original New Energy Concept （ID：xinnengyuanqianzhan）

In the era of electrification and intelligence, new energy vehicles have long become a general trend, with the domestic retail penetration rate of new energy vehicles exceeding 50% for the first time in July.

Faced with this situation, many consumers are curious about what electric vehicles will look like in five or ten years.

"Future electric cars may serve as intelligent mobile terminals, becoming entry points and centers for the Internet of Everything." "The cockpit within the car can switch between lounging and social modes." "The perfect intelligent electric car is one that works as a ride-hailing vehicle when I'm at work and automatically picks me up after work."

In fact, as automakers and battery manufacturers compete to establish themselves in the new energy market, the future of electric cars is gradually taking shape.

1. Future electric cars require a solid foundation

When discussing the future, the word "technology" naturally comes to mind, and an electric car equipped with end-to-end autonomous driving technology will undoubtedly be highly sought after by consumers.

Currently, with continuous innovation in intelligent driving by new energy automakers like Tesla and Xpeng, autonomous driving is no longer a distant dream but a readily available technology.

For example, Tesla, as a pioneer in end-to-end autonomous driving technology, has now advanced its FSD technology to the v12.5 stage. It is understood that the parameters of this version have been improved by over five times compared to the previous version, enabling a comprehensive switch to end-to-end solutions for highway and urban driving.

Xpeng has always emphasized intelligent driving since its inception. Its latest intelligent driving system, the AI Tianji System XOS 5.2.0, has successfully achieved end-to-end mass production.

It is evident that the benefits of autonomous driving extend beyond just the early entrants into the new energy market.

In July, Baidu Apollo's "Luobo Kuaipao" driverless taxis, deployed and operated in Wuhan, gained popularity. Since then, the public's perception of existing autonomous driving technology has shifted from the "lab" to daily life.

Image/Luobo Kuaipao driverless taxi

Source/Screenshot from the Internet by New Energy Outlook

To date, Luobo Kuaipao has launched fully autonomous driving services in first-tier cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Wuhan, Guangzhou, and Chongqing.

In August, Huawei's ADS 3.0 achieved end-to-end human-like driving, enabling vehicles to travel from home to work without driver intervention.

Ten years ago, who would have imagined that concepts could one day become a reality.

Of course, for an ideal electric car in the future, autonomous driving alone is insufficient. For it to run on the road, convenient charging is also essential, making ease of charging another expected upgrade for consumers.

Currently, the most convenient charging method on the market is battery swapping, which allows for the direct replacement of fully charged batteries at swapping stations. This method not only surpasses charging in speed but also ensures faster energy replenishment than refueling. Additionally, battery swapping effectively allays consumer concerns about battery life and safety.

As one of the earliest automakers to adopt battery swapping, NIO currently employs a "bottom-mounted" battery swapping method, enabling the replacement of a power battery within three minutes.

Image/NIO's "bottom-mounted" battery swapping

Source/Screenshot from the Internet by New Energy Outlook

Regarding the layout of charging facilities, NIO has established 23,009 charging piles and 2,480 battery swapping stations nationwide. According to NIO's official plan, the company aims to achieve county-level charging coverage by June 30, 2025, ensuring that every county has NIO charging stations.

2. One chassis, unlocking "hundreds of models"

It's important to note that end-to-end technology and battery swapping stations are merely appetizers. For future electric cars, possessing a high-quality skateboard chassis is akin to unlocking a "Transformer," offering endless possibilities for electric car manufacturing.

What is a skateboard chassis?

In simple terms, it integrates batteries, motors, electronic controls, linear braking, steering, and other components onto the chassis, decoupling the body and chassis. This design enhances the integration and flatness of the vehicle's chassis, giving it a skateboard-like appearance, hence the name "skateboard chassis."

Image/Skateboard Chassis

Source/Screenshot from the Internet by New Energy Outlook

Unlike traditional monocoque body designs, the skateboard chassis serves as a ready-made "foundation" for automakers. This simplifies the work of automakers, who only need to build the upper half of the vehicle on top of this existing foundation.

It's easy to imagine that as the skateboard chassis matures, automakers will have more room for innovation and can more quickly introduce diverse models.

One day in the future, the cars we drive may support personalized customization services, much like shoes, bags, or jewelry.

However, this perspective is somewhat superficial.

For automakers, possessing a skateboard chassis offers more than just shortened product development cycles and easy access to "hundreds of models." Compared to conventional chassis, the skateboard chassis significantly improves production efficiency, reduces manufacturing costs, and enhances space utilization.

