The HUAWEI Mate XT and iPhone 16, which were supposed to pass each other by, are about to engage in a "head-to-head battle"

Source: Sina Tech

It's once again time for Huawei and Apple, the two mobile phone giants, to face off with their latest devices. And this year, Huawei has come up with something new that differs from traditional phone concepts.

On September 2, Huawei's official terminal Weibo account suddenly announced that it would hold the Huawei Extraordinary Brand Ceremony and HarmonyOS Intelligent Driving New Product Launch on September 10 at 2:30 pm, while Apple's autumn event was scheduled for 1 am that same day.

In other words, Apple and Huawei's new product launches this year will go head-to-head on the same day, like the proverbial "needle against the wheat."

In terms of products, Apple's event is expected to follow the usual format, unveiling the latest iPhone, Watch, and AirPods. Meanwhile, Huawei's official terminal account released multiple videos on September 4, explicitly hinting through celebrity endorsements that the long-rumored three-fold Huawei Mate XT would make its debut at the event. This rumor was also corroborated by the early excitement in the capital market surrounding flexible displays.

Furthermore, Yu Chengdong, Chairman of Huawei's Device BG and Intelligent Vehicle Solutions BU, teased the upcoming product, saying, "Huawei's most groundbreaking, innovative, and disruptive product is here! This is an epoch-making product that others have thought of but failed to achieve. After five years of perseverance and investment, we have turned science fiction into reality. Please look forward to Huawei's masterpiece!"

Previously, Yu Chengdong had repeatedly showcased and used Huawei's three-fold phone in public, publicly stating that it would be officially released in September.

Xiaomi, Honor, and OPPO are also waiting for Huawei's three-fold phone to pave the way.

So, how technologically advanced is the three-fold phone? How far along are Huawei's competitors? Why is Huawei the first to release a three-fold phone? Can it successfully "ambush" Apple with just this new three-fold product?

01

Three folds are not difficult; HarmonyOS ecosystem is the real moat

In fact, the three-fold design is not a new concept. Since Samsung's first foldable phone debuted in 2021, major phone manufacturers have been exploring other folding form factors in addition to developing and mass-producing dual-fold devices.

For example, just last month, "King of Africa" Transsion Holdings unveiled their three-fold concept phone, the Tecno Phantom Ultimate 2, showcasing their ambition in foldable technology.

According to reports, the Tecno Phantom Ultimate 2 features a unique dual-hinge design. When folded, it is similar in size to a regular smartphone at 6.48 inches, but when unfolded, it transforms into a 10-inch large-screen device akin to a tablet.

Tecno claims that the Phantom Ultimate 2 incorporates advanced TDDI technology, integrating touch and display drivers into a single chip. This integrated design results in a thinner device, with a thickness of just 11mm when folded. Additionally, the device utilizes Transsion's proprietary hinge technology and has passed a durability test of 300,000 folds.

Apart from Transsion, OPPO has also showcased its three-fold concept phone.

According to JANE Tech, based on the renderings, OPPO's three-fold phone adopts a dual-hinge design with well-controlled screen bezels, giving it a borderless feel. When unfolded, the phone is relatively thin, and its back appears to be made of a similar material to the Find X7 series' faux leather. The phone's interface features prominently divided sections, such as widgets and taskbars, which might mislead some into thinking it's a tablet.

Zhou Yibao, head of OPPO's Find series, stated that OPPO has been working on numerous three-fold concept phones and prototypes since the previous year. Once the new product is launched, OPPO fans will hear the story behind the three-fold design.

Furthermore, as early as July 12, Honor CEO Zhao Ming announced that Honor had completed the technology for a three-fold phone and would determine the timing of commercialization based on consumer demand. "For us, the three-fold design is not a technical issue but a matter of business choice," he said.

He also revealed that Honor had laid out technologies for various foldable form factors, including three-folds and rollables, but it was not yet time to announce them. Zhao Ming's words suggest that Honor's three-fold technology is ready for mass production, with the specific launch date contingent on market response.

According to tech blogger Smart Pikachu, Xiaomi has also started working on a three-fold phone, but it is still in the technical exploration and market observation stage, waiting to see how the market responds to three-fold phones before deciding on commercialization.

However, despite major phone manufacturers claiming to have relevant technological accumulations and even prototypes, none have yet released mass-produced products, indicating significant challenges in the final implementation process.

For example, in terms of hardware, according to Taidu Labs, compared to clamshell and book-style foldables, three-fold phones pose higher requirements for device thinness, screens, hinges, heat dissipation, signal reception, and acoustic performance.

CINNO Research notes that three-fold phones face numerous technical challenges in components such as screens and hinges. However, building on the years of development in dual-fold technology, continuous advancements in materials science, engineering, and manufacturing processes, particularly the rise of domestic supply chains leading to cost reductions and improved yield rates for foldable displays, are gradually addressing these hardware issues.

