10/16 2024 498
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On October 14, 2024, NVIDIA shares hit an all-time high. With investors' strong optimism about the demand for AI processors, NVIDIA is closing in on becoming the world's most valuable company, potentially even surpassing Apple. On that day, NVIDIA shares rose 2.43% to close at $138.07, with a market value of $3.39 trillion, slightly lower than Apple's $3.52 trillion but exceeding Microsoft's $3.12 trillion. As the biggest beneficiary of the AI technology revolution, NVIDIA has continued to gain market favor in the past few months.
Since the explosion of generative AI technology, NVIDIA has become a key player in AI infrastructure construction. Its Graphics Processing Units (GPUs) are widely used to train and infer AI models, especially generative AI applications like ChatGPT, which have extremely strong demand for NVIDIA's GPUs. The intensifying competition in AI training and inference has led to rapid growth in NVIDIA's market share and valuation. According to market analysis, NVIDIA occupies approximately 95% of the AI chip market, a monopoly position that makes it the "crown jewel" in the eyes of global tech giants.
Since the outbreak of generative AI technology, NVIDIA has emerged as a crucial player in AI infrastructure. Its Graphics Processing Units (GPUs) are widely utilized for training and inference of AI models, particularly in high-demand applications like ChatGPT, where NVIDIA's GPUs are in high demand. The intensifying competition in AI training and inference has fueled rapid growth in NVIDIA's market share and valuation. Market analysis indicates that NVIDIA commands approximately 95% of the AI chip market, a dominant position that has made it a coveted asset for global tech giants.
Giants such as Microsoft, Google, Meta, and Amazon have invested heavily in AI infrastructure to drive the development of next-generation intelligent applications. NVIDIA's GPUs provide the core equipment supporting these technological advancements. Market data suggests that NVIDIA's revenue is expected to double this year and continue its robust growth in upcoming quarters.
Despite the delay in mass production of NVIDIA's new Blackwell chip until the fourth quarter, the market remains confident in its prospects. NVIDIA CEO Jen-Hsun Huang stated that demand for the Blackwell chip is "exceptionally strong," and existing products are in short supply. Morgan Stanley analysts point out that Blackwell orders have already been booked for up to 12 months, indicating that NVIDIA's production lines will remain fully utilized for an extended period.
TD Cowen analysts consider NVIDIA the top investment choice in the AI sector. Despite the "prisoner's dilemma" investment environment, where companies must continue to invest heavily in AI to avoid falling behind in the competition, TD Cowen has set a target price of $165 for NVIDIA, convinced that strong demand in the AI chip market will persist for years to come.
NVIDIA's rise has not only boosted its own market valuation but also driven the entire U.S. stock market. NVIDIA, Apple, and Microsoft collectively account for approximately one-fifth of the S&P 500 index, significantly impacting market performance. Recently, NVIDIA's share price has risen by 14%, making it the second-best-performing stock in the S&P 500 this year. Investors' optimism about AI technology has fueled demand for NVIDIA, even sparking a surge in options trading, with call option volume surging last Thursday, reflecting market expectations for further share price gains.
As AI technology continues to evolve, NVIDIA is not only a leader in AI hardware but also a driving force in the entire industry. With OpenAI introducing AI models with reasoning capabilities and companies like Google competing in similar technologies, the investment prospects for the AI industry chain are exceptionally promising.
NVIDIA's GPU product line, particularly its high-end chips for inference and AI model development, is becoming the foundation for the next technological revolution. John Belton, a portfolio manager at Gabelli Funds, states that AI will continue to generate stable demand in the coming years, with NVIDIA poised to become a critical pillar of this market.
Despite growing optimism about the future of AI technology, some analysts warn that if technology spending slows down, NVIDIA's strong growth momentum may face challenges. Analysts expect NVIDIA's revenue to more than double to approximately $126 billion in fiscal year 2024, with a projected growth rate of 44% in fiscal year 2025.
NVIDIA's robust growth momentum extends beyond just its share price performance; it represents the thriving AI industry as a whole. As global tech giants continue to invest in AI infrastructure, NVIDIA's market leadership position is further solidified. The prospects for technological revolution, particularly in generative AI and automation, are compelling, and NVIDIA's products will provide strong support for advancing these technologies in the coming years.
With the launch of the Blackwell chip and the continued adoption of AI technology, NVIDIA is poised to further expand its market share in upcoming quarters. The market widely believes that NVIDIA's profitability and return on investment will remain high, positioning it to maintain its status as the world's most valuable company.
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