The MPV market in 2024 failed to ignite the anticipated explosion. According to data from the China Passenger Car Association, MPV sales totaled 1,087,625 units, marking a slight 0.5% year-on-year decline, in contrast to the 15.9% growth recorded in 2023. Among the top 15 MPVs in sales, only Toyota Sienna, Gracia, Lantu Dreamer, and Zeekr 009 registered positive growth, with the rest experiencing varying degrees of decline.

In terms of rankings and sales, Tengshi D9 was the sole model to surpass the 100,000-unit mark throughout 2024. After relinquishing its championship title in 2023, Buick GL8 dipped below the 100,000-unit threshold in 2024, being overtaken by Toyota Sienna and slipping to third place. Among the top five, Tengshi D9 and Trumpchi M8 were the only independent brand models, maintaining a 2:3 ratio with joint venture models. This underscores the temporary stabilization of the market by the joint venture camp, thanks to their aggressive pricing strategies.

However, the outlook for 2025 remains uncertain. With BYD's Xia already launched, GL8 pushing ahead comprehensively, and Tengshi D9 recently refreshed, competition in the market is intensifying.

01 Dreamer Outpaces Tengshi, Joint Ventures Counterattack

Monthly data from 2024 revealed new dynamics and highlights in the MPV landscape. Let's first examine the rivalry between sales champion Tengshi D9 and the "dark horse" Lantu Dreamer. Since its 2022 launch, Tengshi D9 swiftly overtook models like Buick GL8 and Toyota Sienna to become the MPV market's "new king." Prior to the first half of 2024, Tengshi D9 consistently maintained monthly sales above 10,000 units. However, in the second half, its sales began to wane.

The all-new Lantu Dreamer, launched in September, witnessed continuous sales growth due to comprehensive upgrades in intelligence, comfort, range, and safety. Amid the fierce competition posed by the new Lantu Dreamer, Tengshi D9 lagged behind for three consecutive months. From October to December 2024, the new Lantu Dreamer sold 7,808, 8,039, and 10,116 units, respectively, compared to Tengshi D9's 7,381, 6,100, and 10,006 units. Tengshi D9's sudden sales surge in December was partly attributed to pre-new-model discounts on older versions.

At the end of 2024, the 2025 model of Tengshi D9 was introduced. The key upgrade in the new model is the enhancement of its intelligence capabilities, with the "Divine Eye" intelligent driving system now standard across the lineup. In contrast, the new Lantu Dreamer offers two intelligent driving system options: the self-developed Kunpeng version and the Huawei-cooperated Qiankun version. The rivalry between these two models is set to continue in 2025.

Buick GL8, once the dominant player, launched a plug-in hybrid model in April this year and commenced deliveries in June. Leveraging its reputation from the fuel era, GL8 PHEV's monthly sales have stabilized at 3,000-4,000 units. Currently, the ratio of fuel and plug-in hybrid models in GL8's sales mix is nearly 1:1. The timely introduction of the plug-in hybrid version has helped GL8 retain a significant portion of its core market, with sales at times exceeding supply.

Classic MPV models such as Toyota's Sienna/Gracia, Honda's Odyssey/Elysion, and Volkswagen's Viloran have yet to introduce plug-in hybrid versions, relying instead on fuel versions (including mild hybrids) to maintain their market presence. Without plug-in hybrid models to share the load, these models rely on terminal discounts to compete for market share. For instance, the 2024 Sienna model saw an official price reduction of RMB 25,000 across the lineup, with additional dealership discounts of RMB 30,000-40,000. The Odyssey hybrid's starting price has fallen to RMB 193,800.

Currently, the entire Japanese MPV market remains robust, particularly Toyota's two MPV models, which consistently maintain high sales due to their reliable product quality.

02 Multiple Pure Electric MPVs "Stall"

In the broader MPV market, pure electric vehicles have yet to become the new mainstream, with market expansion proving challenging. Key pure electric MPV models in 2024 included Xpeng X9, Lixiang MEGA, and Zeekr 009. Among them, Xpeng X9 performed impressively during its pre-launch period, with monthly sales nearing 4,000 units thanks to its intelligent driving and standard rear-wheel steering features. However, in the second half of the year, sales hovered around 1,400 units, failing to stand out in the MPV market.

MEGA, aiming to be the "sales champion across all categories above RMB 500,000," stumbled upon its March launch, even disrupting the sales rhythm of Lixiang's L series. In terms of sales, MEGA has consistently maintained monthly sales in the three digits since its inception. Towards the end of the year, MEGA's sales rebounded, exceeding 1,000 units in December, roughly on par with Xpeng X9.

Zeekr 009 emerged as the brightest star in the pure electric MPV market following a facelift in the second half of the year. In its inaugural year of launch in 2023, Zeekr 009's monthly sales hovered around 1,500-2,000 units. Entering 2024, sales noticeably declined, with monthly sales averaging around 500 units in the first half. After the July facelift, Zeekr 009's sales momentum was robust, surpassing 3,000 units for five consecutive months from August to December, including a peak of 4,201 units in November, outperforming classic fuel MPV models like the Odyssey.

As a pure electric MPV priced above RMB 450,000, Zeekr 009's performance is commendable. However, whether it can sustain stable sales remains to be seen. Additionally, there is high external demand for a plug-in hybrid/extended-range version of Zeekr 009. It is conceivable that such a model would not only address the primary concern of energy replenishment for pure electric MPVs but also allow for a further price reduction, potentially pushing sales to new heights.

Another highly anticipated pure electric product from Zeekr is the Zeekr MIX, which is technically also an MPV model. This model garnered significant attention due to its innovative design features such as hidden B-pillars, rotating seats, floating opposing doors, and in-car hot pot marketing. However, user interest must translate into sales. In the first full month after its launch (November), Zeekr MIX sold only 549 units, with sales halving to 277 units in December. While the product is indeed innovative in design, it is destined not to be a high-volume model.

03 Conclusion

The launch of the new Tengshi D9 at the end of last year and BYD Xia's entry at the beginning of this year signal that competition in the MPV market will intensify further in 2025. Despite Tengshi D9's recent sales decline, its position in the MPV market has been established, and the new model is poised to attract users back. BYD Xia, priced between RMB 249,800 and RMB 309,800, could be the biggest "wildcard" in the MPV market landscape in 2025. Although BYD has yet to release sales data, media reports indicate a current delivery wait time of at least 45 days after ordering.

The Xia and Tengshi D9 models will jointly cover the MPV market segment priced between RMB 250,000 and RMB 450,000, offering consumers a richer selection. With BYD's aggressive start to the year, other models must be prepared to respond. Internal competition between Xia and Tengshi D9 is also a major concern. Additionally, brands such as Exeed and NIO plan to enter the MPV market, making the entire landscape increasingly dynamic. However, it is expected that the "internal combustion engine + electric motor" combination will remain the predominant direction in the MPV market.