Multiple Events Converge: Automakers Drive Supply Chain Rebalancing, Reshaping Bargaining Power in the Industrial Chain

On September 21, 2026, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co. Limited (CATL, 300750.SZ; 03750.HK) unveiled a series of significant market moves.

The company executed share buybacks, adjusted prices for energy storage cells, and senior executives publicly addressed the hotly debated topic of 'de-CATL-ization' in the industry.

Amid this convergence of news, CATL's stock price fell below the 300 yuan mark. The current industry competition is no longer a simple technological rivalry. At its core, new energy vehicle (NEV) stakeholders at all levels are undergoing a new round of rebalancing in bargaining power.

Intensive action landing (Intensive Moves Unfold)

On September 21, CATL announced a share buyback, repurchasing 3.6875 million A-shares on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange at transaction prices ranging from 296.26 yuan to 301 yuan, for a total investment of approximately 1.1 billion yuan.

The repurchased shares are designated for cancellation. As of the announcement, the cancellation procedures had not yet been completed. Throughout September 2026, CATL conducted multiple rounds of share buybacks on the 11th, 16th, and 18th, all earmarked for cancellation.

On the same day, CATL's energy storage business underwent price adjustments. The company's online store updated its cell pricing, introducing a new 587Ah ultra-large-capacity energy storage cell for public listing. Prices for existing mainstream cells saw slight increases, with the minimum quote for 280Ah energy storage cells rising by 1.1% and 314Ah cells by 2%.

In response to the price adjustments, CATL stated that these were routine market adjustments subject to dynamic optimization based on industry trends.

During a recent corporate quality open house event, CATL's Chief Manufacturing Officer Ni Jun addressed the controversy over automakers' 'de-CATL-ization,' emphasizing that vehicle manufacturing and battery production require distinct professional expertise, necessitating specialized teams for each domain.

The current wave of public debate stems from recent adjustments in automakers' supply chain strategies. Li Auto acquired a stake in Sunwoda Electric Vehicle Battery, becoming its second-largest shareholder. Xiaomi's new Pengcheng series models adopted a joint battery solution from CALB and Sunwoda.

The trend of automakers cultivating diverse battery suppliers continues to fuel market sentiment. Affected by multiple factors, CATL's stock closed at 297.1 yuan on September 21, slipping below the 300 yuan threshold.

The secondary market generally views share buybacks as a conventional measure to signal corporate confidence in its valuation and stabilize market sentiment. However, this round of buybacks failed to fully reverse market sentiment.

The capital market's primary concern lies not in short-term corporate performance but in shifts in the industry's underlying logic. Automakers' efforts to establish multi-supplier systems are reshaping the competitive landscape, supply structures, and profit distribution in the power battery industry over the long term.

Restructuring of industrial chain weights (Restructuring Industrial Chain Bargaining Power)

The market widely regards 'de-CATL-ization' as a new hot topic in the passenger vehicle sector for 2026. In reality, this supply chain adjustment has already played out earlier in the new energy commercial vehicle segment.

Commercial vehicles serve as production tools, with end-users prioritizing payback periods and operational costs per kilometer, making them far more price-sensitive than passenger vehicles. Power batteries account for 30%-50% of a vehicle's total cost, representing its most expensive core component.

In recent years, declining freight rates in urban distribution and continuous price reductions for complete vehicles have squeezed OEMs' profit margins. Even slight fluctuations in battery costs directly determine the profitability of individual vehicle models.

Against this backdrop, incorporating second-tier battery manufacturers such as Gotion High-Tech and EVE Energy has become a pragmatic choice for automakers to reduce costs and mitigate risks.

This pressure is directly reflected in market share changes. Data from the China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance shows that CATL's domestic commercial vehicle battery installation share stood at 49.17% in 2025, down 11.9 percentage points year-on-year.

Focusing on the new energy commercial vehicle sub-market, industry statistics clearly illustrate the shift. CATL's market share in this segment dropped from 61% in 2024 to 54.5% in 2025, a decline of 6.5 percentage points in one year.

The industry's conflicts manifest as price disagreements on the surface but stem from a misalignment in the positions of parties A and B within the industrial chain. Under conventional industrial divisions, automakers define product standards for complete vehicles, while component suppliers adapt their development and supply schedules accordingly.

Following the rapid expansion of the power battery industry, this division of labor has quietly reversed. Battery companies now introduce standardized cells and battery packs, requiring automakers to adjust their chassis designs to accommodate battery specifications.

During periods of tight capacity, battery companies dictate supply priorities and delivery schedules, leaving automakers in a passive position. When policy-driven cost increases occur, upstream tax burdens can be directly passed down to downstream players.

