With the rapid development of intelligent connected vehicle technology worldwide, autonomous vehicles, especially Robotaxi, will gradually become an important part of future transportation. Robotaxi is an unmanned taxi centered on autonomous driving technology. By reducing reliance on human labor, it enhances transportation efficiency and safety, meeting the needs of large-scale urban travel. Globally, developed countries including the United States, Germany, and Japan are actively promoting the commercialization of Robotaxi. However, compared to the international market, the commercialization of Robotaxi in China has shown a more orderly and unique development path. This difference arises not only from asynchrony in technology application but also from differences in policy guidance, business model innovation, and market acceptance.

Robotaxi Industry Background

1.1 Definition and Core Value of Robotaxi

Robotaxi is the abbreviation for robot taxi, representing the practical application of highly automated driving technology in public transportation. Robotaxi typically relies on L4-level autonomous driving technology, meaning it can achieve autonomous driving without human intervention in specific geographic areas. In this scenario, autonomous driving technology not only provides higher safety guarantees but also significantly improves travel convenience and efficiency. By reducing human interference, Robotaxi can reduce traffic accidents caused by driving errors and optimize travel time through precise route planning and real-time traffic data analysis. Compared to traditional taxis, Robotaxi's advantages lie not only in reducing driver costs but also in lowering operating expenses through a smarter dispatch system and energy management system. Therefore, the application value of Robotaxi lies not only in changing urban travel patterns but also in promoting the further development of intelligent transportation systems and smart cities.

1.2 Comparison of International and Domestic Development

Globally, the commercial exploration of Robotaxi has become one of the key development directions in the field of autonomous driving. Taking the United States as an example, companies like Waymo and Cruise have conducted large-scale tests and operations in some cities and accumulated rich actual road test data. However, the development of Robotaxi in the international market has not been smooth. For instance, Cruise experienced multiple accidents during operations in San Francisco, leading to the suspension of its operating permit. This indicates that autonomous driving technology is still in the exploratory stage and requires more time and technological accumulation to address safety issues.

Development Paths of Robotaxi in the United States, Germany, Japan, and South Korea

Compared to foreign countries, China's Robotaxi development has adopted a steady and gradual approach, avoiding imbalances between regulation, technology, and public acceptance through policy guidance and technical safety verification. Although China's autonomous driving technology started later internationally, in recent years, through policy support and active exploration by local enterprises, a unique Robotaxi development path has emerged. For example, domestic enterprises such as Baidu Apollo, Pony.ai, and WeRide have conducted tests and commercial pilots in multiple cities, achieving significant progress.

Analysis of Robotaxi Commercialization Process

2.1 Key Drivers of Commercialization

The commercialization process of Robotaxi is driven by multiple factors, with the core drivers being summarized as policy support, technological progress, business model innovation, and market acceptance.

2.1.1 Policy Support

Policy support is the most important driving force for Robotaxi commercialization. The Chinese government attaches great importance to the development of intelligent connected vehicles and autonomous driving technology and has issued a series of support policies in recent years to encourage enterprises to conduct autonomous driving tests and commercial pilots in specific regions. For example, Beijing first opened road tests for L4-level autonomous driving and then further expanded to complex urban environments and highway scenarios to explore the possibility of autonomous driving. Additionally, Wuhan, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and other cities have provided road test permits for Robotaxi and gradually relaxed restrictions on unmanned testing. Under the guidance of policies, more and more enterprises can test autonomous driving technology in real scenarios and gradually accumulate operational data. These policies lay the foundation for the commercialization of Robotaxi and ensure its stability in terms of safety.