Specifically, the integration of multiple components simplifies the production process for skateboard chassis-equipped models, enhancing production line efficiency and vehicle quality. Additionally, the reduction in assembly steps and component count correspondingly lowers overall manufacturing costs.

Moreover, a nearly flat chassis maximizes cabin space, addressing the issues of high or protruding underbodies common in many electric vehicles on the market.

Furthermore, the skateboard chassis's fully electronic drive-by-wire system significantly reduces vehicle response time, enabling quick actions during emergency braking or avoidance situations, thereby enhancing safety. This system also includes fault diagnosis capabilities, allowing for immediate isolation and repair measures upon vehicle failure, minimizing safety risks.

Launched at the end of March 2024, the Avitar 12 is equipped with CATL's Panshi skateboard chassis. This chassis represents the world's first pure electric chassis technology solution adhering to the highest safety standards.

Image/Avitar 12 equipped with CATL's Panshi skateboard chassis

Source/Screenshot from the Internet by New Energy Outlook

Specifically, the Panshi skateboard chassis is based on CATL's CIIC integrated intelligent chassis and CTC technology, capable of absorbing over 80% of the vehicle's collision energy and ensuring no fire or explosion in a 120 km/h frontal collision.

Therefore, for consumers, purchasing an electric vehicle equipped with CATL's skateboard chassis in the future is akin to adding an extra layer of security to their journeys.

3. Buying an electric car in the future will be as simple as buying a mobile phone

What do you envision the future of electric cars to be like?

Perhaps, as the saying goes, "A thousand people have a thousand Hamlets in their eyes."

However, it is foreseeable that as a consumer, you may replace your electric car as frequently as you replace your mobile phone.

Lang Xuehong, Deputy Secretary-General of the China Automobile Dealers Association, stated, "The replacement cycle for traditional gasoline-powered vehicles is roughly 6 to 8 years, while that for new energy vehicles is approximately 3 to 5 years. The iteration frequency of new energy vehicles is converging with that of smartphones."

Upon exploring the reasons behind this phenomenon, it becomes apparent that the shift in consumer attitudes towards car ownership is not solely attributed to rising socioeconomic levels. After all, cars are significantly more expensive than mobile phones.

So, how did electric cars evolve into a "fast-moving consumer good"?

On the one hand, advancements in intelligent technology and hardware updates have prompted continuous model upgrades by new energy automakers. The accelerated replacement cycle of new energy vehicles inevitably gives consumers the impression that their current models are outdated. On the other hand, government policies such as trade-in subsidies have also fueled new energy vehicle consumption. For example, on August 16, the second round of trade-in policies increased subsidies for purchasing new energy passenger vehicles to RMB 20,000.

Image/Details of the second round of trade-in policies

Source/Screenshot from Guangming Daily by New Energy Outlook

Xu Xu (pseudonym), a post-90s individual, recently acquired her new beloved car—a Xiaomi SU7. She revealed that she had owned her previous car, an Ora Good Cat, for less than a year. "It's very convenient to sell my old car and buy a new one now. You can do it all at the dealership of the new car you want. You just need to decide which model to buy, and the dealership staff will take care of the rest for you."

Over half of the hundred new energy car owners interviewed by New Energy Outlook expressed, "To experience the latest intelligent technology and hardware, trading in for a new car is the best option."

Of course, some consumers advised that car purchases should still be based on one's actual needs and financial situation.

Amid this trend, battery manufacturers are also stepping up their efforts to upgrade battery technology, aiming to usher in a new era for the automotive market.

Currently, most vehicle-mounted power batteries on the market are liquid lithium-ion batteries, primarily consisting of ternary lithium and lithium iron phosphate types. Due to their liquid form, they are prone to leakage or even fire in cases of overcharging, over-discharging, or collisions. Additionally, some liquid batteries may contain toxic substances in their electrolytes and materials, posing potential environmental hazards.

In contrast, solid-state batteries offer higher energy density and thermal stability, making them less prone to spontaneous combustion or explosions. Furthermore, due to the smaller interface resistance between the electrodes and electrolyte in solid-state batteries, their charging speed is significantly faster than that of liquid batteries.

Image/CATL's vision for solid-state batteries

Source/Screenshot from the Internet by New Energy Outlook

Currently, CATL, a leading Chinese battery manufacturer, has taken the lead in the solid-state battery field and anticipates small-scale production by 2027.

Based on this, other battery manufacturers have followed suit and begun laying out plans for solid-state batteries.

New Energy Outlook will continue to monitor the surprises that electric cars, armed with the four black technologies of autonomous driving, battery swapping, skateboard chassis, and solid-state batteries, will bring in the future.