According to Announcement No. 20 jointly issued by the Ministry of Finance, General Administration of Customs, and State Taxation Administration in 2026, a 2% consumption tax on lithium battery products took effect on September 1, rising to 4% in September 2027. Following the policy's implementation, battery companies swiftly shifted these additional costs to vehicle manufacturers.

With intense competition in the complete vehicle market preventing simultaneous price hikes, automakers have had to absorb these additional costs, intensifying profitability pressures.

Cui Dongshu, Secretary-General of the China Passenger Car Association, has publicly stated that automakers must develop independent battery production capabilities or collaborate with relevant enterprises to do so; otherwise, they cannot become world-class vehicle companies.

Automakers' pursuit of supply chain diversification does not mean abandoning CATL entirely. The core objective is to reduce single-source dependency, balance procurement costs, stabilize supply systems, and regain product definition and market bargaining power.

Industry ushers in a new balance (The Industry Embraces a New Equilibrium)

From an operational standpoint, CATL maintains strong profitability resilience.

In the first half of 2026, the company reported net profit attributable to shareholders of 43.284 billion yuan, up 41.98% year-on-year. According to a Morgan Stanley research report, CATL's capacity utilization rate reached 95% during this period, far exceeding the industry average of 65%.

In contrast, downstream complete vehicle companies generally experienced revenue growth without corresponding profit increases.

This is particularly evident in the commercial vehicle segment, where mainstream high-volume models generate extremely low profits per vehicle. Most automakers' annual profit levels lag far behind those of upstream battery leaders. This profit imbalance between upstream and downstream players represents the core underlying logic driving the current supply chain transformation.

Automakers' establishment of dual-source or multi-source supply systems primarily addresses supply chain security concerns. NEV manufacturers face highly seasonal order patterns, with capacity concentrated during peak seasons. Relying on a single supplier risks delivery delays, leading to production line shutdowns and order losses. A multi-supplier system effectively smooths out delivery fluctuations and stabilizes complete vehicle production rhythms.

Simultaneously, competition among multiple suppliers compels battery companies to continuously optimize costs and improve responsiveness. Vehicle manufacturers can maintain dynamic balance among suppliers, avoiding long-term dependency on a single source that weakens their bargaining power.

CATL's manufacturing capabilities and quality control remain industry-leading. The company controls cell failure rates at the one-in-a-billion level, with unmatched scalability and consistency that smaller manufacturers cannot replicate in the short term. In August 2026, CATL's domestic power battery installation volume reached 32.54 GWh, with a market share of 41.45%, maintaining its industry-leading position.

The industry's variables lie not in technological gaps but in shifts in ecological positioning. Historically, battery companies operated as behind-the-scenes suppliers, quietly supporting automakers without competing for terminal brand visibility.

Today, leading battery companies have begun C-end brand operations, creating product identities, launching mass-market advertising, and capturing user mindshare. This strategy enhances battery companies' pricing power but also dilutes complete vehicle brands' terminal influence.

In contrast, traditional top-tier component suppliers like Bosch have maintained a restrained industrial posture, adhering to a service provider Positioning (positioning) and avoiding competition with OEMs for terminal exposure. This approach has been key to sustaining stable upstream-downstream cooperation over the long term.

CATL now stands at a crossroads of industrial transformation. Brand ascension inevitably encroaches on automakers' core interests, while continued focus on supporting services maintains industrial ecosystem stability.

The industry's long-term growth logic remains intact. In August 2026, NEV passenger vehicle penetration reached 65.2%, setting a new historical high. Global energy storage battery shipments hit 461.3 GWh in the first half of the year, with CATL leading the market at 125 GWh and a 27.1% share. The industry faces no systemic downside risks.

What has changed are the industry's distribution rules. From January to August 2026, CALB maintained its third-place industry ranking with a 6.4% market share, followed closely by Gotion High-Tech at 6.2%. Competition for second-tier manufacturer positions has intensified. The era of absolute dominance by a single leader is drawing to a close, with supply chain balancing and diversification becoming long-term trends. Second-tier battery manufacturers and automakers' in-house battery development efforts now have stable growth opportunities.

Share buybacks can temporarily stabilize market sentiment, and the energy storage business offers sustained growth opportunities. However, supply chain rebalancing represents an irreversible industrial trend.

Future industry competition will no longer hinge solely on production capacity and yield rates but will increasingly test companies' ecological positioning and collaborative wisdom. Redefining upstream-downstream boundaries and adapting to new industry rules constitute essential long-term lessons for CATL and the entire industry.