This year, the future of humanoid robots has shone brighter. Time Magazine featured a cover story compiling and screening 200 of the "Best Inventions of 2024," with humanoid robots gracing the cover and being named one of the year's greatest innovations.

Some contend that humanoid robots are still far from takeoff and face hurdles in energy, materials, ethics, and more, characterizing current investments as mere conceptual spending. However, NVIDIA and Tesla's entry into this field signifies a strategic move to pave the way for future dominance. Overseas, companies like NVIDIA, Argon Mechatronics, Boston Dynamics, Apptronik, Figure AI, Unitree, Agility Robotics, and Tesla are redefining the possibilities of the next wave of intelligent automation.

01

Jensen Huang's Robot Vision

Recently, Jensen Huang's 'World Tour' reached Taiwan, where he unveiled NVIDIA's humanoid robot plans. NVIDIA's robot development team held its inaugural 'talent showcase' in Taiwan, inviting tool machine manufacturers interested in key component technologies and specifications to join its robot supply chain. Rumors even suggest the possibility of establishing an assembly base in Taiwan.

NVIDIA's Taiwan visit aimed to assemble the humanoid robot supply chain, targeting major companies like Hetron, Ming Li Precision, Ming Ying, Luosheng, HIWIN, and Solomon, with end products focusing on humanoid and specialized robots. Industry insiders predict clarity as early as next year, followed by product certifications, gradually shaping the Taiwan-US robot supply chain. The supply chain revealed that NVIDIA favors specific technology giants as assembly partners and may not exclude Taiwan for some product assemblies. Thus, Taiwan is poised to become a major humanoid robot production hub, mirroring the rise of electric vehicle manufacturing.

Hetron Group Chairman Shen Guorong noted that both NVIDIA and Tesla are aiming for humanoid robot development, hinting at promising business opportunities. "Hetron Group will undoubtedly be present in the humanoid robot field. Ming Ying has recently received numerous international inquiries and anticipates early results."

In late November, during Huang's doctoral hooding ceremony at the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, he listed humanoid robots alongside cars and drones as the three types of robots destined for mass production. At NVIDIA's GTC conference in March, Huang stood with nine humanoid robots from 1X Technologies, Agility Robotics, Boston Dynamics, Figure AI, Unitree, among others, to unveil NVIDIA's universal foundation model for humanoid robots—Project GR00T.

NVIDIA has developed Isaac Sim, a robot development simulation platform and reference application, and Isaac Lab, an open-source modular robot learning framework. Collectively, NVIDIA's software ecosystem for humanoid robots enhances efficiency and reduces costs for robot data training, allowing robots to 'train' in a virtual world before entering real-world environments, eliminating the need for complex hardware trials. The nine humanoid robots that showcased at NVIDIA's GTC conference in March were the first batch of 'seed users' for this ecosystem. Supported by this simulation mechanism, NVIDIA released Project GR00T, a general large model for embodied intelligence, named after Groot from the Disney animation 'Guardians of the Galaxy,' symbolizing humanoid robots' potential for extraordinary strength like Groot. GROOT enables robots to understand and process natural language and possess multimodal perception capabilities, allowing them to process information through various sensory inputs like vision and hearing. However, building a software ecosystem alone is insufficient for a chip-originated company like NVIDIA.

Robots, as AI's largest carrier, benefit from companies like Aescape, Cohesive Robotics, and Standard Bots using Isaac Sim for performance simulation and verification before deployment. Rendered.ai, SoftServe, and Tata Consultancy Services leverage Omniverse Replicator and Isaac Sim's synthetic data generation capabilities to guide perception AI models driving various robot applications. NVIDIA's underlying technology is expected to propel robot software advancements and accelerate robot commercialization prospects. As we stand on the cusp of humanoid robot mass production, the robot industry is poised for significant growth. Close attention is recommended.

02

Tesla: Battle-Ready

Tesla recently unveiled its humanoid robot 'Optimus,' and like NVIDIA, due to high demand for key components, Tesla has also targeted Taiwan's supply chain.

Moreover, US electric vehicle manufacturer Tesla recently applied to register the trademark 'Tesla Robot Action Figure' in the fitness equipment category. According to corporate information website Tianyancha, the trademark is currently under substantive examination.

The Tesla Robot Action Figure is described as "your mini autonomous assistant and humanoid robot friend," a 1:10 scale collectible and playable model with over 40 independent parts and 20 joints, meticulously designed to resemble the second-generation humanoid robot's appearance and movements. According to Tesla's website, the model is currently out of stock and retails for $40. Measuring 5.5 cm wide, 18.2 cm tall, and weighing 48 grams, it features over 40 independent parts and 20 joints, including a charging stand and a cyber hammer with the robot model.

After months of evolution, while domestic and foreign manufacturers fiercely compete in robotic dexterity, Optimus' dexterous hands remain at the forefront in terms of degrees of freedom alone.

