Author: Lu Shiming

Editor: Dafeng

On July 6, the 2024 World AI Conference and High-Level Conference on Global AI Governance concluded in Shanghai.

Looking back on this year's conference, the most significant difference from previous years is undoubtedly the surge in the number of humanoid robots on display. It is understood that the humanoid robot zone was one of the key areas highlighted at this year's World AI Conference, with a total of 25 humanoid robots, setting a record for the highest number ever.

In addition to the highly anticipated Tesla Optimus second-generation robot, domestic manufacturers also competed to showcase their latest robots. Due to their high technological content, the robot exhibition area was packed with visitors, procurement teams, investors, and suppliers.

With breakthroughs in AI, perception technology, autonomous navigation, and other technologies, robot capabilities have continued to improve in recent years, and the market has become extremely hot, with almost all major domestic and foreign technology companies entering the field.

However, compared to industrial robots and service robots, while humanoid robots will have a much larger market space in the future, at present, the immaturity of related technologies, high costs, and a lack of commercialization scenarios are hindering the development of the humanoid robot industry.

The future will inevitably arrive, but before realizing the cyber world, players' resilience and financial resources will be severely tested.

Over 40 Smart Robots on Display Simultaneously

The robot exhibition area at this year's AI Conference seemed to transport people to the "future" for a moment. As the star of the entire exhibition, Tesla's Optimus second-generation robot, although only displayed its design through a glass case, did not diminish the enthusiasm of the audience who gathered around.

According to reports, compared to the earlier prototype, the Optimus second-generation robot has made significant progress in weight, flexibility, and other aspects. Of course, achieving these capabilities is inseparable from Tesla's multi-faceted improvements.

Compared to the previous generation, improvements to the Optimus second-generation robot include: adopting actuators and sensors designed and manufactured entirely by Tesla; a more refined overall design; a 30% increase in walking speed; a 10 kg weight reduction, along with improved balance and body control capabilities; and equipped with brand-new hands...

Image: Optimus second-generation capabilities demonstration

Currently, the Optimus second-generation robot can perform actions such as walking, climbing stairs, squatting, and picking up objects, and it already has the ability to protect itself and those around it.

In addition to Tesla's Optimus second-generation robot, domestic manufacturers' robot products were equally surprising. For example, the open-source public version robot "Qinglong," developed by the National and Local Collaborative Humanoid Robot Innovation Center, which led the way, also made its debut at this conference.

During the demonstration, "Qinglong" was able to gently pick up a soft bread loaf with its five steel fingers and place it aside without leaving a single scratch on the bread. Surprisingly, "Qinglong" was developed by the National and Local Collaborative Center in just six months.

Image: Humanoid Robot "Qinglong"

It is well-known that humanoid robots are highly integrated products. Why could the National and Local Collaborative Center complete "Qinglong" so quickly? In fact, this is closely related to the robot industry foundation in the Yangtze River Delta region. Many components of the Qinglong humanoid robot are manufactured in the Yangtze River Delta, and its installed "brain," the Zhuque, is supported by iFLYTEK's Spark large model and Shusheng Puyu large model.

In addition to "Qinglong," the "Guanghua No.1" humanoid robot, developed by the Intelligent Robotics Institute of the Institute of Engineering and Applied Technology at Fudan University, also made its appearance at the conference. It is the only humanoid robot manufactured by a university among the "Eighteen Devarajas" of humanoid robots unveiled this year.

In terms of appearance, "Guanghua No.1" resembles humans, with 45 mixed-transmission ratio intelligent joints and a hierarchical generative embodied brain model throughout its body. Driven by the principle of minimum free energy, it can freely swing its arms and walk upright.

Furthermore, the facial display of "Guanghua No.1" can display four expressions: happiness, anger, sadness, and joy, providing a more intuitive emotional experience during interactions.

Moreover, the entire exhibition area featured humanoid robots from companies and institutions such as CloudMinds, Fudan University, Fourier Intelligence, Unitree Robotics, Kepler, Qingbao Robotics, LEJU Robotics, Songyan Power, and Tigerbot.

It can be said that domestic robots shone brightly at this AI Conference, not only showcasing China's latest achievements in the field of AI but also indicating the infinite possibilities for the future development of the domestic humanoid robot industry.

Robot Market Size Continues to Climb

In recent years, with the continuous surge in market demand and policy support, China's robot industry has shown strong development momentum, with the industry's scale growing rapidly.

On the market side, factors such as the intensifying aging population and rising labor costs have driven the application penetration of China's robot industry in various fields.

Faced with huge market potential, domestic enterprises are actively laying out the humanoid robot industry chain. Currently, there are over 50 companies related to humanoid robots on the A-share market, with a total market value of concept stocks exceeding 699 billion yuan. Many companies are accelerating their technological research and development and mass production processes.

For example, Huichuan Technology has occupied a considerable market share in general servo systems and industrial robot products. Companies such as Siling, Qinchuan Machine Tool, and Fengguang Precision have also made significant progress in the development and production of key components such as harmonic reducers and actuator modules.

Additionally, internet giants often have a keen market insight, and they are quickly following up on the rising popularity of the robot industry.

