Introduction

Hey, folks!

Today, WuRenCheLaiYe (Public Account: WuRenCheLaiYe) is here to discuss the latest advancements in autonomous driving technology:

Mine autonomous driving is quietly gaining momentum, poised for a transformative leap from nascent stages to widespread adoption. What lies behind this remarkable progression?

(For reference, please click:

"In 2024, autonomous driving sees mixed fortunes: Commercial vehicles achieve large-scale commercialization, and mine autonomous driving, logistics autonomous driving, and cleaning autonomous driving accelerate their deployment")

I. The Tumultuous Journey of Autonomous Driving

Over the past decade, autonomous driving has been akin to a rollercoaster ride, marked by two significant downturns and three surges of growth.

Each technological breakthrough triggers a flood of venture capital, akin to sharks sensing blood in the water.

However, the pace of commercialization lags, causing investors to reluctantly pull out. Remaining industry players often find themselves on the brink, scrambling for funding, pursuing IPOs, or even pivoting strategies.

As one insider noted, "Staying in the game is crucial; perseverance will eventually pay off."

In 2024, the long-awaited moment of glory has arrived!

From Luobo Kuaipao in mid-year to Cybercab in October, L4 autonomous driving, particularly Robotaxi, reignited the capital markets.

Behind this resurgence lies a hidden trend: orders for scenario-specific autonomous driving solutions have surged annually, and IPOs by industry players are accelerating.

What's driving this momentum?

II. Mine Autonomous Driving: A Business Boom

Using speed and scene openness as coordinates, L4 autonomous driving commercial scenarios can be categorized into four quadrants.

Since 2024, "low-speed - closed" environments, exemplified by mines, are likely to lead the way in large-scale commercialization.

In the autonomous driving commercial vehicle market, two primary business models prevail: product sales and fleet operations. Autonomous mining trucks stand out with immense potential for cost reduction, efficiency enhancement, energy conservation, and carbon reduction, delivering remarkable results. Consequently, domestic demand has skyrocketed.

Take autonomous driving in open-pit coal mines, for instance. According to a report by the China National Coal Association:

In 2023, there were 1,131 autonomous mining trucks in open-pit coal mines in China, which increased to 1,510 by September 2024, with about 55.3% of these vehicles achieving full autonomy by removing safety personnel.

By the end of 2024, this number is projected to more than double compared to 2023, reaching approximately 2,500 vehicles.

Cidi Intelligence's prospectus further predicts that total shipments of autonomous mining trucks in China will rise from about 800 in 2023 to approximately 3,800 by 2026. Globally, shipments are expected to increase from about 1,200 in 2023 to roughly 6,000 by 2026.

These figures indicate that mine autonomous driving has successfully navigated the challenging initial phase and is now scaling up significantly!

Hu Xinyi, founder and CEO of Bolai Technology, commented:

"2023 marked an inflection point, with volumes starting to increase in 2024.

Currently, many mines in Xinjiang operate over 100 autonomous mining trucks each, a considerable scale for L4 autonomous driving.

In 2024 alone, we have deployed over 300 autonomous mining trucks cumulatively."

Hu Xinyi also revealed that for L4 autonomous driving, a single project typically requires 3-4 personnel for operation and maintenance, with larger fleets yielding more pronounced economic benefits.

While the economic benefits of fewer than 10 autonomous mining trucks are difficult to quantify, the benefits become apparent once the project scale reaches tens or hundreds of trucks.

Lin Qiao, Strategic Vice President of E-Control Intelligent Driving, added:

"The challenge in mine autonomous driving lies in maintaining production continuity as the scale expands. Our strategy is to start focused, initially deploying autonomous driving in only 2-3 mines, and then scaling up within each mine.

Over the past five and a half years, we've followed this approach. In the first year, we got the trucks operational; in the second, we removed safety personnel; and in the third, we began scaling up.

By the end of 2023, we had deployed about 300 autonomous mining trucks, and by the end of 2024, we had nearly 900 trucks in actual operation, generating revenue approaching 1 billion yuan. Our autonomous driving technology has accumulated over 30 million kilometers of operation in mining areas."

III. Safety and Efficiency: The Dual Catalysts for Growth

Why is the mine autonomous driving industry experiencing an explosion of growth at this juncture?

Two primary factors are at play.

Firstly, mine accidents have significant impacts, and the pressure to ensure safe production is driving the acceleration of intelligent technologies.

In February 2023, a major mining disaster occurred at an open-pit coal mine in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, sending shockwaves through the industry. Relevant departments, including the National Energy Administration, issued numerous policies, prompting many mining enterprises to prioritize and deploy autonomous mining trucks.

