Introduction

The intricacies of automobile manufacturing are mirrored in the founder's rapidly aging visage.

"So, this is what it means to enter the 2.0 stage of entrepreneurship."

On the afternoon of December 11, Beijing time, JiYue CEO Xia Yiping distributed an internal memo to all employees. From the contents alone, one might surmise that this new automotive entrant was still striving and grasping at straws to survive. However, the ultimate fate awaiting all staff was laid bare: immediate termination of social security, forced resignation, and immediate dissolution of the company.

Amazing, truly amazing.

Even in its final moments, JiYue managed to pen thousands of words to sanitize the situation and foster an aura of hope. JiYue's actions are perplexing and ruthless, and they also expose the harshness of China's automotive market this year.

Predictably, with intensifying internal competition, many more fragile players like JiYue will crumble on the journey ahead. Next year, the ultimate showdown is already unfolding.

Regarding the beginning of this article, dedicating significant space to the aforementioned case is primarily intended to better introduce today's protagonist—another automotive newcomer perpetually ensnared in public scrutiny and controversy: NIO.

Looking back at its performance over the past 300 days, it can perhaps be described as a "mixed bag." Little did we know that just yesterday afternoon, NIO held a routine media briefing. As founder and CEO, Li Bin sincerely revealed this year's triumphs and tribulations, along with strategies and plans for the upcoming year.

As a witness, I listened to the entire three-hour, twelve-minute session encompassing 203 questions. My primary impression was: "This leader is visibly aging, yet NIO, which just celebrated its 10th anniversary, has yet to mature and remains distant from the eagerly anticipated turning point. Fortunately, despite the challenges ahead, numerous positive signs are emerging."

Regarding automobile manufacturing, Li Bin consistently exudes sincerity and dedication, which is precisely NIO's greatest strength. The following passages will focus on sharing several responses I deemed noteworthy.

First, grading this year's performance.

"I can only give it a maximum of 60 points. NIO's performance is indeed imperfect. The scoring points include learning from past lessons and successfully launching a multi-brand strategy. The losing points are in systematic efficiency and gross margin, which could have been better."

Without excessive concealment, Li Bin reflected sincerely.

Indeed, as an automotive newcomer established over a decade ago, NIO still appears somewhat naive and overly idealistic in certain aspects, seeming somewhat out of place in such a harsh environment.

This year, it was anticipated that with the acquisition of LeDao, NIO would swiftly enter a positive cycle spurred by a significant quantitative shift. However, it ultimately fell short.

Nonetheless, due to the slowing growth of the pure electric vehicle market, it still achieved certain results with limited strategic resources. Especially for the NIO brand, applause must be given for its share in the high-end pure electric vehicle market. The precise introduction of the new BaaS policy, continuous refinement of the energy replenishment network, and deepening of the service system all contributed to vehicle sales.

Regardless, the result is not too dismal.

According to Li Bin's assurance in the interview, "In the last month, the NIO brand's delivery volume will definitely exceed 20,000 units, and LeDao L60's delivery volume will exceed 10,000 units for the first time." In other words, NIO will conclude this year with a total score of over 220,000 vehicles.

It's worth noting that these figures were achieved without external support and are entirely self-developed.

Second, regarding the second brand.

This aspect has perhaps been NIO's most criticized recently. In response, Li Bin admitted it did not meet external expectations. However, for a brand-new vehicle to exceed 10,000 units in production in the third month is emotionally and rationally acceptable. Nevertheless, who can blame competitors debuting simultaneously for being overly prepared on the manufacturing front, making LeDao L60 appear somewhat "lagging."

"Our goal of exceeding 20,000 units in March next year remains unchanged. LeDao will also launch a large five-seat SUV and a six-seat SUV in the third and fourth quarters of next year, respectively. This time, we've learned from past mistakes and are stocking up inventory in advance, incorporating everyone's suggestions."

From Li Bin's words, we undoubtedly received the assurance we sought.