1X, a startup invested by OpenAI, launched a household humanoid robot hand with 20 degrees of freedom in early September.

Figure's second-generation humanoid robot Figure02, released in August, is equipped with a fourth-generation robotic arm with 16 degrees of freedom.

In new products released by Zhiyuan Robotics in August, hand dexterity reached 19 degrees of freedom.

Fourier released the general-purpose humanoid robot GR-2 in September, featuring 12 degrees of freedom in the hand.

Tesla's humanoid robot's new dexterous hand, besides being equipped with coreless motors, is expected to incorporate designs like micro lead screws and micro harmonic drives, along with optimized tactile sensors and forearm weight reduction solutions. The potential impact of these new technological solutions could be even greater.

According to USA Today, Tesla's humanoid robot action figures sold out within 24 hours of their November release. Currently, these figurines sell on eBay for approximately $100 to $300. Additionally, Tesla unveiled the Atlas prototype in September 2022, aiming for an annual production capacity of 1 billion units post-mass production.

Tesla's factories plan to deploy over 1,000 or even several thousand humanoid robots next year. Reports suggest expanding these robots' applications to fields like elderly care, increasingly crucial due to population aging in many countries.

03

Surging Robot Demand

Citibank Global Insights analysts Rob Garlick and Wenyan Fei shared in-depth research on the humanoid robot market's development over the next 25 years. According to Rob Garlick, while robotics isn't new, significant advancements, particularly in AI, are emerging. He noted humanoid robots' potential in household services like folding clothes, mowing lawns, and elderly care, expecting substantial growth. Additionally, package delivery, construction, and food delivery are crucial humanoid robot application scenarios.

Wenyan Fei boldly predicted that by 2050, the humanoid robot market could reach a staggering $7 trillion. He mentioned Tesla's Optimus as a typical example of current humanoid robot development, with over 50 different types in various research and development stages. Despite the household market's huge potential, analysts believe humanoid robots will initially be widely used in industrial environments and the workforce.

Rob Garlick emphasized the short payback period and high returns on investing in humanoid robots, estimating some robots' payback period could be as short as 36 weeks. However, he acknowledged uncertainties regarding humanoid robots replacing human employees and the specific replacement rate. Simultaneously, companies aiming to deploy this technology face significant financial challenges in scaling humanoid robot production.

Furthermore, on November 29, Huawei officially entered the humanoid robot field, with mass production expected next year. This news immediately ignited the market. Huawei's entry isn't just a new technology project but a systematic integration of various technological achievements. Huawei's involvement in the humanoid robot industry isn't surprising.

Domestic humanoid robots' commercial mass production advancements have concentrated in the past two years, generally controlling costs within hundreds of thousands of yuan. Potential application scenarios exist in both industrial and consumer ends, with demo models focusing on motion and hardware performance breakthroughs. Judging by the latest available products, domestic manufacturers (except Xiaomi) have launched the latest humanoid robot demo models. In terms of commercialization, UBTech's Walker X, Zhishu H1, and Fourier GR-1 have commenced sales and delivery. The Kepler Pioneer program is scheduled for mass production and sales in the second half of 2024, while CloudMinds XR4 is expected to enter consumer households in 2025. Regarding long-term pricing, domestic manufacturers aim to control mass-produced robots' overall costs within hundreds of thousands of yuan. Specifically, Zhishu expects a retail price of less than several hundred thousand yuan, Zhiyuan Yuanzheng A1 hopes to keep costs within 200,000 yuan, and Kepler Pioneer is estimated to have an external sales price of $230,000. In application scenarios, current domestic manufacturer products target both industrial and consumer ends. UBTech's WalkerS, Xpeng's PX5, Zhiyuan Yuanzheng A1, and Kepler Pioneer are mainly aimed at industrial scenarios, while UBTech's WalkerX, Xiaomi's Cyber One, and CloudMinds XR4 lean towards consumer scenarios. Fourier GR-1 has application opportunities in both.

Unlike the domestic landscape, foreign mass production is concentrated in 2025 and beyond, with industrial fields as the primary application scenario. Product progress emphasizes embodied intelligence's smoothness and interactivity. Regarding commercialization, overseas mass production and delivery progress are relatively unclear. Among them, Digi plans first-batch delivery in 2024 and full-scale sales in 2025. During Tesla's Q4 2023 earnings call, it stated that Optimus is expected to start mass delivery in 2025. Atlas will serve as a humanoid robot research platform until entering automobile factories in 2024, indicating a slower commercialization process. In terms of long-term pricing, Digit's current price is $250,000, while Optimus is expected to be priced below $20,000 long-term, aimed at performing dangerous and repetitive tasks. In application scenarios, foreign humanoid robot manufacturers currently focus on industrial scenarios. Digit specializes in the logistics industry, while Atlas and Optimus are undergoing more factory manufacturing scenario training. Additionally, SanctuaryAI's Phoenix is applied in both industrial and medical scenarios.