At midnight on October 29, China's 14th domestic refined fuel price increase of the year took effect, with the retail ceiling for No. 92 gasoline climbing back to 8.6–8.7 yuan per liter—filling a tank now costs about 100 yuan more than at the start of the year. The government once again trimmed roughly 95 yuan from the increase to cushion the impact of international oil prices, but the direction is unmistakable: the center of gravity for oil prices is shifting upward, and the structure of the auto market is being redrawn along this price line.

Oil prices over the past decade: a low in 2020–2021, a high in 2022–2023

Over the past decade, the annual average price of No. 92 gasoline bottomed out in 2020–2021 at roughly 5.25–5.44 yuan per liter, driven mainly by the pandemic's blow to demand combined with a price war;

The peak came in 2022–2023, at about 8.86–9.25 yuan per liter, as the Russia-Ukraine conflict pushed up international oil prices and China entered the "9-yuan era."

By October 2026, prices had returned to 8.6–8.7 yuan per liter, essentially back near the previous high, though the driver this time has shifted to supply disruptions caused by geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East.

Where oil prices go from here: 2026 is already in high territory, with limited room for further sharp increases

The World Bank's outlook, released on October 28, forecasts that Brent crude will average about $91 a barrel in 2026—well above $69 in 2025—before falling back to $79 in 2027 and further to $70 in 2028, on the grounds that the market will re-enter oversupply.

In other words, today's high oil prices look more like a phased peak under geopolitical shocks than the starting point of a long-term trend.

UBS has also raised its short-term forecasts, but its medium- and long-term outlook likewise points to a decline once supply and demand rebalance. For car-buying decisions, this means there is no need to assume "oil prices will rise forever," but neither should one expect a return to the 5-yuan era.

January–September this year: gasoline vehicles are shrinking, new energy is "falling less"

Data from the China Passenger Car Association show that in January–September, cumulative retail sales of passenger cars reached 13.334 million units, down 21.7% year on year. Of these, new energy retail sales were 7.758 million units, down 12.8% year on year, while gasoline vehicle retail sales came to about 5.576 million units—a year-on-year decline of roughly 29%–30%.

The divergence in September alone was even more striking: gasoline vehicle retail sales fell 43% year on year, pure gasoline vehicles fell 49%, while conventional hybrids bucked the trend with 25% growth.

New energy retail penetration climbed to 67.0% in September, and the gasoline vehicle share fell below one-third for the first time. The squeeze on gasoline vehicles from high oil prices is no longer a marginal effect but an accelerating substitution. There is no disputing the direction of continued penetration gains, but the growth rate is slowing, and the next stage of incremental growth will come more from lower-tier markets and replacement demand than from a first-purchase boom in first-tier cities.

A 100,000-yuan gasoline car vs. an EV: the EV's "savings" are real, but not unconditional

Take a 100,000-yuan-class family car, 15,000 km a year, over a five-year cycle: a gasoline car's five-year fuel cost comes to about 49,000 yuan, maintenance about 4,500 yuan, and insurance about 14,500 yuan; for a pure EV charged at home, five-year electricity costs can be as low as 3,375 yuan, maintenance about 1,800 yuan, and insurance about 19,500 yuan.

For high-frequency users, the five-year total cost is about 68,000 yuan for a gasoline car and about 25,600 yuan for a pure EV with home charging—a gap of more than 40,000 yuan. Even relying entirely on public charging piles, the pure EV's total cost comes to around 33,500 yuan, still half that of a gasoline car.

EV insurance is indeed pricier, but once annual mileage exceeds 15,000 km, the gap on the fuel/electricity side is enough to overwhelm the insurance disadvantage.

As for resale value, the old impression that "EVs don't hold their value" is being rewritten: some popular new energy models already achieve a one-year resale value above 80%, while ordinary gasoline cars' three-year resale value has fallen to around 50%. Gasoline cars, too, are being dragged into the depreciation channel by the pace of EV iteration.

Buying a car at year-end: first ask about charging piles, then ask how many kilometers you drive a year

The core of the decision is not a positional debate over "gasoline or electric," but a match with your usage scenarios.

With a fixed parking space and a home charging pile, annual mileage over 15,000 km, and mainly urban commuting, a pure EV is currently the clearest choice on the economic ledger;

Without home charging but with fairly high annual mileage and the occasional long trip, a plug-in hybrid or new-generation hybrid (HEV) is more pragmatic than a pure gasoline car. HEVs are clearly better than traditional gasoline cars in fuel consumption and driving experience, while avoiding both charging anxiety and the battery premium of plug-in hybrids;

Without home charging and with annual mileage below 10,000 km, the "peace-of-mind dividend" of a pure gasoline car or HEV still holds, and the EV's savings will be largely offset by insurance and time costs.

At the end of 2026, with high oil prices now the norm, the rationality of a pure gasoline car as a new-car purchase option is rapidly narrowing—but for a considerable number of families without charging conditions, "replacing gasoline with hybrid" is a better fit than "going all the way to electric."