Author | Cheng Zhenbiao

Editor | Li Guozheng

Publisher | Bangning Studio (gbngzs)

| Editor's Note

How many cars can China's land accommodate? Today, China's total population accounts for roughly 18% of the world's total, yet its total car ownership accounts for around 21% of the global total, with per capita ownership exceeding the global average. Currently, China's annual car market sales account for about one-third of the world's total, suggesting that China's total car ownership will continue to grow significantly in the future. At this stage, China's GDP accounts for about 17% of the world's total, but its share of total cars is relatively high, appearing prominent, excessive, and redundant. For some regions and individuals, car consumption is no longer a rigid demand, and the development of the car market is not well-coordinated with the overall economic and social development. This view comes from Cheng Zhenbiao's new manuscript, "The Concept of Grand Thrift: A Necessary Idea for Sustainable Development." Following "From Big to Strong: The Path to Sustainable Development of China's Automobile Industry" and "The Concept of Grand Quality: The Quality Concept China's Automobile Industry Should Have," this is the third book in Cheng's trilogy on new development concepts for the automobile industry and his final work. Cheng Zhenbiao was the former Deputy Chief Engineer of Dongfeng Motor Corporation, serving as Chief Engineer, Translator, and Reviewer of the company's Science and Technology Information Research Institute, as well as a leading figure in science and technology information. He enjoys a (lifelong) special government allowance from the State Council. After graduating from university, he devoted himself to the construction of the Second Automobile Works and has been dedicated to tracking and researching domestic and foreign automobile technology and industrial development for over 50 years. During this time, he has published numerous works (translations, monographs, essays, etc.), totaling approximately 10 million words, and has won 18 national, ministerial, and provincial-level awards for outstanding achievements and technological progress, including 12 from Dongfeng Motor Corporation. After officially retiring in 2004, he continued to focus on research related to the country and the automobile industry, completing and publishing 10 monographs totaling approximately 2.5 million words. Notably, "Exploring the Path of China's Independent Automobile Development and Brand Creation: The Concept of Grand Autonomy," recommended by the China Society of Automotive Engineers and published by Beijing Institute of Technology Press, and three books in the series "The Road to Becoming a Powerful Automobile Country" published by China Machine Press, including "From Big to Strong: The Path to Sustainable Development of China's Automobile Industry," "The Concept of Grand Quality: The Quality Concept China's Automobile Industry Should Have," and "Fuel Cell Vehicles: The Most Strategic Breakthrough in New Energy Vehicles," have garnered widespread attention in academic and industry circles. Cheng's broad and insightful vision, forward-thinking, and innovative ideas and theoretical perspectives are not only novel and incisive but have also been proven by China's economic and social development process, with some ideas and perspectives becoming one of the theoretical foundations for many enterprises to formulate development strategies. At 81 years old, Cheng Zhenbiao wrote "The Concept of Grand Thrift: A Necessary Idea for Sustainable Development" during the pandemic. The book consists of 6 chapters and 25 sections, with the last 3 chapters focusing on the discussion of car consumption, thoroughly exploring how China, with a population of 1.4 billion, should use cars scientifically, rationally, and efficiently. Starting today, Bangning Studio will publish excerpts from the book, with slight editing, for readers' enjoyment.

The so-called concept of grand thrift is a broad-based concept of thrift that encompasses not only the narrow sense of thrift but also significantly enhances the effective use efficiency of wealth (value) through innovative thinking, advanced technology, exquisite craftsmanship, and other means, creating more wealth with fewer resources. Upholding thrift as a priority refers to both preserving and saving existing wealth and enhancing and saving incremental wealth. Thrift in enhancing and saving incremental wealth, based on the concept of grand thrift, is even more valuable and desirable.

The concept of grand thrift gives birth to new productivity. Currently, China has quietly formed a new thrift economy, a new economic form and a new kind of productivity characterized by high technology (knowledge) content, good benefits, high quality, low investment, environmental friendliness, and low costs, in line with the requirements of the new development concept. This, in turn, has spawned many innovative industries, such as the sharing economy and circular economy.

In today's era, cars are one of the most important modes of transportation and a hot topic in current social and economic development. Based on the concept of grand thrift, China should advocate moderate car consumption.

Car consumption has deviated from moderation

Some people may worry that advocating moderate car consumption based on the concept of grand thrift will affect the development of the automotive industry and stimulate economic growth. This concern is unnecessary. On the contrary, only by truly understanding and practicing the new development concept can China's automotive industry achieve sustainable, healthy, and high-quality development, transitioning from large to strong. To this end, the industry must change its mindset or understanding in two main areas.

First, the industry places too much emphasis on quantitative (physical) data while neglecting qualitative (such as output value or sales revenue) data. In particular, there is a "special fondness" for production and sales data, often used as a basis for ranking and seating arrangements among enterprises.