Take Xiaomi as an example. At the new product launch event on August 10, 2022, it showcased its self-developed first-generation bionic robot "CyberOne," also known as "Tie Da." The unveiling of this product once sparked a heated public debate about "robots" in China.

Image: Xiaomi CyberOne

It is reported that Xiaomi's robot products' intelligence and mechanical capabilities were all developed in-house by Xiaomi's Robotics Lab, which means countless software, hardware, and algorithm development efforts were involved, and the investment was enormous.

However, there are also conservative giants that choose to invest and fund startups. For example, Alibaba invested in humanoid robot startup Zhuji Power, holding an 18.8% stake, and Douyin has invested in multiple robot companies, including Yunjin Intelligence, Yinghe Robotics, Jiashi Technology, Juxing, and Future Robotics...

As enterprises rush ahead, national industrial policies are also providing strong support.

As early as December 28, 2021, 15 departments including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the National Development and Reform Commission released the "14th Five-Year Plan for the Development of the Robot Industry," which stated that by 2025, China aims to become a global hub for robot technology innovation, high-end manufacturing, and integrated application.

Then, in January 2023, 17 departments including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology released the "Implementation Plan for the 'Robot+' Application Action," proposing that by 2025, the density of robots in the manufacturing industry will double compared to 2020, and the depth and breadth of application in the service robot and special robot industries will significantly increase.

The dual factors of market momentum and policy support have pressed the "accelerator" button for the development of China's robot industry. According to the "Humanoid Robot Industry Research Report" released at this conference, it is predicted that by 2024, the market size of humanoid robots in China will reach approximately 2.76 billion yuan, and by 2029, this market size is expected to expand to 75 billion yuan, accounting for 32.7% of the global market.

Furthermore, the report further forecasts that by 2035, the market size of humanoid robots in China is expected to reach 300 billion yuan.

However, in reality, the robot industry still faces a common challenge, namely commercialization. Especially for humanoid robots, commercialization seems distant due to the double barriers of technical difficulties and high costs.

Commercialization: Industrial Far Ahead of Humanoid

It is undeniable that humanoid robots are expected to become disruptive products following computers, smartphones, and new energy vehicles. However, global players have yet to achieve large-scale mass production and commercialization, with most of them still in laboratory research and testing.

Some argue that the short-term constraint for humanoid robots to achieve mass production and commercialization is technology, the mid-term factor is cost, and the long-term factor is the establishment of application scenarios and ecosystems.

Indeed, humanoid robots need to complete various complex tasks, and the elevated functional requirements lead to "heavy" hardware costs at the process level. Secondly, the high cost of humanoid robots also stems from their technical complexity, which results in higher research and development costs. Coupled with longer research and development cycles, it further increases the overall technical cost.

Therefore, some say that humanoid robots are the most expensive industry in the AI field, and it may be difficult for the capital market to produce products and technologies even with an investment of 10 billion yuan in the short term.

As for application scenarios, taking Boston Dynamics, the "best" player in the humanoid robot race, as an example, its bipedal robot Atlas has applications in remote equipment testing, construction sites, remote reconnaissance, healthcare, public safety, and other fields. Not only is its technology highly valuable, but it also demonstrates outstanding capabilities. However, precisely because of this, the product's uses are too broad and its positioning is not clear enough, causing customer concerns.

Image: Boston Dynamics Robot Products

From being acquired by Google's parent company Alphabet in 2013 to being hosted by SoftBank in Japan in 2017 and then transferred to Hyundai in South Korea in 2020, product positioning issues undoubtedly constitute one of the core reasons for Boston Dynamics' commercial development dilemma.

In fact, like Boston Dynamics, including Tesla and most domestic companies involved in humanoid robots, there are issues with unclear product positioning. At a time when the development of humanoid robots is far from mature, being able to be used in any scenario does not seem to be a good thing at the commercialization level.

Unlike the market development of humanoid robots, industrial robots, which can quickly achieve cost reduction and efficiency improvement, have already been widely used in industries such as automobiles, electronics, machinery, and aerospace.

In the industrial robot application market, the automotive industry is undoubtedly at the forefront. Currently, industrial robots for arc welding, spot welding, assembly, handling, injection molding, stamping, painting, and other tasks have almost become "standard equipment" for automakers. With the demand for automobile exports and new energy vehicle manufacturers, the demand for industrial robots used in automobile manufacturing will also see rapid growth.

Image: Robot welding operation in BYD's production workshop

Currently, China's installed industrial robot capacity accounts for more than 50% of the global total, and the Industrial Internet has achieved full coverage of major industries, cultivating 421 national-level smart manufacturing demonstration factories.

In addition, as people pay more attention to the quality of life, their spiritual and psychological demands continue to increase, and enterprises' service awareness continues to improve, which has also contributed to the rapid growth of China's service robot market. For example, many restaurants and hotels have introduced food delivery robots to assist in food delivery, further enhancing service levels and alleviating the tedious and repetitive work of service staff.

Compared to industrial and service robots, although the humanoid robot industry has a broader prospect, there is still a long way to go before achieving qualitative breakthroughs. It is hoped that with the efforts of market players and policy promotion, the humanoid robot market process can be further accelerated, continuously bearing fruitful results.