Tearing off the veil of 5G again, the enterprise market has become a hot potato, and mobile phone users are the gold mine for operators

09/02 2024 503

When 5G was commercialized, the industry painted a bright future for operators, saying that the enterprise market was the future for operators. Applications such as 5G mining and 5G ports could open up a huge market for operators. However, the first-half results of operators showed that these markets are now becoming a big pit.

The results of operators show that China Mobile, China Telecom, and China Unicom grew by 3%, 2.8%, and 2.9% respectively, with revenue growth slowing down significantly again. What worries operators even more is the increasing risk of bad debts in the enterprise market, which makes operators less interested in the enterprise market.

China Mobile's accounts receivable amounted to RMB 84.3 billion, an increase of 53.7% from the end of 2023; China Telecom's accounts receivable amounted to RMB 54.9 billion, an increase of 78.6% from the end of 2023; and China Unicom's accounts receivable amounted to RMB 60.1 billion, an increase of 50.2% from the end of 2023. These substantially increased accounts receivable mainly come from the enterprise market, indicating that the enterprise market is far from being as rosy as portrayed.

In contrast, individual consumers basically pay first and then consume, posing no risk of bad debts for operators. On the contrary, operators' revenue growth in recent years has precisely relied on individual users. Operators have prompted a large number of users to switch to 5G packages with higher thresholds through marketing and other means. Over 1.3 billion of China's 1.6 billion mobile phone users have switched to 5G packages, driving operators' continuous growth since 2019.

Of course, these users who have switched to 5G packages may not necessarily use 5G networks. According to data disclosed earlier by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, there are only 800 million 5G mobile phone users in China, meaning that nearly 500 million users who have switched to 5G packages are not using 5G networks. They were merely induced to subscribe to 5G packages.

In fact, before the commercialization of 5G, operators had already vigorously developed the enterprise market. The most successful example is the Internet of Things (IoT). Thanks to the efforts of the three major operators, IoT users had exceeded 1 billion at that time, making China the fastest-growing and most successful market for IoT globally. Applications such as automatic meter reading and shared bicycles belong to IoT applications.

However, most of these IoT applications used low-speed networks such as 2G and 4G Cat1 at that time, as these applications did not require faster speeds or low latency. Instead, they had higher requirements for low power consumption and ultra-long standby time, which low-speed networks could better meet.

The highly successful development of IoT was a big disappointment for operators. At that time, the data released by operators showed that the Average Revenue Per User (ARPU) of IoT users was as low as approximately RMB 1. The revenue generated by 800 million IoT users accounted for less than 2% of China Mobile's total revenue, demonstrating that the enterprise market was far less substantial than the individual user market.

Even today, five years after the commercialization of 5G, China Mobile's results show that nearly half of its revenue comes from mobile phone users, with another 20% coming from home broadband users. The revenue contribution from the enterprise market remains low. Nowadays, the enterprise market has also led to a substantial increase in operators' accounts receivable, highlighting the risks associated with it. Therefore, instead of becoming the future cake for operators, the enterprise market may pose risks that could cause operators to further prioritize the individual market over the enterprise market.

It can be seen that the rosy picture painted by industry enterprises for operators is nothing more than a fantasy. For operators, enterprise applications emphasized by 5G are like a chicken rib – tasty but bony, or even a risk, rather than a delicacy. This undoubtedly tears off another veil of 5G. The key to generating revenue from 5G lies in individual users, as enterprise demand for 5G is not strong. Even coal mining enterprises have cited the substantial increase in safety investment as one of the reasons for their declining profits, indicating that they are not too optimistic about the so-called 5G applications.

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