AI 尽头是核电!

10/25 2024 356

Amazon has also announced its investment in nuclear power, supporting the development of small modular nuclear reactors (SMRs) in the United States, following companies such as Oracle, Microsoft, and Google. To meet the growing demands of data centers and artificial intelligence, these tech giants are seeking out new sources of carbon-free electricity.

Nuclear power has become the new darling of industry giants.

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Selected nuclear power

Since last year, artificial intelligence has gained global popularity with the rise of large models like ChatGPT. The era of AI is fueled by robust computing power demands, which are grounded in massive energy consumption. The expansion of AI computing power necessitates substantial electricity usage and generates significant carbon emissions, posing a critical challenge. According to foreign research reports, ChatGPT responds to approximately 200 million requests daily, consuming over 500,000 kWh of electricity, equivalent to the energy usage of 17,000 American households. Furthermore, the International Energy Agency has reported that if AI is fully integrated, for instance, in Google search, its electricity consumption could increase tenfold. Goldman Sachs predicts that US electricity demand will grow by approximately 2.4% from 2022 to 2030, with 0.9% attributed to data centers. Tech giants like Microsoft, Google, and Amazon, pioneers in AI development, rely on extensive data center clusters supported by their cloud computing divisions, which also signifies substantial energy consumption.

On September 20, Microsoft announced a 20-year agreement to purchase energy from a decommissioned nuclear power plant, which will be reactivated. This is no ordinary nuclear plant: The Three Mile Island Nuclear Generating Station, located in Londonderry Township, Pennsylvania, was the site of the worst nuclear accident in US history in 1979, when one of its reactors partially melted down.

This move symbolizes the need for tech giants to power their growing AI capabilities while also raising questions about safely restarting shuttered nuclear plants—especially as Three Mile Island is not the only one being revived.

The Palisades Nuclear Power Plant in Covert, Michigan, a 805-megawatt facility, shut down in May 2022. However, Holtec International, the plant's owner, plans to reopen it. The US Department of Energy (DoE) pledged a conditional $1.5 billion loan, reversing the plant's fate and positioning it as a means to help the country achieve its climate goals. The Palisades Nuclear Power Plant is expected to reopen by the end of 2025.

Amazon is currently collaborating with three companies, and while AI is not explicitly mentioned in these partnerships, it is clear that these nuclear power resources will likely support Amazon's various AI services going forward. Amazon has stated its plan to meet its growing electricity needs by investing in small nuclear reactors, such as purchasing nuclear energy from Kairos Power. It is partnering with utility company Dominion Energy to explore installing a small modular reactor near the existing North Anna Nuclear Power Station in Virginia. The e-commerce giant is also investing in early-stage development with reactor developer X-energy and collaborating with Energy Northwest, a utility company in central Washington, to install four X-energy reactors there.

Google has also announced its intention to sign a contract to purchase nuclear energy from multiple small modular reactors planned by nuclear technology company Kairos Power. Michael Terrell, Google's Senior Director of Energy and Climate, stated, "The technology we need to achieve 24/7 clean energy isn't just for Google; it's for the world."

Google expressed its hope to build its first small modular reactor by 2030 and more by 2035 with the help of Kairos Nuclear Power. The reactor is expected to contribute 500 megawatts of electricity to the grid. According to the company's annual environmental report, Google consumed over 24 terawatt-hours of electricity last year. One terawatt equals 1,000,000 megawatts.

After experiencing severe declines in the 1990s and 2000s, the share of nuclear energy produced by new nuclear power plants worldwide has begun to rise again. While the United States has 94 conventional nuclear power plants, accounting for approximately one-fifth of the global total, few new nuclear power plants have been built in recent decades. Currently, there are over 60 nuclear power plants under construction globally, primarily in China and Russia. The number of nuclear power plants under construction in other regions is also increasing. In July of this year, the Czech Republic finalized a $17 billion nuclear project plan. Meanwhile, interest in small modular reactors (SMRs) is growing, as they are cheaper and easier to construct. A new era of nuclear energy may be dawning.

By the late 2030s, the combined statements of these three companies could potentially generate over 5,000 megawatts of electricity or even more.

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nuclear energy : Modular reactor

The United States is developing small modular reactors (SMRs), which generate approximately one-third of the electricity produced by conventional reactors. Developers claim that SMRs can be built faster and at a lower cost than large reactors, and they can be tailored to meet specific site demands.

If the Nuclear Regulatory Commission approves the construction and operation of their designs and the technology proves successful, developers aim to commence electricity generation in the early 2030s.

