Written by / Daoge

Source / Node AI

SpaceX's record is about to be broken, just months after its market debut.

According to multiple media reports, Anthropic has secretly submitted its S-1 prospectus to the U.S. SEC, planning to officially list on Nasdaq after the U.S. midterm elections in November. This time, its ambitions are staggering: raising up to $100 billion with a target valuation exceeding $2 trillion.

What does that mean? When SpaceX went public in June this year, it raised $85.7 billion with a valuation of $1.77 trillion—already the largest IPO in history. Anthropic's move instantly raises the bar by an order of magnitude. If successful, this will be the largest public offering in human history—period.

But here's the question: This company reported a net loss of $42 billion in 2025 on just $4.6 billion in revenue. Why is Wall Street valuing it at $2 trillion?

Let's unpack the logic behind this "IPO of the century" and what it means for the entire AI industry—and for Chinese entrepreneurs.

The $2 Trillion Valuation Alchemy: Revenue Surges 12-Fold, Losses Surge Even Faster

First, let's look at the numbers. You might think you're misreading the decimal points.

In 2025, Anthropic reported $4.6 billion in revenue, up 12-fold year-over-year. Its annualized revenue run rate (ARR) has soared to approximately $65 billion. For context, OpenAI's annualized revenue last year was just over RMB 100 billion. Anthropic's growth rate ranks among the highest in tech history.

Even more staggering is its valuation trajectory. In May this year, Anthropic completed its Series H funding at a post-money valuation of $965 billion, already surpassing OpenAI. Just five months later, its IPO target valuation has doubled to $2 trillion—a 100% increase in five months. This isn't fundraising; it's printing money.

But on the flip side are equally astonishing losses. In 2025, net losses reached approximately $42 billion. Of this, about $34 billion were non-cash accounting expenses—essentially paper gains from rising valuation, not actual cash burned. Even so, real operating losses exceeded $8 billion.

Revenue up 12-fold, losses up even faster. This mirrors Amazon's playbook in its heyday: burn cash relentlessly for growth, trading future stories for today's valuation.

So what's Anthropic's story?

The answer is computing power. The prospectus reveals that Anthropic has already signed approximately $518 billion in future computing power and infrastructure commitments, with 80% non-cancellable. What does that mean? It's betting the next decade's ammunition on GPUs. If AI demand explodes, these computing resources become money printers. If demand falls short, they become a millstone.

Moreover, Anthropic's revenue structure hides a vulnerability: Nearly half (47%) of its revenue comes through distribution channels like Amazon Web Services and Google Cloud, while nearly a quarter comes from just two major clients. What does this imply? For all its talk of independence, its lifeline is held by tech giants.

Beyond SpaceX: Coronation of a New AI Era or Signal of Peak Bubble?

Many compare Anthropic to SpaceX—both are "hard tech + super unicorn" stories. But the comparisons fall apart under scrutiny.

SpaceX's valuation logic is "real revenue + future options": It has Starlink cash flow, launch service orders, and NASA contracts. Its $1.77 trillion valuation, while steep, is tangible.

Anthropic is different. At a $2 trillion valuation with $65 billion in annualized revenue, its price-to-sales (PS) ratio hits 30.8x. For context, SaaS star Snowflake trades at 8-10x forward PS, while NVIDIA trades at just over 20x. Anthropic is priced higher than NVIDIA.

Wall Street's rationale: Look past today to 2028. Anthropic forecasts $190-200 billion in revenue by then. At that level, its PS ratio drops to about 10x—"reasonable."

But how credible is this forecast?

Research firms like PitchBook pour cold water: While leaked financials show rapid growth, they don't justify a $2 trillion valuation. To sustain it, Anthropic must simultaneously: boost gross margins, retain major clients, and exceed computing utilization targets. Failure in any area could halve its valuation.

Even more intriguing is the timing. Why after the November midterms?

Political calculus looms large. AI regulatory policies are being debated in Congress. An IPO before the election carries too much regulatory uncertainty. Post-election, policy direction becomes clearer, allowing for more confident pricing. This suggests Anthropic's valuation includes a hefty "policy risk premium" beyond pure market pricing.

Another overlooked detail: Anthropic's risk factors section actually lists "AI may threaten human existence." A company going public cites "human extinction" as a risk—you could call it honesty, or call it covering its bases: "We warned you."

This dual role—player and referee—epitomizes this AI bubble: Crazy Financing (raise capital Crazy ly) while Crazy 喊风险 (screaming about risks Crazy ly).

Three Signals for China's AI Industry: Amid the Euphoria, Where Are the Opportunities?

Anthropic's IPO isn't just a U.S. capital markets event. It sends three critical signals to Chinese AI entrepreneurs, investors, and even retail investors.

Signal 1: The large language model (LLM) business model has finally received capital markets' "endorsement."

For years, China has debated: Can LLMs ever be profitable? BAT has invested hundreds of billions, but where's the revenue? Anthropic's financials—$42 billion in losses but 12-fold revenue growth—tell Wall Street: Forget profits for now, focus on growth. As long as growth is fast enough, losses are "strategic investments."

This benefits Chinese LLM firms—now they have a valuation benchmark. Future fundraising can simply apply Anthropic's PS multiples. But the flip side: If Anthropic's stock collapses post-IPO, the global LLM valuation framework will crumble. Chinese firms will find it harder to sell "long-term stories."

Signal 2: The ceiling for the computing power arms race is being redefined.

$518 billion in computing commitments—what does that mean? Roughly RMB 3.7 trillion. This isn't corporate spending; it's national budget-scale investment. When an AI firm's computing purchases exceed a country's military spending, "computing power is national power" ceases to be a slogan.

For China, this is pressure—and motivation. Blocked from advanced GPUs, we must innovate in domestic alternatives, model efficiency, and applications. The crazier Anthropic gets, the clearer it becomes that computing power is this era's oil—and China must control its own supply.

Signal 3: The "graduation season" for AI unicorns has arrived, but graduation ≠ safety.

Anthropic's listing marks the first AI unicorns entering public market pricing. Next will be OpenAI, xAI, Mistral... What does this mean?

The AI industry is transitioning from "private fundraising storytelling" to "public market accountability." Stock prices fluctuate daily, quarterly earnings reports expose all, and missing targets triggers sell-offs. PPT-based fundraising won't suffice; every dollar of revenue must justify itself to shareholders.

For Chinese entrepreneurs, this is a crucial reference: Don't envy Anthropic's $2 trillion valuation—see the pressures behind it: $518 billion in computing debt, client concentration risks, policy uncertainties. When bubbles inflate, everyone wins. When they burst, the slowest pay.

Epilogue

What does $2 trillion represent? It equals Italy's GDP, or a quarter of China's A-share market cap. A five-year-old, deeply unprofitable company seeking this valuation in public markets—call it a miracle of human innovation, or call it Wall Street's collective madness.

But history teaches us: Bubbles and revolutions are two sides of the same coin. The railway bubble birthed modern logistics; the dot-com bubble birthed Google and Amazon. This AI bubble may well produce a company that changes the world.

The question remains—will it be Anthropic?

November will tell.