Beyond hardware breakthroughs, the larger challenge for phone manufacturers with three-fold phones lies in software ecosystem compatibility.

When unfolded, a three-fold phone resembles a tablet, necessitating developers to optimize software for different screen sizes and aspect ratios, adapting interfaces for phones, tablets, and even PCs. Failure to do so would detract from the user experience rather than enhance it, potentially making the device cumbersome in daily use.

For manufacturers other than Huawei, this is a daunting task requiring a "ground-up" approach. However, for Huawei, which has been developing HarmonyOS for a long time, this is less of a challenge due to HarmonyOS's native ability to adapt to different screen sizes, enabling "once-developed, multi-deployed" functionality.

In this context, with the stage set by HarmonyOS, deploying the application ecosystem is primarily a matter of time. Given Huawei's influence and the rapid pace of HarmonyOS NEXT ecosystem development, it is likely that ecosystem compatibility will be achieved swiftly.

This may be the key reason why Huawei can be the first to launch a three-fold phone and why Yu Chengdong confidently claims that the Huawei Mate XT is a product that others can envision but cannot replicate.

02

Is the three-fold design just a "gimmick"? Huawei has more tricks up its sleeve to "ambush" Apple

Thus, Huawei's three-fold new product indeed boasts ample playability and technological sophistication. Still, capturing Apple's potential customers with such a product presents significant challenges.

While Huawei's three-fold product, as Yu Chengdong puts it, represents Huawei's most groundbreaking, innovative, and disruptive offering, a product that others aspire to but fail to create, relying solely on the three-fold design may not achieve the same impact on Apple's high-end market share as last year's Mate 60 series.

The primary reason lies in product positioning and pricing. The all-new iPhone 16 series and Huawei's Mate XT do not compete in the same segment.

Regarding pricing, based on iPhone 15 series pricing and media reports, the starting price of the iPhone 16 is expected to be around 5,999 yuan, while the higher-end Pro and Pro Max versions may retail for approximately 7,999 yuan and 9,999 yuan, respectively. The top-of-the-line version, if priced similarly to the iPhone 15 Pro Max 1TB, would cost around 13,999 yuan. Sources indicate that while the Huawei Mate XT's price may be lower than that of the Huawei Mate X5, its starting price is still around 13,000 yuan.

In terms of user targeting, foldable phones inherently cater to a niche market. According to TrendForce data, global foldable phone sales amounted to approximately 15.9 million units in 2023, accounting for just 1.4% of all smartphone sales. These devices primarily appeal to consumers seeking cutting-edge technology and premium experiences, whereas Apple's iPhone 16 targets a broader consumer base.

In other words, while these two products may compete in the ultra-high-end segment, the competition is unlikely to be intense due to their differing form factors and target audiences.

However, wealthy individuals willing to splurge on Huawei's three-fold model are unlikely to hesitate to also purchase a top-of-the-line Apple device.

This implies that for Huawei to replicate last year's success in upending China's high-end smartphone market in the autumn of 2024, it needs a more accessible, mass-market-oriented product.

After all, despite criticism over its design stagnation since the iPhone X's release over six years ago, with few eye-catching updates, Apple, as the "defending champion," has established a robust software ecosystem and a loyal fan base. Simply maintaining these strengths has positioned Apple as an insurmountable barrier for other phone brands in the high-end market.

According to Counterpoint's latest Q2 2024 global best-selling smartphone rankings, Apple dominates the top three spots with the iPhone 15, iPhone 15 Pro Max, and iPhone 15 Pro, accounting for over 10% of the market share combined, showcasing Apple's dominance in the high-end market.

Source: Counterpoint

To overcome this barrier, Huawei needs a product with real volume potential to compete. So far, it seems almost certain that this product will be the Mate 70 series.

According to renowned tech blogger "Digital Chat Station," this event will also preview the Mate 70 series, potentially retaining some potential iPhone 16 customers. This aligns with rumors of the Pure HarmonyOS (HarmonyOS NEXT) and new 5G Kirin chip debuting in the fourth quarter.

Perhaps this is Huawei's real main course for Apple and the high-end market. On September 10, let's savor Huawei's technological spectacle in the relatively niche foldable phone category.

References:

1. "Apple iPhone 15 Tops Global Smartphone Sales in Q2 2024 with 4.1% Market Share," Counterpoint; 2. "Breaking News! Huawei Officially Declares War on Apple!" by Leikeji; 3. "Huawei vs. Apple on the Same Day" by Tech Aesthetics; 4. "Outpacing Huawei! China's First Three-Fold Phone Is Here, and It's Impressive" by EXTFANS; 5. "Beating Huawei to the Punch! Transsion Unveils Three-Fold Phone" by Daily Tech News; 6. "Honor's Three-Fold Phone Ready for Mass Production, but When Will It Launch? Let's See How Huawei Fares First" by Tech Aesthetics; 7. "Huawei Mate70 Preheating Begins!" by Gadget Geeks.