Apple has finally unveiled its foldable phone, the iPhone Duo.

The general consensus surrounding this device is that it’s somewhat of a follower in design. After all, nearly all the features of the iPhone Duo can be traced back to various foldable models from Samsung, Huawei, and other competitors.

In fact, this has long been Apple’s strategy: when a new technological innovation first emerges, Apple tends to hold back. It only enters the market once the industry supply chain has matured and the technology has been refined. The iPhone Duo is no exception to this approach.

Furthermore, once the technology is mature and the industry supply chain is well-established, Apple, leveraging its strong brand influence, loyal fan base, and some incremental innovations, can often capture a substantial market share from competitors, positioning itself as a major player in the field.

And competitors can often only voice their grievances without much practical recourse.

So, can Apple capture market share from competitors like Samsung and Huawei with the launch of the iPhone Duo this year?

Recently, an agency suggested that once Apple’s foldable phone hits the market, it could secure 25% of the global market share in just three months, becoming the world’s second-largest player, surpassing Huawei and trailing only Samsung.

The specific data is illustrated above, representing Counterpoint’s forecast for 2026. It predicts that Samsung will hold a 38% share this year, Apple 25%, Huawei 22%, and Motorola 6%.

Apple’s share will be 3 percentage points higher than Huawei’s. It’s worth noting that Apple’s iPhone Duo will only be released in September and officially launched in October. The actual sales period in 2026 will be less than three months, closer to two and a half months.

Moreover, in some countries and regions, sales will not commence until late October, meaning only two months of sales. Can it truly become the world’s second-largest in such a short span? Is that an overestimation?

Of course, this is merely Counterpoint’s forecast and may not be entirely accurate. After all, the iPhone Duo has just been released, and specifics are still unknown. However, it cannot be denied that it still holds some reference value.

Some netizens have also pointed out that this outcome is related to the sales regions of Huawei and Apple. Currently, Huawei’s sales are almost exclusively concentrated in the Chinese market, while Apple’s are global. Once the Apple iPhone Duo is launched, it will likely capture a significant portion of Huawei’s foldable phone market in China, while Huawei will struggle to compete with Apple on a global scale. The situation indeed seems unfavorable for Huawei.

Next, let’s examine whether Apple’s iPhone Duo can truly achieve such success and surpass Huawei’s foldable phone sales in just over two months. Personally, I find it hard to believe.