Not doing it at all is the most rational decision.

Who is still buying compact six-seat/seven-seat SUVs?

Recently, Reuters reported that insiders claimed Tesla plans to produce a six-seat version of the Model Y in China starting at the end of 2025. Tesla has asked suppliers to prepare for double-digit growth in Model Y production at its Shanghai factory.

However, this claim was quickly refuted by Tesla China, which described it as 'false information.'

In fact, earlier on, there was also a rumor circulating online that Tesla plans to deliver two refreshed Model Y variants next year. The five-seat version, internally code-named 'Juniper,' is expected to be delivered in Q1 2025, while the seven-seat version is expected in Q4. The seven-seat variant may be adjusted specifically for the Chinese market or become an exclusive model sold only in China.

With so many rumors pointing to Tesla Model Y with more seating capacity, it's hard not to speculate about the possibility of a six-seat/seven-seat version in the domestic market.

The concept of 'the more seats, the better' prevailed in the domestic auto market for a while and still meets the travel needs of some families with multiple children. As long as the dimensions and wheelbase meet the standards, manufacturers will find ways to squeeze in a third row. But will a Model Y forcibly upgraded from five seats to six/seven seats really boost Tesla's sales?

'More is better' is a thing of the past; it's better to sit comfortably than to sit more

Previously, I analyzed the five-seat version of the AITO M9 and concluded that the era of pursuing more seats is over. Nowadays, people prefer 'seat equity,' where each seat offers a comfortable seating experience.

Although Tesla China has refuted the information about a domestic six-seat/seven-seat Model Y, we can still analyze the feasibility of such a model in the Chinese market and whether an extra row of seats can lead to more significant sales growth.

In fact, Tesla's seven-seat Model Y has been available as an option in foreign markets since 2021. New buyers can choose to add $2,000 (currently equivalent to approximately RMB 14,228.2) to get a fully foldable third row of seats, along with matching armrests, charging ports, and cup holders.

When not in use, the fully foldable third row of seats does not affect the trunk space of the Model Y. When needed, the third row can be unfolded to accommodate two more passengers.

There's always a significant gap between imagined scenarios and reality. The Tesla Model Y is a crossover representative of 'coupe SUVs.' To look good, it adopts an elegant coupe-like fastback design at the rear, deliberately narrowing the tail to resemble a 'raised coupe.' This comes at the cost of trunk space. Moreover, with a wheelbase of only 2890mm, the Model Y is at best a mid-size SUV. Its lateral and longitudinal dimensions do not meet the basic requirements for three rows of seats.

In other words, legroom and headroom in the third row of the Model Y are very limited. An adult of average height sitting upright in the third row would have their head above the rear windshield, compromising the space for second-row passengers. As a result, neither row offers a good seating experience. However, there is one exception: smaller children, for whom the rear space of the seven-seat/six-seat Model Y is more suitable.

Ultimately, the seven-seat/six-seat Model Y suits families with multiple children considering new energy vehicles. But as the children grow up, they will need a larger car to meet their travel needs.

Several years ago, many automakers started adding a third row of seats to SUVs. A 'classic' example is Mercedes-Benz's GLB/EQB, which crammed a third row into a vehicle with a length of only 4638mm. At the time, some dealership salespeople revealed that the seven-seat version could carry more people, offered good value for money, and wasn't too large, making it the main seller.

Later, the market returned to rationality, and people realized that scenarios requiring more than five seats were rare, leading to a decline in interest in third-row seats. Tesla's refutation of the six-seat/seven-seat Model Y rumor makes sense given the market demand. The company likely seriously considered the feasibility of a six-seat/seven-seat model in the domestic market.

On the other hand, there are many options for families with multiple children in China. For less than RMB 200,000, they can buy a mid-to-large SUV with ample space for three rows and full configurations. A Model Y with three rows clearly arrives at an inopportune time and is likely to struggle in the Chinese market.

Alternatively, seven seats/six seats seem more like a compromise for the Model Y. The automotive market is highly competitive, and the once 'sales king' of electric vehicles indeed needs to create new selling points and configurations to stimulate new demand.

