With less than a week to go until the annual "Tech Spring Festival Gala," the internet is abuzz with topics related to the iPhone 16, making it difficult to keep up. Some analysts even suggest that this is part of Apple's marketing strategy – leveraging its financial power to dominate headlines, trending topics, and even your social media feeds!

Notably, on the same day, September 10th, another heavyweight player, Huawei, will unveil its epoch-making flagship device. As the saying goes, "In a narrow path, the brave will prevail." The tension in the Chinese social media sphere is palpable, with these two giants poised to engage in a fierce competition that may even intimidate their competitors.

01, iPhone 16 Intercepted by Huawei MateXT?

Despite ranking second in global smartphone sales, Apple consistently maintains the top spot in terms of profits, accounting for over 80% of the industry's total profits. There's even a joke in the industry that while Apple eats the meat, its competitors can only sip the soup. However, even Apple has faced criticism from fans for a lack of innovation in recent years, especially with Huawei's tri-foldable phone packed with cutting-edge technology, creating a stark contrast in public perception.

Huawei MateXT, the Extraordinary Master, has officially announced Yang Mi, Yu Hewei, and Xu Xin as celebrity endorsers, along with Andy Lau continuing as brand ambassador. This star-studded lineup is unprecedented in China's smartphone history, underscoring Huawei's commitment to this tri-foldable product.

On September 2nd, Richard Yu, CEO of Huawei Consumer Business Group, tweeted that Huawei's most groundbreaking, innovative, and groundbreaking product is here – something others have thought of but failed to achieve. After five years of dedication and investment, we've turned science fiction into reality. This is Huawei's masterpiece – stay tuned!

Those familiar with Richard Yu know that while he's prone to boasting, his past boasts have often materialized. So when he says he's turned science fiction into reality, it raises the bar for public expectations.

Coincidentally, on September 3rd, Huawei BG CTO Li Xiaolong also expressed his excitement, stating, "This is the product I've dreamed of for many years, and finally, it's here." Keen-eyed netizens even dug up a relevant video interview from years ago, supporting his claims.

Five years of R&D investment, all focused on a single foldable device – only Huawei could pull that off. Typically, flagship development cycles don't exceed 18 months. So what exactly does Richard Yu mean by "epoch-making" and "science fiction"?

Industry insiders believe that achieving mass production of the world's first tri-foldable phone is indeed a phenomenal hardware feat. Many brands have only showcased prototypes, far from actual mass production and market release.

More clues suggest that Huawei has already patented "mid-air imaging" technology earlier this year. Combined with recent TVCs, the ads subtly hint at some form of "holographic projection," even driving up related stocks.

Will Richard Yu bring interactive air imaging technology from science fiction to reality? We'll have to wait until the September 10th launch event to find out, but one thing's for sure – this product has piqued the curiosity of many consumers.

On the other hand, Apple's trending topics often revolve around new phone colors or debates on whether or not to use WeChat. What groundbreaking features does the iPhone 16 series itself offer? Will Huawei's new tri-foldable impact iPhone sales?

02, Is Apple's 90 Million Shipment Target Still Achievable?

The competition between Apple and Huawei has injected new vitality into the mobile, digital, tech, and AI industries. From a broader perspective, we should embrace this rivalry as it pushes giants to showcase their strength, stimulating market demand for upgrades.

To put it bluntly, if Apple and Huawei can no longer deliver game-changing features, the industry would hit a low point. Competitors like Xiaomi, OPPO, Vivo, etc., might struggle to survive. The fact that leaders are still fighting means there's still room for others to grab a piece of the pie.

According to TrendForce's latest report, Apple expects to produce 86.7 million iPhone 16 units in the second half of the year. Given the flagship's iteration cycle, shipping over 90 million units annually is a crucial target for Tim Cook. Can Apple achieve this ambitious sales goal with such a high ASP?

Counterpoint's global best-selling smartphones list for Q2 2024 shows that the top three spots are occupied by iPhone 15 models, with iPhone 14 ranking sixth. The remaining spots are taken by low-end Samsung and Redmi devices, paling in comparison to Apple's offerings.

Compared to the iPhone 15 series, what new highlights does the iPhone 16 series bring?

On the hardware front, the most notable changes in this generation of iPhones are the increased memory capacity and the solid-state button. Surprisingly, Apple has upgraded from 6GB to 8GB RAM. Long-time fans are ecstatic. Another addition is a solid-state button, speculated to be a dedicated camera launch button.

Other upgrades, like the chip and display, are more incremental. Still, Apple remains the first to adopt 3nm process technology in smartphones. Can the A18 SoC outperform Qualcomm or MediaTek?

On the software side, the biggest surprise is the integration of Apple Intelligence. While this AI capability was previously unavailable in mainland China, Chinese fans can now experience it with the iPhone 16 series. Industry insiders speculate that Apple's domestic AI partner may be ERNIE Bot.

While the hardware upgrades are modest, they're still welcome improvements. The new AI experience, however, adds to Apple's cost, leading some analysts to predict a price hike for the iPhone 16, which could dampen fan enthusiasm.

Still, there's a chance Apple could unveil a compelling reason for fans to upgrade, making price a non-issue. After all, Apple's core audience isn't price-sensitive; they just need to be convinced.

Globally, Apple faces increasing pressure in the Chinese market due to Huawei's comeback and Xiaomi, OPPO, and Vivo's relentless pursuit. As competitors ramp up their offerings, it's becoming increasingly challenging for Apple to secure growth.

Understanding this context sheds light on why Apple and its supply chain partners are heavily investing in India.

IDC data shows that India shipped 35 million smartphones in Q2 2024, up 3.2% YoY. In the ultra-premium segment (above $800), Apple dominates with a 77% share from iPhone 15, iPhone 15 Plus, iPhone 14, and iPhone 14 Plus models. Overall, Apple commands an 83% market share, far ahead of Samsung (16%).

Apple's premium positioning has resonated well in India, establishing its high-end brand image. Moreover, there's still significant growth potential in the region. In Q2 2024, Apple's market share reached 6.7%, up 24.2% YoY, closing in on Xiaomi.

With India's Modi government offering various incentives to Apple, and given the country's vast population, it's clear why Apple is deepening its roots there.

TechInsights predicts a 3% YoY growth in global smartphone shipments in 2025, with Apple poised to overtake Samsung as the world's largest smartphone manufacturer. Goldman Sachs raised its target price for Apple to $276, citing the announcement of iPhone price hikes, earlier-than-expected Apple Intelligence and app launches, new iPad releases, and telecom promotions as key drivers for the stock.

For Apple, the ongoing dichotomy between institutional optimism and social media pessimism resembles an unresolvable contradiction. Ultimately, consumer response post-launch will determine the true impact of these announcements.

The proof is in the pudding!

Reference Materials: IDC, Counterpoint, TechInsights, Goldman Sachs, etc. Some images sourced from the internet.