In July, The Dark Side of the Moon sent a listing proposal to investors, expecting to complete its IPO on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange within the next six months at the earliest.

The news is not surprising, but the timing is worth noting.

In June this year, The Dark Side of the Moon's ARR reached $300 million, tripling in three months. During the same period, the Kimi K3 model was released, surpassing competitors other than Claude Fable 5 and GPT-5.6 in overall capabilities, with pricing comparable to Anthropic Sonnet.

With these three signals appearing simultaneously, The Dark Side of the Moon judged: the timing is right.

I. The Code Behind 'The Timing is Right': Not 300 Million, But Tripling in Three Months

What does an ARR of $300 million mean in the AI industry?

The absolute figure is not staggering. Salesforce generates over $8 billion in revenue in a single quarter, making $300 million just a mid-sized company in the SaaS industry. However, the large model industry is not the SaaS industry, and the valuation logic is entirely different.

What matters for large model companies is growth speed, not absolute revenue. The key figure for The Dark Side of the Moon is not '300 million' but 'tripling in three months'—from $100 million to $300 million, an annualized growth rate exceeding 1000%.

What does this growth rate indicate? The product has found its market fit.

Kimi's user base is growing, its paid conversion rate is increasing, and its enterprise clients are expanding. Tripling in three months is not the result of burning money but of users paying real money. This is a signal of 'product-driven growth,' not 'marketing-driven growth.'

By choosing to IPO now, The Dark Side of the Moon is not selling its current $300 million but the expectation of 'possibly $3 billion next year.' The capital market buys expectations, not the current status.

II. The True Value of the K3 Model: Not Technology, But Pricing Power

The K3 model's release surpasses competitors other than Claude Fable 5 and GPT-5.6 in overall capabilities.

The phrasing of 'surpassing' is subtle—it does not mean 'surpassing all' but 'surpassing all except two.' The Dark Side of the Moon did not claim to be stronger than OpenAI and Anthropic but said it is stronger than the rest.

More subtle is the pricing: Kimi K3 is priced comparably to Anthropic Sonnet.

Pricing is a declaration of industry status. Pricing at the same level as Sonnet means The Dark Side of the Moon places itself in the same tier as Anthropic, not in the 'cost-effective tier' of domestic models.

There are two pricing strategies for domestic large model companies:

Cost-effective route: Priced 50%-80% cheaper than OpenAI, relying on price to capture the market.

Same-price route: Priced at the same level as the first tier, relying on capabilities to speak.

The Dark Side of the Moon chose the second route. This is not just technological confidence but commercial confidence—daring to price K3 the same as Sonnet indicates that users are willing to pay for it.

III. Why the Hong Kong Stock Exchange: A New Battleground for AI Company Valuations

The Dark Side of the Moon chose the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, not the U.S. stock market.

This choice has practical considerations:

First, the Hong Kong Stock Exchange has a more favorable valuation logic for AI companies. U.S. investors compare AI companies to OpenAI and Anthropic, setting extremely high standards. Hong Kong investors compare AI companies to the growth trajectory of domestic internet companies, showing higher tolerance for 'losses in exchange for growth.'

Second, the listing timeline is shorter on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. The U.S. IPO process is complex, with strict regulatory reviews and unpredictable timelines. The Hong Kong Stock Exchange's 'Chapter 18C' provides a fast track for tech companies, making six months a feasible timeline.

Third, geopolitical risks. The uncertainty of Chinese stocks in the U.S. has increased, making the Hong Kong Stock Exchange a safer capital outlet.

However, the Hong Kong Stock Exchange also poses challenges: lower liquidity than the U.S. market and potentially lower valuation ceilings. The Dark Side of the Moon is betting on 'listing first to secure a position, then gradually releasing performance,' using growth stories to exchange for valuation space.

IV. The Domestic Large Model IPO Race: Who is Leading?

The Dark Side of the Moon is not the only large model company aiming to go public.

Zhipu AI: Valued at over 20 billion RMB, rumored to be preparing for a listing on the STAR Market. However, the STAR Market has profitability requirements, which large model companies are unlikely to meet in the short term.

MiniMax: Valued at over $2.5 billion, with products primarily targeting consumers, following a similar commercialization path to The Dark Side of the Moon, but its ARR scale has not been disclosed.

01.AI: Founded by Kai-Fu Lee, valued at over $1 billion, recently rumored to be adjusting its business direction, with an unclear IPO timeline.

The Dark Side of the Moon's advantage lies in 'speed': the first to reach $300 million in ARR, the first to clarify its Hong Kong Stock Exchange IPO timeline, and the first to release a model comparable to the first tier.

However, 'being the first to list' does not equal 'being the most successful.' The ultimate outcome of the large model industry is not about 'who lists first' but 'who can continue to burn money on R&D while maintaining revenue growth post-listing.'

V. The Signal to the Industry: From 'Financing-Driven' to 'Listing-Driven'

The Dark Side of the Moon's IPO is a landmark signal for the large model industry.

From 2023 to 2024, the industry's main focus has been 'financing': whoever raises more money can buy computing power, hire talent, and train models.

From 2025 to 2026, the industry's main focus will be 'revenue': whoever can sell their products will survive.

Starting in the second half of 2026, the industry's main focus may shift to 'listing': the raised funds are nearly exhausted, requiring capital markets to sustain operations.

However, listing is not the endpoint but a new starting point. Post-listing, The Dark Side of the Moon will face:

Quarterly financial report pressure: Revenue must continue to grow; otherwise, the stock price will suffer.

R&D spending pressure: Large model iterations require continuous investment, which cannot stop post-listing.

Increased competition pressure: OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google will not slow down, while domestic players like Zhipu and MiniMax are also catching up.

The Dark Side of the Moon's IPO is the first 'coming-of-age' ceremony for domestic large model companies. Whether it can smoothly transition from 'financing-driven' to 'listing-driven' remains to be seen in three years.

Epilogue

The Dark Side of the Moon is going public, with an ARR of 300 million as the entry ticket, tripling in three months as the story, and the K3 model as the bargaining chip.

However, listing is not the endpoint but the start of a new gamble. The capital market's patience is shorter than that of venture capital, and the pressure from quarterly financial reports is greater than that from financing rounds.

The Dark Side of the Moon is selling the expectation of '$3 billion next year,' but whether this expectation can be fulfilled depends on whether there will be K4 and K5 after K3, whether users are willing to continue paying, and whether competitors will give it breathing room.

The first half of the large model industry was about 'who has the stronger model,' while the second half will be about 'who has stable revenue.' The Dark Side of the Moon is the first Chinese player to reach the second half, but the finish line is still far away.

Disclaimer: This article is solely a commentary by Zhicaijing and does not constitute any investment advice. The enterprise data and regulatory events mentioned herein are derived from public information and are for reference only, with the official releases prevailing. Images sourced from the internet; if there are any copyright issues, please contact us for removal.

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