Evolution of China's Autonomous Driving Policies from 2017 to 2024

2.1.2 Technological Progress

Technological progress in autonomous driving is the core element enabling the commercialization of Robotaxi. Currently, Robotaxi technology mainly relies on a multi-sensor fusion system, with lidar, millimeter-wave radar, cameras, and other sensors working together to perceive the surrounding environment and perform precise route planning. However, in practical applications, multi-sensor fusion technology still faces challenges such as decreased sensor performance in extreme weather and the demand for computing power to process large amounts of data in real-time. In the future, an end-to-end autonomous driving technology architecture will become the core path to improving the technology ceiling. Unlike traditional modular architectures, end-to-end technology can improve decision-making accuracy and robustness while reducing information transmission loss through a unified algorithm model, better handling complex traffic scenarios.

Hardware Configuration of Some Autonomous Driving Enterprises

2.1.3 Business Model Innovation

In the commercialization process, Robotaxi not only relies on technological progress but also needs innovative business models to support its implementation. Currently, the primary business model for Robotaxi is the "Golden Triangle" model, where technology companies, vehicle manufacturers, and travel platforms collaborate to provide autonomous driving technology, vehicle production, and travel services, respectively. This model greatly reduces the threshold and risk of commercialization through collaboration and enhances the feasibility of business operations. For example, Baidu Apollo collaborates with vehicle manufacturers such as Beijing Automotive Group and Guangzhou Automobile Group, realizing Robotaxi operations through Baidu's Luobo Run platform. In the future, with the involvement of state-owned platforms, the stability and replicability of the Robotaxi business model will be further enhanced. Local governments are expected to form a more stable business operation system by participating in investment or operation management.

Golden Triangle Operation Model of Robotaxi

2.1.4 Market Acceptance

Market acceptance is also a critical factor determining the successful commercialization of Robotaxi. According to survey data, while most consumers express curiosity about Robotaxi technology and are willing to try it, many are still concerned about its safety. This phenomenon mainly stems from the public's unfamiliarity with autonomous driving technology and potential distrust of unmanned operations. Therefore, improving the reliability of autonomous driving technology, reducing accident rates, and ensuring operational safety through policy regulations will be key to boosting consumer confidence. As Robotaxi operations commence in cities like Beijing, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen, consumer acceptance is gradually increasing, and it is expected to become a mainstream mode of transportation in the future.

2.2 Analysis of Robotaxi Commercialization Paths

According to iResearch Consulting's analysis of the industry status and development trends, Robotaxi is expected to enter a period of rapid growth around 2028. This growth will mainly depend on further policy relaxation and continuous technological iteration. From 2024 to 2025, Robotaxi will continue to accumulate actual operational data and experience through small-scale commercial operations, gradually optimize autonomous driving algorithms, and expand its operating range through policy pilots in multiple locations. By 2026, with the gradual formation of the "vehicle-road-cloud integration" standard for intelligent connected vehicles, Robotaxi will enter a stage of large-scale deployment and achieve nationwide commercialization.

Evolution of China's Robotaxi Industry Development Path

Technological Challenges and Innovation Directions of Robotaxi

3.1 Limitations and Optimization of Perception Systems

Although current Robotaxi relies heavily on multi-sensor fusion technology for environmental perception, this technical approach is not without challenges. In complex urban environments, sensor accuracy may be affected by external factors such as inclement weather and complex terrain. For example, lidar detection capabilities decrease in rain and snow, and camera recognition capabilities diminish at night or in strong light. Additionally, due to the high demand for sensor data processing, real-time environmental perception and response capabilities are constrained by computing power. Therefore, one of the future focuses of technological innovation is how to further optimize perception systems and improve sensor performance in complex environments. The end-to-end autonomous driving architecture provides a new approach to solving this problem by enabling more efficient perception and decision-making through a unified algorithm framework, thereby enhancing system robustness and stability at the perception level.

