In 2026, times are indeed tough for the vast majority of phone manufacturers—but that doesn't include Apple, Samsung, and Huawei.

Judging from the first three quarters, sales for Apple, Samsung, and Huawei have barely been affected, while most other phone manufacturers have seen declines. Whether it's Xiaomi, OPPO, VIVO, or Honor, all have experienced relatively large drops, with a 20% decline being almost the norm.

Under these circumstances, major phone manufacturers are continuously raising prices and pushing toward the high-end segment, especially making inroads into foldable phones. After all, foldables are expensive—a large foldable costs over 10,000 yuan apiece, equivalent to several ordinary bar phones.

So Apple also released a foldable phone this year: the iPhone Duo.

One has to admit, Apple's timing is indeed excellent. With phone prices rising across the board, everyone pushing into foldables, and the supply chain having matured, Apple essentially picked up something ready-made.

And as soon as Apple released the iPhone Duo, everyone believed that with just this one phone, Apple could rank among the global top three—or even stand on equal footing with Huawei.

As shown in the figure above, this is the foldable phone market share situation reported by TrendForce.

Before 2025, it was almost entirely Samsung's and Huawei's world, with the two accounting for over 75% of the share—other brands simply couldn't compete.

But by 2026, Apple, with just this one iPhone Duo, could capture 24.8% of the share—exactly matching Huawei's 24.8%. Keep in mind that Huawei's foldable phones have been selling for a full year, while Apple's iPhone Duo only launched in October, meaning it hasn't even sold for 3 full months—only a little over 2 months.

And by 2027, Apple will surpass Huawei, capturing 29.8% of the share, while Huawei drops to 21.3% and Samsung also falls to 31.9%—transforming from the original two-horse race into a three-way rivalry.

Of course, Apple is strong because it can sell globally, while Huawei is affected because its phones are mainly sold domestically—and domestic users also favor Apple. So once domestic users buy Apple, it's equivalent to taking Huawei's share—hence Huawei declining and Apple rising.

Next, let's see whether this forecast is accurate—whether it underestimated Huawei or overestimated Apple.