In my opinion, LeDao is crucial, with a low "fault tolerance rate." As NIO's foray into the mainstream market, if it can firmly establish a foothold in the terminal and cultivate a so-called "hit" product, many of NIO's current "pain points" will be resolved.

Conversely, if LeDao continues to underperform, the entire company will be dragged into a deeper quagmire.

Third, let's discuss Firefly.

As everyone knows, Li Bin is already the father of three children. The "third child" he personally nurtured, Firefly, will officially meet the public at the upcoming NIO Day on December 21, Beijing time.

In the interview, Li Bin provided advanced spoilers regarding Firefly. For instance, as the third brand, it features only one product; its sales and service channels are shared with NIO but will have an independent battery swap system; agility, trust, and ingenuity are the product concepts it pursues...

Comparatively, the most intriguing aspect is Firefly's pricing. Although Li Bin did not explicitly state it, he hinted that it would be comparable to a pure electric MINI.

A lesser-known fact is that the latter's official price has already dipped below 150,000 yuan after a price reduction. Assuming Firefly is roughly priced similarly but boasts significantly stronger overall capabilities and the BaaS advantage, do you think it, as a boutique pure electric vehicle, can make a significant impact?

Li Bin is clearly optimistic.

Fourth, the prospects for the flagship ET9.

It's undeniable that launching a pure electric executive flagship sedan with a pre-sale price of 800,000 yuan in the current economically uncertain environment is undoubtedly a risky decision.

But NIO proceeded regardless.

After a year of development, the ET9 is poised to enter the final stages of launch and delivery. In the interview, besides excitedly describing the technical excellence and groundbreaking nature of this "big guy," Li Bin also made surprising sales target predictions.

"It will be challenging to surpass the Mercedes-Benz S-Class but should sell better than the Audi A8 and BMW 7 Series."

It's evident that the NIO brand is increasingly assaulting the heartland of BBA. However, rationally and objectively, having confidence is commendable, but whether the ET9 can alter the long-established pattern in this segment remains highly uncertain.

After all, the NIO ET5 also attempted to disrupt the BMW 3 Series once.

Fifth, next year and beyond.

In fact, as early as last month's internal letter, Li Bin set two goals: double sales next year and achieve profitability the year after. Yesterday afternoon, he elaborated further on these points.

"Doubling sales next year, i.e., achieving 440,000 units, won't be overly pressuring. Relying on the NIO brand and LeDao, we can probably hit the mark, and don't forget Firefly's contribution. NIO's internal expectations are even higher."

"Achieving profitability the year after is our bottom line. If we fail, it will be unacceptable. The methods are quite simple: increase sales, boost gross margin, and enhance operational efficiency."

Li Bin's resolute determination is evident in every word. I believe he's acutely aware that the next 700 days will determine his fate.

As an observer, I simply want to say: "Don't disappoint those who care about you." After all, no matter how much confidence one has, it will eventually wane. The deeper the affection, the stricter the criticism. I sincerely hope NIO can stand tall and silence the doubters with compelling achievements.

Finally, I must point out that the protagonist of today's article, focusing on intelligent driving, has its values and does not wish to engage excessively in current marketing chaos. The end-to-end version based on the world model has commenced internal testing and will be rolled out to vehicles on a large scale as soon as possible. Simultaneously, the first product of the battery swap alliance partner has undergone winter testing.

Moreover, according to Li Bin's personal assessment, "It's not impossible for the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in China's automotive market to exceed 75% next year. Amidst the wave of the gasoline-to-electric transition, industry resources are destined to concentrate among top-tier players. As leaders forge ahead, the gap between them and those trailing will widen further."

In other words, once left behind, demise is inevitable. This is not alarmist; reality is as harsh. And because of this, alongside the deepening wrinkles on the leader's face, the challenge of advancing to the final chapter has intensified.

In summary: "Li Bin ages, NIO must mature swiftly."