Policy documents reveal that the top-level system has continuously strengthened industrial guidance for smart mines.

In March 2023, the National Energy Administration proposed promoting the construction and routine operation of unmanned driving systems in large open-pit coal mines.

In September 2023, the State Administration of Mine Safety Supervision explicitly limited the number of personnel per shift entering the pit for open-pit coal mines with annual production exceeding 30 million tons.

In January 2024, the State Council Work Safety Commission advocated enhancing automation and intelligence levels in industries such as mining.

Secondly, after years of refinement, the operational efficiency of autonomous mining trucks has significantly improved, approaching or even surpassing human levels, making them economically viable.

Liu Yudong, Executive General Manager of Chen Tao Capital, stated, "The autonomous driving track has undergone a qualitative transformation from quantitative changes. Industry players generally began trial operations around 2020, continuously refining their technology. Initially, they might only achieve 60% of human efficiency, but now they can reach 95%, fulfilling the conditions for large-scale expansion."

The China National Coal Association also believes that some typical open-pit coal mines in China have entered a mature application stage, setting an example. Both national and local governments place great emphasis on the application of autonomous driving technology in the acceptance of intelligent coal mines, encouraging more coal mines to deploy autonomous mining trucks.

IV. Who Will Emerge Victorious in the Competition?

Currently, the domestic market for autonomous mining trucks in open-pit coal mines comprises three primary player types: solution providers, OEMs, and IT vendors.

Solution providers, represented by E-Control Intelligent Driving, Wisdom Mining, Tagor Intelligent, Bolai Technology, among others, offer design, technology, and operational services, accounting for nearly 80% of the market share.

OEMs like Sany and Tongli, which produce mining trucks, also deploy autonomous mining trucks, accounting for about 15% of the market share.

IT vendors such as Huawei have also ventured into this field.

The core barrier in mine autonomous driving lies in the closed-loop system of deep integration between data and algorithms. Some experts jest, "The more dirt you eat, the more barriers you form."

In the early stages, the testing environment was harsh, and to collect data, R&D personnel had to stay on site.

For example, in a mine in the northwest where personnel movement was restricted due to special circumstances, the R&D director led a dozen R&D personnel to live in the mine for half a year to ensure R&D iterations, inadvertently widening the gap with competitors.

In reality, vendors with a deeper understanding of scenarios and better integration of data closed-loops and algorithms achieve higher marginal efficiency.

To obtain data, the support of mining enterprises is indispensable. Therefore, for companies with large-scale operations, the larger the data volume, the more likely they are to maintain a competitive edge.

V. Beyond Mines and Overseas: New Frontiers

The passenger vehicle market is mired in a fierce price war, and autonomous driving suppliers are facing a new round of reshuffling.

Although L4 autonomous driving has not yet reached the stage of stock competition, with an increasing number of players, early布局 is crucial.

Extending beyond mines to external operations represents a promising business venture.

Lin Qiao said, "We will consider expanding beyond mines, such as transporting ore from inside mines to transfer stations, which is fully reusable by customers and technically feasible."

Liu Yudong also explained that vehicles within and outside mining areas are similar, serving the same customers. The difference lies in the structured roads outside mining areas, making short-distance transportation, like from coal mines to thermal power plants, suitable for unmanned transportation.

Going overseas is another vital path for industry players.

According to a report by the China National Coal Association, open-pit coal mines in places like Australia and Russia have a high proportion of production. Coupled with the market layout of international vendors and overseas labor costs, the global market for unmanned driving in open-pit coal mines is vast.

China's unmanned driving solutions for open-pit mines are advanced in technology, adaptable to various scenarios, and cost-effective, catering to overseas customer needs.

Simultaneously, domestic enterprises' "going out" strategy fosters the "grouped going out" of the entire industrial chain.

Hu Xinyi stated that they plan to replicate project experience on a large scale, refine products, and venture overseas. E-Control Intelligent Driving even relocated its headquarters from Beijing to Shanghang, Fujian, to strengthen cooperation with local leading mining enterprises and plan overseas expansion.

In summary, mine autonomous driving stands at a new starting point, poised to enter a broader world. Let's wait and see if it can indeed become the pioneering wave of large-scale L4 autonomous driving commercialization in the future!

Reference: 21st Century Business Herald, Article "21 In-Depth | Mine Autonomous Driving Kicks Off from 1 to 100? The L4 Wave Rises Again, with Specific Scenarios Perhaps Tasting the First Sip" by Deng Hao