Catherine Huff, former Assistant Secretary for Nuclear Energy in the United States, warns that the US risks "grid paralysis" if new clean energy sources are not introduced during data center construction, leading to increased reliance on non-clean energy sources.

Small nuclear footprint

Doug Truhlar, Chief Nuclear Officer at the Nuclear Energy Institute, a trade association, states that new reactor designs are well-suited for industrial applications due to their small footprints and reliable electricity generation. Some reactors can even provide high-temperature heat on-site.

He remarked, "It seems ideally suited to support these facilities and can accommodate many different applications based on the amount of power customers require."

Both Amazon and Google have pledged to use renewable energy to combat climate change. Google has committed to achieving net-zero emissions by 2030 and running its operations on carbon-free energy every hour of every day across every grid it operates on. The tech giant states that it already meets 100% of its global electricity consumption annually through renewable energy purchases. However, the company has yet to make progress in reducing its emissions.

The partnership between tech companies and nuclear energy firms could be a match made in heaven. Large tech companies require electricity to power their new, large-scale AI data centers, and insufficient power supply in the US could slow technological development.

Nuclear energy is a climate solution as its reactors do not emit greenhouse gases that contribute to global warming, unlike power plants that burn fossil fuels like oil, coal, and natural gas. With the electrification of buildings and vehicles and the rise of AI, global demand for electricity is surging.

The International Energy Agency predicts that total electricity consumption by data centers could exceed 1,000 terawatt-hours by 2026, more than doubling from 2022 levels. It is estimated that one terawatt-hour of electricity can power 70,000 households for a year.

Kevin Miller, Vice President of Global Data Centers at Amazon Web Services, stated, "AI is driving a significant increase in the number of data centers and the electricity required by the grid." He added, "We believe that advanced new nuclear power capacity is truly critical and essential."

Amazon has stated that it will meet 100% of its global electricity consumption with renewable energy by 2030 and recently announced that it achieved this goal at the beginning of 2023. While the company has matched its consumption by purchasing an equivalent amount of renewable energy, this does not necessarily mean it is using renewable energy to power its operations.

According to Amazon's 2023 Sustainability Report, its electricity emissions decreased by 11% from 2022 to 2023, but its direct emissions (including fuel used for transportation and delivery) increased by 7%. The company also aims to achieve net-zero carbon emissions by 2040.

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AI The prospects of nuclear power

In 2021, after investing $375 million in Helion Energy, a nuclear fusion startup chaired by Sam Altman, he said, "Fundamentally, the two scarce commodities in the world today are AI and energy everywhere you look." Microsoft agreed last year to purchase electricity from Helion starting in 2028. Altman is also the chairman of Oklo, which focuses on the opposite reaction—fission, generating energy by splitting atoms, as opposed to nuclear fusion, which produces energy by merging atomic nuclei.

The tide turned in 2022 when the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, the federal agency overseeing commercial nuclear power plants and materials, rejected the company's application to build the "Aurora" nuclear power plant in Idaho, citing insufficient safety information. In October, the US Air Force withdrew its intent to award a contract for a microreactor pilot project that would power a base in Alaska.

Oklo plans to build the Aurora Nuclear Power Plant, which will occupy 13,000 square feet and be equipped with a 15-megawatt fission reactor. Smaller than previous nuclear power plants, it resembles a stylish ski chalet more than the iconic, curved towers of the Cold War era. The plant will be built at the Idaho National Laboratory, an institution where Oklo received a grant from the Department of Energy to test recycling nuclear waste into new fuel. The design is also safer, as the coolant is liquid metal instead of water, as he noted.

For decades, the share of the nuclear power industry in the US energy mix has remained relatively unchanged. Despite public opposition fueled by rare but catastrophic accidents such as Chernobyl in Ukraine in 1986 and Fukushima in Japan in 2011, the nuclear power industry has struggled to advance. Even the latest nuclear power plants produce waste that can remain dangerously radioactive for centuries, necessitating effective disposal or recycling, as Oklo is experimenting with.

However, as the climate crisis intensifies, a majority of Americans now support the expansion of nuclear energy—a Pew Research Center survey last year found this support increased from 43% in 2020 to 57%. Currently, nuclear power accounts for only 19% of total electricity generation in the US, with 93 commercial reactors in operation, down from a peak of 112 in 1990. It is estimated that up to 800 gigawatts of new nuclear energy will be needed by 2050 to achieve current green energy goals.

However, regardless of how rapidly demand grows, efforts to expand nuclear power should not be rushed. We need nuclear energy to achieve a low-carbon future. But for projects that historically take decades to complete, the regulatory process must be methodical. If we rush to meet our goals, we risk making serious mistakes.

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