Nissan Brand May Only Survive for 12-14 Months, or Be 'Acquired in Disguise' by Honda?

Nissan is in 'Emergency Mode,' UK Media Claims Its Brand Has Only 12-14 Months to Live, Needing Cash Flow from Japanese and US Markets to Save Itself, After Renault Was Forced to Sell Its Nissan Shares, Nissan Now Needs to Seek New Investors.

Are These Alarmist Statements?

These statements are quoted by the Financial Times from two senior executives within the company. One executive said, 'We have 12 to 14 months to survive. We need Japan and the US to generate cash.'

So Why Is Nissan Still in Crisis?

That leads us to the current state of Japanese automakers.

Firstly, with the price war competition of electric vehicles in China and global market expansion, especially in China, the world's largest auto market, Toyota, Honda, Nissan, and Mazda have all retreated. In the emerging Southeast Asian market, the market share of Japanese automakers has also dropped from over 50% in 2019 to 35%.

Even worse, Japanese automakers' financial reports, known for their profitability, have almost completely collapsed.

According to Nissan's financial report, operating revenue for the first half of fiscal year 2025 was JPY 5.98 trillion, a year-on-year decrease of 1.3%; operating profit was JPY 32.908 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 90.2%; net profit was only JPY 19.223 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 93.5%; and operating profit margin was only 0.5%, compared to 5.6% in the same period.

Under the dual pressure of increasing competition in the global automotive market and declining sales, Nissan has had to take emergency measures to turn around its performance, including reducing global production capacity by 20% and laying off 9,000 employees. It also plans to sell part of its stake in Mitsubishi, reducing it from the current 34% to 24%, to improve the company's liquidity.

With Nissan's fate hanging in the balance, who will become its 'savior'?

Much attention is focused on Honda as a potential buyer.

This is because Carlos Ghosn, the former CEO of Nissan and chairman of Mitsubishi, revealed that Honda is planning to 'acquire' Nissan and Mitsubishi in disguise. He believes that Honda, as the largest of Japan's three major automakers, will 'control' the situation in this alliance.

Some also ask why Dongfeng Motor doesn't acquire some shares if Nissan lacks funds?

Think about it, to get rid of Renault's control, Nissan has tried every possible means in recent years. Would it allow Chinese capital to inject funds?

Japanese and Korean automakers have strong self-esteem. SAIC Motor's acquisition of Ssangyong is a failed example.

In summary, while the Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi alliance still exists, Nissan and Mitsubishi have also formed an alliance with Honda. Now there are rumors that Honda may acquire Nissan more seamlessly?

Which model will it be?

The form of cooperation between Nissan and Honda has not been disclosed yet. It could be a 'formal alliance' similar to the one between Ford and Volkswagen, which does not require asset integration, or a 'deep alliance' similar to the tight asset integration of Renault, Nissan, and Mitsubishi. Which one do you prefer? Feel free to leave a comment...