Undoubtedly, quantitative data is important and can explain many issues, but it cannot explain all issues, and in many cases, it is difficult to explain essential issues.

The automobile market offers a wide range of products with significant differences in quality and price. If enterprises can shift their focus from pursuing quantity alone to quality and efficiency (i.e., high-quality development), significantly improving these aspects, their business performance and results will be much better.

For example, by innovating previously low-value, low-profit (mid-to-low-end) products to make them more technologically advanced, higher quality, and higher-tier, their market value will also increase, allowing a single car to sell for the price of two or more original cars. Ultimately, although sales volumes may decrease compared to the past, corporate earnings will increase, contributing more significantly to the country and society. Currently, China's automotive industry is on the right track to vigorously develop intelligent new energy vehicles, with "lane changing and overtaking" already a realistic possibility.

Second, shift car sales from primarily relying on the domestic market to both domestic and international markets.

For many years, China has been the world's largest automobile producer and seller, with an annual output of approximately 27 million vehicles. Some argue that there is still room or potential for further expansion in China's market size, but if so many cars remain in China each year, it will eventually reach the ceiling of market capacity sooner or later. Therefore, the industry must proactively accelerate its transformation and plan ahead for how to increase its international presence.

In fact, having strong export capabilities or a high overseas market share (as pure exports may encounter tariff restrictions from relevant countries, necessitating the establishment of factories in sales locations for local production) is also one indicator of a country's automotive industry strength.

Based on years of tracking the global automotive landscape, the author summarized in 1995: "The development of the automotive industry in automotive powers is largely aimed at demonstrating their economic and technological strength and meeting the needs of others, rather than merely satisfying their own needs. In light of this, their automotive export rates generally exceed 50%, or their overseas production and sales volumes exceed domestic ones. The multinational automotive companies in these countries either have automotive export rates exceeding approximately 50% or overseas sales or revenue exceeding domestic ones" (see "The Concept of Grand Quality: The Quality Concept China's Automotive Industry Should Have," written by Cheng Zhenbiao and published by China Machine Press in August 2014).

Although this conclusion was made nearly 30 years ago, it remains relevant for the traditional global (fuel) automotive industry. Simply put, a country that produces cars solely to meet domestic demand cannot be considered an automotive power. China is not yet an automotive power, but it is reassuring to see that China is vigorously developing new energy vehicles, making strides in progress, and seeing the dawn of a brighter future ahead.

According to General Administration of Customs data, China's automobile exports surpassed 2 million and 3 million units consecutively in 2021 and 2022, respectively, and leaped over two million-unit milestones in 2023, reaching 5.221 million units, an increase of 57.4% year-on-year. Notably, one out of every three cars exported in 2023 was an electric passenger car, totaling 1.773 million units, an increase of 67.1%.

However, judging from domestic car consumption patterns, China's car consumption has surpassed moderation and exhibits signs of overconsumption when measured against standards of moderation and simplicity. This can be inferred from the following macroeconomic statistics.

Today, China's total population accounts for roughly 18% of the world's total, yet its car ownership accounts for about 21% of the global total – according to the Ministry of Public Security, there were 336 million cars in China in 2023. This means that China has surpassed the global average in terms of per capita car ownership.

Currently, the global car ownership per thousand people is approximately 190 vehicles, while China has exceeded 230 vehicles per thousand people. China's annual car sales account for about 30% of the world's total, which will drive a significant increase in China's car ownership in the future, with annual growth rates significantly higher than the global average.

For many years, many in the industry have promoted the idea that the degree of car ownership in various countries is correlated with economic development levels worldwide, i.e., the more developed the economy, the higher the degree of car ownership. Meanwhile, many in the industry also agree that the amount of GDP, to a certain extent, can judge a country's economic development level (or degree of affluence).

However, the aforementioned macroeconomic statistics show that China's car ownership level (or car consumption) does not (or to a considerable extent, does not) follow this so-called regular pattern. In 2023, China's economic output accounted for about 17% of the world's total, with per capita GDP slightly below the global average. Nevertheless, China's annual car sales accounted for about 30% of the world's total, standing out prominently. Overall, for some regions and individuals, car consumption is no longer a rigid demand but appears excessive and unmatched with the country's overall economic and social development.

Some people acknowledge that China's average car ownership per thousand people is higher than the global average but emphasize that this figure is still much lower than that of developed countries, especially the United States, arguing that there is significant room for growth in China's car market sales.

While this may appear true at first glance, a deeper analysis reveals a vastly different reality.

