Compared to pre-orders, manufacturers pay more attention to actual sales and activations, as activation numbers are transparent and speak for the true picture of the market.

At this year's 'Tech Spring Festival,' Apple's iPhone 16 faced off against Huawei's Mate XT tri-fold phone, creating a tense atmosphere.

First, the two tech giants again clashed by scheduling their launch events on September 10. The promotional copy also carried a hint of competition – Apple's autumn event was themed 'Moment of Truth,' while Huawei's preheat on Weibo boasted ' Extraordinary works ， Moment highlight .'

Before the battle even began, Huawei stole the show by suddenly opening pre-orders for its highly anticipated tri-fold Mate XT. Although the price remained a mystery, within 24 hours of pre-orders opening, Huawei's official store showed over 2.11 million reservations.

Furthermore, fueled by the Mate XT's immense popularity, scalpers have become active, with estimates placing the scalped price between 60,000 and 80,000 yuan, and possibly reaching as high as 100,000 yuan, targeting price-insensitive consumers or the high-end gift market. On second-hand platforms like Xianyu and Zhuanzhuan, numerous proxy bidders have also expressed interest in taking orders.

Between the Mate XT and iPhone 16, one represents an innovative breakthrough with its tri-fold screen, while the other deepens AI intelligence. Was this clash between giants accidental or inevitable? Is a tri-fold phone truly necessary? Will other manufacturers follow suit? Does Apple feel threatened?

AI Raises the Stakes, Tri-fold as the New Solution?

Over the past two years, AI has emerged as a new trump card for smartphone manufacturers. Brands like Huawei, Honor, OPPO, Vivo, and Xiaomi have all prioritized AI features in their new product launches, including the recently announced iPhone 16, as they strive to carve out a niche in this emerging field.

However, market feedback indicates that while AI technology has intensified competition across the industry, the overall market landscape remains largely unchanged, especially in the high-end segment where Apple maintains a seemingly unshakeable position.

Market analysis firms Canalys and Counterpoint support this observation. Canalys data shows that in Q2 2024, Apple led the global premium smartphone market (above $600) with a 62% market share. Counterpoint's research similarly reveals that Apple captured four spots among the top ten global smartphone sales in Q2 2024, with the iPhone 15 series dominating the top three positions.

Why has AI had limited impact on manufacturers' shipments so far? The reasons are twofold:

Firstly, AI phone features tend to be similar across brands, resulting in severe homogenization. According to product introductions, most AI applications in both exploratory and commercially available AI phones focus on common functionalities like AI-generated content, image recognition, image creation, AI conversation, and AI call summaries, failing to create significant differentiation.

Secondly, from a user experience perspective, the tangible benefits of AI phones are not prominent. On social platforms, some consumers joke that AI features are more like 'enhanced versions of Meitu and Google Translate' rather than revolutionary changes.

During market visits, Lu Jiu Commercial Review observed that salespeople in mobile phone stores often emphasized traditional selling points like camera quality and chip performance over AI technology. 'Compared to AI technology, which is not immediately apparent, consumers still prioritize direct usage experience, price, and brand preference,' noted one salesperson.

A Canalys consumer survey ranked AI lower than hardware specifications and value for money in attracting mobile users.

It's worth noting that Apple has not neglected AI technology. The newly launched iPhone 16 emphasizes AI features. Moreover, Apple's recent moves, such as reducing shipments of the Vision Pro headset and canceling its car project, suggest a heightened focus on AI phones.

'Instead of competing directly with Apple in the emerging AI market, it's more strategic to concentrate efforts on foldable phones, where Apple is yet to venture,' said industry observer Wang Man. 'From dual-fold to tri-fold, it's understandable that brands aim to differentiate themselves to encroach on Apple's position. Apple sticks to its approach and methodology. What it lacks is foldable technology, making 'folding' a path for domestic brands to ascend the premium market. This applies doubly to tri-fold phones,' Wang added.

Canalys Research Analyst Zhong Xiaolei previously told Lu Jiu Commercial Review that foldable phones offer domestic brands a competitive edge over Apple in the premium market due to their unique form factor.

Is a Tri-fold Phone Truly Necessary?

Undoubtedly, amidst a sluggish smartphone market, foldable phones have continued to grow in sales.

TrendForce data shows that global foldable phone shipments reached 15.9 million units in 2023, up 25% year-on-year. As a niche market segment, this growth amidst overall market pressures is commendable.

iResearch reports further confirm this trend, predicting sustained high growth in foldable phone sales from 2024 to 2025.

Driven by strategic considerations, profit margin enhancement, and market share competition, brands like Huawei, Honor, OPPO, Vivo, Xiaomi, and even Samsung, which has largely retreated from the Chinese market but retains global influence, have prioritized foldable technology research and innovation.

These brands have not only rushed to launch new products but also made foldable phones a new focus of competition, alongside AI technology. Huawei's upcoming tri-fold phone, in particular, has garnered widespread industry attention.

