Produced by: Huabo Business Review

Hefei, once dubbed as one of the "least significant provincial capital cities" in China, has gained significant attention in recent years.

The "Hefei Model" has been emulated by various localities, and Hefei has emerged as the top city in population growth in 2023. The director of the Finance Department of Hefei Municipal Finance Bureau once stated, "Every week, people from all over the country come to Hefei to exchange experiences in project investment promotion."

According to official data, the permanent resident population of Hefei reached 9.853 million in 2023, an increase of 219,000 compared to 2022. This increment even surpassed Changsha, which was the "top city in China's population growth" in 2022 (181,000 people), and far exceeded cities like Hangzhou, Ningbo, and Nanjing, making Hefei the new champion in population growth.

Not only has the population increased, but the quality of Hefei's population has also significantly improved. According to 2023 statistics, more than 27,000 people out of every 100,000 in Hefei have received university education, which is about 1.8 times the national average. At the same time, among every 10,000 employed individuals, the number of R&D personnel exceeds 180, which is about twice the national average. These data fully demonstrate Hefei's significant improvement in economic potential and scientific research and innovation capabilities, making this provincial capital city in Anhui Province increasingly attractive to talents.

In recent years, Hefei has experienced strong population growth momentum and is expected to continue to grow in the future. According to the "Hefei City Territorial Spatial Master Plan (2021-2035)" (draft for public consultation), by 2035, the permanent resident population of Hefei is expected to exceed 13 million, with the actual service population exceeding 15 million. Among them, over 93% of the population will reside in cities and towns at all levels, with a population of over 12 million.

01

The Road to Reversal of the "Big County Town"

In 2000, Hefei's GDP was less than 40 billion yuan, ranking outside the top 80 cities in China, and was ridiculed as a "big county town" by the outside world.

In 2011, Hefei's GDP was only 364.23 billion yuan, but by 2021, its economic aggregate reached 1.14 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 9.2%, ranking 19th in the country. This means that in the past decade, Hefei's economic growth rate has reached 213%. In just a few decades, Hefei has achieved a magnificent transformation from a "county town" to a GDP trillion-level metropolis at an astonishing speed.

How could Hefei, a city that is neither coastal nor bordering, achieve rapid economic rise and become the champion in population growth under the strong siphon effect of the Yangtze River Delta? The answer lies in its unique "Hefei Model" - a city development strategy resembling that of an investment bank.

In 2008, Hefei decided to suspend subway construction and boldly invested one-third of its fiscal revenue in BOE, which was experiencing declining market value and continuous losses at the time. This investment resulted in the construction of China's first 6th-generation LCD panel production line. Today, BOE has grown into a giant with annual revenue of billions of yuan and has become a标志性 enterprise of Hefei.

In 2016, Hefei made another move, collaborating with GigaDevice Innovation to jointly launch the Changxin Memory Chip Independent Manufacturing Project with a total investment of up to 150 billion yuan, thus creating a new situation for the country in this field.

By 2020, Hefei Construction Investment Group and the three-tier state-owned asset platform jointly raised 7 billion yuan in funds to provide timely assistance to NIO, which was in distress. Since then, with the entry of industry giants such as BYD and Volkswagen and their supporting enterprises, Hefei is gradually emerging as a "new energy vehicle capital."

Through this series of forward-looking investments and collaborations, Hefei has not only achieved considerable investment returns but also successfully promoted the expansion and upgrading of local industrial chains.

Today, Hefei is known as the "Venture Capital City" on the internet, referring not only to its successful investments in industrial development but also to its far-sighted vision in the field of education. In 1970, Hefei accepted the University of Science and Technology of China (USTC), which had to relocate from Beijing. Later, this university, which attracts "genius teenagers" from across the country, has provided continuous talent and intellectual support for Hefei's development. Therefore, the introduction of USTC is considered by many as Hefei's "most valuable long-term investment" in history.

Thanks to the full support of USTC, Hefei has made significant progress in basic research and technological innovation. In 2004, Hefei was approved by the Ministry of Science and Technology to become the country's first pilot city for scientific and technological innovation. By 2017, Hefei took a further step and became the second comprehensive national science center city after Shanghai. In 2022, Hefei occupied 8 seats among the 38 major scientific devices in the country, ranking first in the country, surpassing Beijing's 7 and Shanghai's 5. At the same time, Hefei has 138 academicians from the Chinese Academy of Sciences and the Chinese Academy of Engineering, as well as nearly 2 million talent reserves of various types. It is worth mentioning that IFLYTEK, a leading enterprise in China's AI field, also emerged from USTC.

02

The Rise of the Central and Western Regions

In fact, most of the cities with the fastest population growth in recent years are provincial capitals, and most of them are located in the central and western regions.

Specifically, from 2021 to 2023, the champions in population growth were Wuhan, Changsha, and Hefei, all of which are located in the central and western regions. Among these cities, Zhengzhou, Wuhan, Hefei, and Chengdu have performed particularly well, with their populations continuing to grow, enabling these cities to rise in the national population ranking and even surpass some economically more developed cities.

In 2023, Zhengzhou's permanent resident population exceeded 13 million for the first time, surpassing Suzhou's 12.958 million and successfully entering the top ten cities in terms of population in the country. It is also worth noting that Wuhan's permanent resident population has surpassed Tianjin in the past few years, and Hefei's population has also surpassed Ningbo, and both cities have maintained a continuous leading edge.

Even more remarkable is the population competition between Chengdu and Beijing. As a strong contender for the third-largest city in China, Chengdu's population is rapidly approaching that of Beijing. In 2023, Chengdu's population reached 21.403 million, while Beijing's population was approximately 21.858 million. The population gap between the two cities has narrowed from over 5 million at its peak to only 455,000.

Population growth is closely related to urban economic development. Only economic development and the provision of sufficient jobs can attract and retain talents.

From 2000 to 2022, the economic比重of the central and western regions increased from 20% and 17% to 22% and 21%, respectively. In addition, since 2010, among the major economically strong cities and provincial capital cities, half of the 10 cities with the fastest GDP growth are located in the central and western regions, with Guiyang experiencing the largest growth. This data fully demonstrates the economic vitality and development potential of the central and western regions, which are precisely the factors driving the rapid population growth in these regions.