Author| Wen Yehao

Editor| Wu Xianzhi

As the snow of the smartphone race gradually melts after years of accumulation, the mobile phone industry has also returned to long-lost bustling during the Double 11 sales promotion.

Counterpoint data shows that domestic smartphone sales increased by 2.3% year-on-year in the third quarter of 2023, marking the fourth consecutive quarter of year-on-year growth. An annual growth in the domestic mobile phone market for the first time in nearly five years is just around the corner.

Against this backdrop, vivo, OPPO, Xiaomi, Honor, and OnePlus have successively held product launches. Unlike in the past, this time around, mobile phone manufacturers seem more anxious, and the scent of gunpowder in the battle seems stronger.

On October 14, vivo launched the vivo X200 series; on October 24, OPPO unveiled the OPPO Find X8 series; on October 29, the Xiaomi 15 series debuted; on October 30, Honor presented its new Honor Magic 70 series; and just the day after the Honor launch, the OnePlus flagship also arrived as scheduled—the density of launches is so high that it's almost overwhelming. And all flagship models have made their appearances, showing off their strengths, with a sense of "hand-to-hand combat".

Avoiding Huawei, engaging in close-quarters combat

Unlike previous years, this year's October phone launches were unusually lively, with a hint of eeriness—mobile phone manufacturers seem somewhat anxious, rushing to bring their dishes to the table.

A simple example: usually, the "veil" of a new phone is often only lifted during the official phone launch, with most parameters typically relying on supply chain leaks beforehand.

Currently, the launch event has almost become a mere formality—some products have unboxing videos appearing a week before the official release, fully "naked," with only the price hanging as the last bit of suspense to be revealed at the launch event. As a result, some manufacturers have attracted endless complaints due to overly long launch events and lack of new highlights.

The palpable sense of urgency from vivo, OPPO, Xiaomi, and Honor this year may seem to stem from the need to seize a position during the Double 11 sales promotion on the surface, but behind this, there may also be pressure exerted by the returning Huawei.

It is reported that the Huawei Mate 70 series will hit the market in November this year, and according to supply chain leaks, the planned production volume of the Huawei Mate 70 series has increased by nearly 50% compared to the Mate 60 series, with inventory far exceeding last year's levels.

Before this, the rivalry between Huawei and Apple formed the fundamentals of China's high-end mobile phone market. Huawei's departure in 2020 was also a major incentive for vivo, OPPO, Xiaomi, and Honor to successively embark on premiumization. However, since then, although domestic mobile phone manufacturers have successively surged higher through high-end flagships and foldable screens, the pie they have carved out is limited.

After Huawei's return, it has taken over the entire high-end share. Counterpoint data shows that in the third quarter of 2023, Huawei ranked second with a market share of 16.4%, second only to vivo. Therefore, the "impatience" of mobile phone manufacturers' flagship models this year may be an attempt to "steal a march" before the launch of the Huawei Mate 70 series, seizing the prime time for the first sale. After all, no one wants a repeat of last year's "embarrassment" when OPPO collided with Huawei.

While vivo, OPPO, Xiaomi, and Honor are clustered in launching flagships, which can to some extent avoid Huawei, they cannot avoid engaging in close-quarters combat with each other—all are fighting in close-quarters combat, and whoever shows a flaw first may suffer more harm.

In this regard, vivo, which encountered a glare incident in the "comfort zone" of imaging, may have more say.

As vivo's flagship for the second half of this year, the vivo X200 Pro has shifted from a "word-of-mouth hit" to the focus of public opinion due to imaging glare issues. As Photon Planet stated in "A Ray of Light for vivo's Premiumization," the hard flaw on the "imaging flagship" has turned the imaging capability, which has always been a long suit for the brand, into a "stumbling block" for vivo's premium push, potentially shaking the high-end and imaging mindset accumulated by vivo over the past few years.

While vivo's remedial measures—OTA optimization and shading accessories—can alleviate the immediate problem, they cannot completely eliminate the rift with users, especially at a time when new models from various manufacturers are being released simultaneously and competition is fiercer than ever.

Apart from vivo, Xiaomi is also facing a formidable test this year. Although Lei Jun shone at the launch event with the Xiaomi SU7 Ultra, the pricing of the Xiaomi 15 series, which has risen from the previous generation's starting price of 3999 yuan to 4499 yuan, still makes people nervous.

Regarding the price increase, Lei Jun tweeted on the eve of the launch event that due to the upgrade to the 3nm process this year, coupled with increased costs in the supply chain for RAM and ROM, as well as significant R&D investments, the Xiaomi 15 indeed needed a price increase.

What Lei Jun said is true. It is reported that the prices of mobile phone components such as memory and screen modules have surged significantly this year, leading to widespread price increases among flagship models from various brands. However, the improvement in hardware specifications compared to last year is not obvious. For example, the vivo X200 with 12GB+256GB has increased by 300 yuan compared to the vivo X100; the price of the OnePlus Ace3Pro has also increased by several hundred yuan compared to the previous generation.

Xiaomi, on the other hand, has learned from Huawei and moved closer to a "luxury" positioning, introducing customized colors, diamond limited editions, and other versions in an attempt to raise the ASP of the Xiaomi 15 series.

However, for Xiaomi, which has long relied on cost-effectiveness, cost-effectiveness remains an important strategy even in the high-end market. This price increase caused by internal and external factors seems more likely to affect Xiaomi. Therefore, even though Lei Jun had already "vented" through Weibo in advance, this "bloody" trial may expose Xiaomi to more challenges.

AI phones, with increased gold content

Looking at this round of phone launches, while performance, imaging, and battery life are still competitive areas for manufacturers, with varying emphases, all manufacturers seem to have reached a "tacit understanding" in the field of AI, not sparing any "ink"."From 1997 when "Deep Blue" defeated chess master Garry Kasparov to the current flourishing of large models taking root, AI has been evolving, but commercialization challenges have lingered for a long time. The same is true for AI phones—in the second half of last year, so-called AI phones from various brands had already made their debut, but as of now, AI phones are still lukewarm in the consumer context.

Against this background, vivo, OPPO, Xiaomi, and Honor's full-scale emphasis on AI seems to be orchestrating a change—transforming AI from a value-added feature to a strategic chip for mobile phone manufacturers to reshape their systems and products.

While the end goal is the same, the paths differ. In the view of Zhao Ming, CEO of Honor, past AI lacked a "continuous" experience close to real user needs, and this "discontinuity" also reflects the superficiality of past AI phones. Honor, which advocates an open route, chooses to open its doors and let its YOYO intelligent agent collaborate with external parties to "fill in the gaps"."Although Honor's open route is commendable, the "degree" needs to be considered. If it is merely "borrowing strength," then AI phones may only become Truly worthy "API phones."

OPPO, on the other hand, seems more willing to keep core technologies in its own hands. Earlier this year, OPPO established an AI center and subsequently announced a 1+N intelligent agent ecosystem strategy. According to media reports, recently, the AI startup Wave Intelligence announced its disbandment, and several core team members, including the CEO and CTO, have collectively joined OPPO—showing a strong intention to recruit talent."It is not surprising that OPPO is investing heavily in AI, especially since OPPO has also ventured into the most complex and high-threshold field of chips through Zeeku. Although the outcome was not as expected, leading to a painful decision, the starting line in the AI field is not as distant as that in the chip field. Perhaps the results will be different this time."And among them, Xiaomi's attitude towards AI is worth mentioning. In the second half of last year, when AI phones were creating a buzz in the industry, Xiaomi was relatively quiet. When Photon Planet visited Xiaomi stores in the middle of this year, it was almost impossible to see