truly meaningful generational update.

Consequently, a fuel vehicle driven for a decade or more would not feel significantly technologically outdated, as long as it was fuel-efficient and durable. The differences between older and newer models were primarily in design and configuration. This lack of generational leap in the driving experience is why fuel vehicles tend to have higher average ages.

NEVs, however, are entirely different. Their three key components have become the battery, electric motor, and electronic control system, supplemented by chips and in-vehicle infotainment systems, leading consumers to refer to them as large electronic devices. Electronic devices inherently have a rapid iteration cycle, with updates far surpassing the capabilities of existing products.

Similarly, the replacement cycle for NEVs has been compressed from the traditional 5 to 7 years for fuel vehicles to 18 to 24 months. McKinsey data shows that Chinese emerging automakers have reduced the time from concept verification to mass production of new models to about 24 months, half the 40 to 50 months required by traditional automakers. Some NEV brands can even complete the process from project initiation to mass production in just 18 months.

According to incomplete statistics, over 230 new models were launched in 2025 alone. In March 2026, nearly 80 automotive industry launch events took place, with over 60 new models introduced. This phenomenon is no longer a proactive consideration for automakers but has become a standard practice, forcing them to passively follow suit to remain competitive.

When "facelifts every six months and generational updates every year" become the industry norm, the direct consequence is that existing owners frequently experience a decline in their vehicle's appeal due to short-cycle updates. Some NEV owners report that after only four years of use, their vehicle's infotainment chip can no longer support new systems due to insufficient computing power. When they visit the used car market, dealers bluntly state that "although this car is only four years old, it's already considered quite old."

Thus, on one hand, the precipitous decline in residual values prompts many owners at the 3- to 4-year mark to consider replacing their vehicles, preferring to trade in a depreciating asset sooner rather than later. On the other hand, rapid updates in smart cockpits and autonomous driving technologies diminish the appeal of older models, with young, tech-savvy consumers willing to upgrade for the latest features.

When an owner discovers that a higher-configured, lower-priced version of their vehicle model is released less than three months after purchase, the resulting sense of betrayal inevitably shortens their psychological expectation of holding onto the current vehicle. Therefore, NEV owners do indeed have a shorter replacement cycle than fuel vehicle owners.

02 Market Growth Compresses the Average

Of course, the above analysis is theoretical and emotional. In reality, we must still consider economic factors. The vast majority of owners' replacement decisions are influenced by vehicle depreciation and consumption patterns. Thus, the 1.8-year average age of NEVs must be understood from another perspective.

As mentioned at the beginning of the article, the explosive growth of China's NEV industry has primarily occurred in the last five years. From 2021 to 2025, the penetration rate of NEVs in China surged from less than 15% to over 50%, officially entering a market-dominant phase.

According to statistics from the Ministry of Public Security, by the end of 2025, the number of NEVs in China reached 43.97 million. However, in 2025 alone, retail sales of NEV passenger vehicles reached 12.809 million. This means that nearly 30% of NEVs on the road were added within that single year.

It is thus easy to calculate that the average age of these vehicles at the time of statistics was generally less than 1 year. Even among the cumulative stock from 2024 and earlier, most NEVs are only 2 to 3 years old. This explains why 90% of vehicles fall within the 1- to 3-year age bracket. It is not that NEV owners change their cars more frequently but that the high volume of recent new car sales has lowered the average age.

The sustained growth of NEV sales is compressing and eroding the market share of fuel vehicles. The 8.2-year average age of traditional fuel passenger vehicles and the nearly 60% share of vehicles over 7 years old indicate that the fuel vehicle market has entered a stock phase. Thus, new vehicle sales are limited, and a large number of long-aged vehicles remain on the road.

This judgment is also validated by the transaction structure in the used car market. Reports show that in 2025, the average age of used cars sold rose to 8.2 years, up 0.3 years from 7.9 years in 2024. Among them, the average age of used fuel vehicles was 8.6 years, while that of used NEVs was 3.4 years, both showing slight increases from 2024.

Other reports also indicate that 90% of NEV users replace their vehicles within 5 years; data from the China Automobile Dealers Association similarly points to a 3- to 5-year replacement cycle. Early electric vehicle models are gradually entering a 4- to 6-year replacement window. Even with the fastest technological iterations, the mainstream replacement rhythm for NEV owners remains every 3 to 5 years.

Returning to the original question: Do NEV owners change their cars frequently? The answer is yes, compared to fuel vehicle owners. However, the more noteworthy trend is that as early NEVs gradually enter the replacement window, they will follow the same path as fuel vehicles, transitioning from a growth market to a stock competition phase.

So, how should automakers gain more market share? Should they continue to attract consumers with rapidly iterated products? Or should they encourage repeat purchases from new and existing owners through trade-in policies? One thing is certain: betraying existing owners is no longer viable, as the value of an automotive brand essentially reflects consumer attitudes toward it.

Especially as NEV products become increasingly homogenized, there is little room to differentiate based on product features alone. More often, consumers focus on a brand's image and the depth of the relationship between automakers and users. While NEVs can be considered large electronic devices, they are certainly not fast-moving consumer goods. Gaining consumer trust and confidence is paramount.