3.2 Rise of Autonomous Chips

In addition to perception system optimization, Robotaxi technological progress is also reflected in hardware innovation, especially the development and application of application-specific integrated circuits (ASICs). Compared to traditional GPU chips, ASIC chips can achieve more efficient algorithm operations under low power consumption, making them particularly suitable for scenarios like autonomous driving that require real-time computing and energy management. For example, while Nvidia's Orin X chip leads in computing performance, its high power consumption has impacted Robotaxi operations. According to estimates, the actual driving range of a pure electric Robotaxi equipped with an Orin X chip will decrease by about 20%, directly affecting its operational efficiency. Therefore, the development of low-power ASICs will be crucial for Robotaxi to improve operational efficiency and reduce operating costs in the future. Self-developed ASIC chips will provide Robotaxi with more optimized hardware solutions, especially during mass production, where their cost advantages will be more pronounced.

Development Path of Robotaxi under Policy Support

4.1 Existing Policy Framework

The Chinese government has issued several support policies in the field of intelligent connected vehicles in recent years, laying a solid foundation for the commercialization of Robotaxi. On April 12, 2018, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, Ministry of Public Security, and Ministry of Transport jointly issued the "Administrative Measures for Road Testing of Intelligent and Connected Vehicles (Trial)", China's first national-level management regulation for autonomous driving road tests, providing a theoretical basis for the development of autonomous driving nationwide. Subsequently, many cities across the country have issued similar policies to promote the practical application and testing of autonomous driving technology. These policies include opening test roads, allowing unmanned operations, and providing financial subsidies. For example, in July 2024, Shanghai issued fully unmanned passenger testing permits to enterprises such as AutoX, Pony.ai, Baidu Zhixing Technology, and Saic Intelligence Technology, providing important policy support for the commercialization of Robotaxi. Overall, the stability and continuity of policies have become key guarantees for the rapid development of the Robotaxi industry.

4.2 Policy Impact on Commercialization

With policy support, the commercialization process of Robotaxi has progressed steadily. Currently, with the pilot implementation of the "vehicle-road-cloud integration" for intelligent connected vehicles, 20 pilot cities nationwide have begun building related infrastructure. This policy not only promotes the application of autonomous driving technology but also creates conditions for the commercialization of Robotaxi through improved infrastructure. According to predictions, relevant standards and regulations for L3 and L4 level autonomous driving will be successively issued around 2026, further promoting the implementation and application of high-level autonomous driving technology. By then, Robotaxi will gradually become an important part of the intelligent transportation system and be closely integrated with urban transportation planning, achieving broader commercialization.

Future Prospects and Investment Opportunities

5.1 Growth Potential of Market Size

With the commercialization of Robotaxi, China's travel market will undergo profound changes. According to survey data, the online car-hailing and taxi markets are gradually entering a stage of stock competition, and the introduction of Robotaxi will inject new growth momentum into the travel market. In the future, Robotaxi will not only expand its market share in first-tier cities but also form a scaled travel service network in second- and third-tier cities. By continuously expanding operating areas, increasing vehicle numbers, and enhancing technological maturity, Robotaxi is expected to become an important force in the travel market and gradually replace some traditional taxi and online car-hailing services.

5.2 Investment Opportunities

The commercialization of Robotaxi brings not only technological advancements but also abundant investment opportunities for various types of capital. Firstly, continuous innovation in autonomous driving technology is a key area for investment, especially technology companies involved in perception systems, chip, and algorithm optimization, which will be favored by capital. Secondly, with the gradual implementation of the "Vehicle-Road-Cloud Integration" standard system, the construction of intelligent transportation infrastructure will also become a hot topic of capital attention, including sensor suppliers, communication equipment manufacturers, and related solution providers. In addition, the operating platform of Robotaxi also has good investment prospects, especially the involvement of state-owned platforms provides long-term stable revenue expectations for this field.

Conclusion

Driven by policy support, technological innovation, and market demand, the commercialization process of Robotaxi in China is showing a strong momentum of development. Despite facing technical challenges such as perception system optimization and chip power consumption, through the coordinated development of policy, technology, and business models, Robotaxi will achieve large-scale commercial applications in the coming years. With the improvement of infrastructure and the increase in consumer acceptance, Robotaxi is expected to become an important part of future urban travel and make significant contributions to China's smart transportation and smart city construction.