Senior industry economist Liang Zhenpeng told Lu Jiu Commercial Review, 'I believe tri-fold technology represents an innovative advancement in the smartphone market. Tri-fold phones offer more flexible folding forms to meet diverse user needs, potentially giving them a competitive edge in the premium segment.'

'Huawei has been working on this phone for over a year. In 2024, when the mobile phone industry lacks groundbreaking technologies or products, this launch can positively impact the market by essentially opening a new racetrack,' noted an industry veteran, emphasizing that tri-fold phones' technological highlight lies in their interaction mode, which is more akin to tablets than traditional smartphones.

In fact, the concept of tri-fold phones is not new, and other manufacturers besides Huawei have also laid the groundwork.

For instance, Tecno, a sub-brand of Transsion Holdings, unveiled its tri-fold concept phone, the Phantom Ultimate 2, on August 29, showcasing its versatility across different forms and scenarios.

On the same day, Zhou Yibao, head of the OPPO Find series, revealed that OPPO had been developing numerous tri-fold concepts and prototypes since the previous year, promising to share the tri-fold story with OPPO fans after the new product's launch.

Furthermore, Honor CEO Zhao Ming earlier stated that Honor has layout in multiple foldable technologies, including tri-fold and rollable, but the time for announcements has not yet come. This implies that Honor's tri-fold technology is ready for mass production and commercialization, with the specific launch timing contingent on market response.

Earlier, Samsung showcased two tri-fold concept phones, the Flex S and Flex G, in 2022 and presented tri-fold prototypes at MWC 2024.

Some brands, like Xiaomi, take a more conservative stance on tri-fold phones. An insider close to Xiaomi told Lu Jiu Commercial Review that Xiaomi has no plans for such products due to their high costs, which may not align with its target audience, and reservations about the future market size of tri-fold phones.

'Many manufacturers previously bet on curved screens, but Xiaomi stuck to flat screens. After the success of Xiaomi 13 and 14, Vivo also announced plans for flat screens,' the insider added, noting that 'sticking to one's product rhythm is also a viable survival strategy.'

It's evident that while brands hold varying attitudes and strategies towards tri-fold phones, Huawei is poised to be the first to launch a commercial tri-fold product.

Who Stands a Better Chance of Winning?

Despite manufacturers' claims of technological accumulation and prototype showcases, the delay in mass production underscores the numerous challenges between concept and commercialization.

'If we consider the emergence of foldable phones as a 0-to-1 breakthrough, tri-fold phones represent a 1-to-100 improvement upon existing foldable forms,' Zhong Xiaolei analyzed for Lu Jiu Commercial Review. Compared to traditional horizontally foldable phones, tri-fold devices undergo numerous enhancements without introducing entirely new components.

'Tri-fold phones require an additional hinge compared to horizontally foldable devices. Without significantly impacting overall weight, the hinges must be lightweight yet durable. Furthermore, tri-fold form factors demand higher flexural strength from screen panels and UTG glass. The thinner design also poses technical challenges in stacking internal components and thinning batteries,' Zhong explained.

The aforementioned industry veteran shares this view, emphasizing that the biggest challenge in foldable phones lies in achieving thinness, which involves optimizing component stacking within limited space. 'In dual-fold phones, the battery and mainboard are usually positioned on opposite sides, with protruding cameras, due to space constraints,' the expert noted.

From a physical standpoint, the transition from single to double hinges and the selection of flexible screens are manageable challenges for tri-fold phones, the expert opined. 'Maintaining overall thinness likely involves thinning the middle section, which is relatively straightforward.'

Regarding costs, the addition of screens and components inevitably increases manufacturing expenses. 'If overall sales remain low, the cost of this tri-fold phone cannot be effectively spread, driving up the unit cost. However, even with limited volumes, this investment can serve as a market test,' the expert said.

Beyond hardware challenges, software ecosystem adaptability poses another significant hurdle for tri-fold phones. 'The bigger challenge lies in software adaptability,' Zhong noted. 'Early horizontally foldable devices faced software compatibility issues, which have gradually improved through collaboration between manufacturers and third-party developers over the past year or two. Currently, foldable phone penetration stands at just over 1%. Given the limited scale of tri-fold products, even with system-level optimizations, third-party developers may lack incentive to independently adapt apps for this category. This requires manufacturer push and time to materialize results,' Zhong explained.

Given these technical, cost, and software adaptability challenges, the industry generally believes that other manufacturers will likely remain cautious about tri-fold phones in the short term.

'Huawei's initial batch of tri-fold phones will be limited to a few thousand units, intended as a real-world sales test,' the industry insider revealed, adding that manufacturers will prioritize actual sales and activations over pre-orders due to their transparency in reflecting market vitality.

Overall, tri-fold phones are still in the 'muscle-flexing' stage for manufacturers, and whether they can poach potential Apple users remains to be seen by the market.