Facing Competition, the 'Sales King' of Electric Vehicles Faces Challenges

Tesla's Model Y is widely recognized as the 'sales king' of electric vehicles, rapidly growing in sales and surpassing the Model 3 in a short time. In 2023, with sales of 1.22 million units, the Model Y surpassed the Toyota Corolla in terms of both sales volume and average transaction price, solidifying Tesla's position as the world's top-selling electric vehicle brand.

However, the Model Y's sales myth did not continue into 2024. In August, its overall sales were surpassed by BMW for the first time, with new models like the BMW iX1, iX3, and i5 taking a significant share from Tesla. The recently launched Volvo EX30 also posed a considerable challenge to Model Y sales.

Looking domestically, the Model Y remains the sales champion among new energy SUVs, maintaining a steady sales volume of 30,000-40,000 units. The refreshed Model 3 also showed signs of fatigue, with August sales of 9,928 units, dipping into the four-digit range. While the Model Y continues to be the mainstay of sales, it doesn't mean Tesla can rest easy.

Those who follow Tesla's official updates know that the company offers various incentives and subsidies to promote new car sales and frequently promotes its electric vehicles' hardware technology and cost-effectiveness to regain some credibility.

The most direct reason for this is the rise of competitors. New energy brands like BYD, ZEEKR, LIXIANG, and AITO have emerged in recent years, investing heavily in technology. With continuous advancements in battery, electric motor, and electronic control technology, these brands offer increasingly higher performance, integration, and intelligence. Their products cover a wide range, supported by comprehensive industrial chains, and are now leading in many aspects. Coupled with the surge of hybrid vehicles, which have outpaced pure electric vehicles in growth, Tesla faces considerable pressure.

The rapid iteration of domestic new energy vehicles also indicates that automakers' manufacturing experience and technological level are on the rise.

In contrast, the Model Y hasn't undergone a generational change in many years. The latest model simply received a new interior, aligning with the refreshed Model 3 and incorporating some optimizations in detail and an updated HW computing platform. While its handling remains superior, there aren't many other surprises. Many people had high hopes for the refreshed Model Y, but so far, it appears to have mostly undergone cosmetic changes, retaining its familiar flavor in other aspects.

As for FSD and Tesla's highly anticipated Cybertruck, there has been no news since Elon Musk's recent visit to China. The former seems far from realization, and the latter seems hindered by various factors. The Model 3 and Model Y lack compelling selling points in 2024, with minimal updates, suggesting a focus on cost reduction and efficiency enhancement.

The rumored entry-level Tesla electric car hasn't made substantial progress, but XPENG has beaten Tesla to the punch with the recently launched XPENG MONA M03, which has surpassed 30,000 pre-orders and is poised to become XPENG's new sales pillar.

You may have noticed that recent new car launches by domestic brands rarely compare their models with Tesla's counterparts, making them less visible. On the one hand, domestic brands have established confidence, and on the other, their new energy vehicle technologies have surpassed those of Tesla, eliminating the need for superiority through launch PPT comparisons.

Tesla seems like today's Apple, with incremental updates and insignificant features added to the iPhone rather than substantial innovations.

Rowing against the current, not advancing is retreating

The new energy vehicle industry still hopes Tesla can bring more 'big moves.' I believe Tesla's layout is visionary, such as recent advancements in end-to-end large model intelligent driving and network occupancy, as well as the longer-term pure vision intelligent driving route. While domestic suppliers seem to be working on similar initiatives, Tesla has indeed taken an earlier step.

Many also believe that FSD has immense potential and could deliver a solid blow to various intelligent driving solutions in the domestic market.

However, the market cares little about a company's efforts and focuses solely on its results. To respond to competitive challenges, Tesla must demonstrate its advantages in the electric vehicle race through actions. Rowing against the current, not advancing is retreating. No one wants to see any manufacturer stagnate.

A seven-seat/six-seat Model Y may be a relatively unique approach. If introduced as a China-specific model, it would likely require modifications to the product form, incurring costs and time. While there is still demand for six/seven seats in the Chinese market, it's unlikely to accept such a bundled selling point. Alternatively, Tesla could accelerate the development of new models, expanding its model and price range coverage. The tactic of 'more children make a better fight' isn't outdated yet.

Elon Musk has repeatedly praised China's new energy vehicles in public. When will Tesla make progress alongside them?

Source: Leitech