Introduction

Today, the automotive industry is transitioning from electrification to intelligence. At the forefront of this evolution, driverless taxi services, or Robotaxi, have emerged as a focal point in the industry.

According to Frost & Sullivan, by 2030, the global Robotaxi market is projected to reach 834.9 billion yuan, with China and the United States leading the charge.

In this article, we delve into the Robotaxi landscape in the United States, exploring the fierce competition among industry giants and the challenges they face.

(For additional reading, please click:

"Will Autonomous Taxi Robotaxi Turn a Profit by 2025? Pony.ai, Robotaxi, or WeRide: Who Will Lead the Pack?")

I. Robotaxi: From Sci-Fi Dreams to Everyday Reality

Robotaxi, a term that once belonged to the realm of science fiction, has seamlessly integrated into the daily lives of Americans.

From daily commutes to express deliveries and instant services, Robotaxi's applications continue to expand, with the online ride-hailing and taxi markets serving as primary battlegrounds.

Last October, J.D. Power released a study on the U.S. Robotaxi experience in 2024, covering five markets: Dallas, Las Vegas, Los Angeles, Phoenix, and San Francisco, with 3,773 respondents.

The results revealed a passenger satisfaction rating of 8.53 out of 10, indicating a high level of contentment among American citizens.

However, despite this satisfaction, concerns persist, particularly regarding safety. The 2018 incident in Arizona, where an autonomous vehicle struck a pedestrian, remains a haunting reminder.

In that incident, an autonomous vehicle with a safety officer on board hit a woman crossing the road at 70 km/h. The safety officer faced probation, and the woman tragically passed away.

Beyond safety, privacy and affordability are also paramount to consumers. 77% of passengers prefer driverless Robotaxi for private conversations, assuming equal service fees. No one desires their private discussions overheard by a driver.

Economically, Musk has asserted that Robotaxi's cost per mile is only $0.18, significantly lower than the $2-3 per mile of traditional taxis.

Furthermore, Tesla Cybercab owners can have their vehicles take orders and generate income, reportedly earning up to $30,000 annually. It appears that Robotaxi not only saves money but also generates revenue, making it a lucrative tool.

II. Waymo vs. Tesla: A Clash of Hardware and Software Approaches

In the U.S. Robotaxi market, Waymo and Tesla stand as titans, albeit with starkly different technical strategies.

Waymo adopts a hardware-centric approach, independently developing key sensors ranging from LiDAR and millimeter-wave radar to computing platforms, achieving full sensor self-reliance.

While costly, this approach ensures independence and enhances the consumer experience.

Currently, each Waymo autonomous vehicle costs approximately $140,000 with a lifespan of about four years. According to Alphabet's second-quarter financial report, Waymo's segment lost $1.13 billion that quarter.

Musk humorously referred to this as "Waymo money."

However, Waymo's capital expenditure has not ceased: In July last year, Alphabet invested $5 billion in Waymo, followed by another $5.6 billion in October, valuing Waymo at $45 billion post-investment.

Despite the funding, Waymo faces numerous challenges, such as homogeneous data primarily sourced from autonomous vehicle fleets and annotated data, hindering the enhancement of autonomous driving experience. Additionally, Waymo's geo-fenced test areas, while providing a "safe zone," limit its expansion speed.

In contrast, Tesla embraces a software-driven approach, utilizing a large model end-to-end technical solution known as the pure vision solution (FSD).

This solution employs neural networks for vehicle control, allowing for continuous self-learning and optimization of autonomous driving performance.

For instance, if a Tesla driverless car encounters a stray cat, all Tesla driverless cars will learn to avoid cats in the future.

However, this solution's disadvantage lies in the complexity of real-world driving scenarios, resulting in prolonged neural network learning and iteration periods.

Chris Anderson, head of TED, noted that in a 1.5-hour daily commute, Tesla disengages from autonomous driving 3-4 times. While Waymo can yield to fire trucks, Tesla cannot.

He Xiaopeng, founder and CEO of Xpeng Motors, observed that Waymo excels in San Francisco's urban areas, whereas Tesla's FSD performs exceptionally well in Silicon Valley and on highways.

He remarked that Tesla's autonomous driving has made remarkable progress within a few months.

III. Policy and Commercialization: Dual Challenges for Robotaxi

Despite Robotaxi's rapid development in the United States, policy and commercialization remain significant hurdles.

Safety remains a public concern.

The U.S. government adopts cautious regulatory measures for autonomous driving. Recently, Tesla's FSD faced a serious investigation by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA), focusing on Tesla vehicles' performance under poor visibility conditions, including multiple severe accidents.

Additionally, deploying Robotaxi in each U.S. state involves three stages: testing, piloting, and deployment, with varying processes across states.

Musk lamented, "Executing procedures state by state in the United States is very painful." Current regulations also cap the number of autonomous vehicles operated by a single company annually at 2,500, hindering corporate expansion.

However, with the U.S. government's change, the landscape seems to be improving. U.S. media reported that members of President-elect Trump's transition team plan to prioritize federal legislation for fully autonomous vehicles within the Department of Transportation.

If the U.S. Department of Transportation passes legislation increasing the annual deployment of autonomous vehicles from 2,500 to 100,000, it will significantly boost the Robotaxi industry in the United States.

In terms of commercialization, Robotaxi enterprises also grapple with substantial challenges.

According to Huaxin Securities' calculations, the Robotaxi industry will achieve a single-vehicle profit model around 2027.

Cost reduction primarily stems from the decline in "hardware costs + remote safety officer costs" due to enhanced intelligent driving capabilities.

From the revenue perspective, as Robotaxi's "operating hours increase + empty running rate decrease," it is anticipated to achieve a balance between single-vehicle profit and cost by 2027.

Tech analyst Gene Munster believes that by the end of this decade, Tesla's operating profit will significantly increase, potentially by 10%-155%.

However, not every enterprise enjoys Tesla's public attention and resource support. Even leading enterprises like Waymo face losses, let alone others.

IV. Conclusion: Who Will Prevail in the Future of Robotaxi?

The future of Robotaxi is replete with opportunities and challenges.

The competition between Waymo's and Tesla's technical routes, coupled with the dual tests of policy and commercialization, introduces numerous variables into the industry.

However, with the continuous advancement of technology and the gradual relaxation of policies, Robotaxi will undoubtedly occupy a prominent position in the future travel market.

As the saying goes, "Running water does not compete for speed but for continuity."

Every enterprise aiming to establish a foothold in the Robotaxi field must prioritize enhancing its commercialization capabilities to survive fierce competition.

Ultimately, only the survivors will have the chance to emerge victorious.

In summary, Unmanned Vehicles Are Coming (public number: Unmanned Vehicles Are Coming) believes that the Robotaxi industry in the United States resembles an intense competition where giants showcase their prowess but also confront the dual challenges of policy and commercialization.

Who will stand out amidst this chaos and successfully overcome the obstacles? Let's wait and see!

Dear reader, what are your thoughts?