China has a vast territory with vastly different natural conditions across regions, leading to uneven population distribution and significant differences in economic and social development levels. A significant portion of the population is concentrated in relatively narrow areas. Hu Huanyong, a modern geographer, discovered a roughly regular phenomenon through years of field research and in-depth study, which he described using the Heihe-Tengchong Line (later known as the Hu Line): approximately 36% of China's land supports about 96% of its population in the southeast of this line, while approximately 64% of the land in the northwest supports only 4% of the population.

The Hu Line theory has been around for 80 to 90 years since its proposal in 1935. According to relevant research, the current usage and distribution of cars in China roughly correspond to the phenomenon described by the Hu Line, with over 70% of China's population concentrated in about 20% of its land area, where approximately 76% of the country's cars are also concentrated. Calculating car ownership based on this situation provides a more objective reality.

As mentioned earlier, the global car ownership per thousand people is approximately 190 vehicles, while China has exceeded 230 vehicles per thousand, already significantly exceeding the global average. Moreover, if we conduct statistics based on the Hu Line theory, the car ownership per thousand people in southeastern coastal regions (especially the Yangtze River Delta, Pearl River Delta, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, etc.) has already reached or even exceeded 300 vehicles, with some large cities reaching 400 or more vehicles. In many towns and cities, over 70% of households own one or two cars, positioning them among developed countries in terms of car ownership per thousand people.

For example, while South Korea has approximately 400 cars per thousand people, Seoul only has about 300. The Tokyo metropolitan area in Japan also has approximately 400 cars per thousand people. In contrast, some large Chinese cities, such as Suzhou, have over 450 cars per thousand people, while Shenzhen has over 300.

Don't blindly compare car ownership rates

Former Minister of Industry and Information Technology Li Yizhong pointed out at a forum in 2022 that while there is still some room for growth in China's car market, the country should not compete with developed countries in terms of car ownership per thousand people. The author strongly agrees with this suggestion. After decades of observation, the author has noticed an intriguing and perplexing phenomenon: those who claim that China's car market has unlimited growth potential are rarely Chinese but often foreign multinational automotive giants. Does this mean that so-called foreign authorities understand China better than local Chinese experts and scholars? This deserves deep reflection among Chinese people.

Why shouldn't China compete with some developed countries in terms of car ownership per thousand people? There are at least two important reasons: first, the two are not comparable, and China does not have the objective conditions to match them in this indicator; second, and most importantly, China has no need to pursue the same high level of car ownership per thousand people as developed countries.

Let's discuss the first reason – China is not comparable to other countries.

Developing automotive transportation requires a significant amount of land and space. Based on the full lifecycle of a car, including raw materials, components, vehicle production, road construction, parking spaces, and a range of supporting facilities and services across the entire industry chain, China's 336 million cars roughly require 5 million square kilometers of land.

Because China's rapid industrialization process has continued for decades, the degree of land development is very high. According to data released by relevant national departments, the land area available for industrial and urban construction in China in the future is less than 300,000 square kilometers (accounting for about 3% of the total national area). From this perspective, China has too much land resources for "traveling"; the ceiling of the automobile market capacity has already been reached.

To make people more clearly see the real situation of China's crowded land area, in addition to adopting the indicator of car ownership per thousand people, it is more necessary to introduce an indicator that can evaluate the density of cars in the land area, that is, the number of cars per square kilometer of land area suitable for car use, with the unit of vehicles/square kilometer.

In terms of the indicator of car ownership per thousand people, some people in China not only prefer to compare with developed countries but often compare with the United States, claiming that its car ownership per thousand people is about 800, almost four times that of China. However, people who make such comparisons ignore a fact: the total number of cars in the United States is about 280 million, but the total population of the United States is only one-fifth of China's. Therefore, it is not surprising that there is a huge difference in car ownership per thousand people between the two countries.

If judged by the indicator of car density in the land area, China's indicator is about three times higher than that of the United States, as the natural geographical conditions of the two countries are very different. Although the total land area of China and the United States is roughly the same, less than half of China's land area is available for use, and the fragile ecological environment accounts for more than 50% of the country's area. The United States is completely different, and can even be said to be uniquely endowed by nature. About 60% of its land area is plains, with a vast area available for use, much more than China.

According to rough statistics, China's population is more than four times that of the United States, and China's per capita land area is less than one-fourth of that of the United States. China's per capita cultivated land is even less than one-eighth of that of the United States. Based on this, to calculate the number of cars per square kilometer (applicable) land area, i.e., the car density in the land area, there is a three-fold difference between China and the United States. At this stage, China's overall land car density is roughly 120 vehicles per square kilometer, while the United States has only about 40 vehicles per square kilometer. No wonder in that country, people feel very spacious when they are in the vast urban and rural areas, even though almost everyone and every family has a car.

If we look deeper into developed regions and large cities in China, we can find that the land car density in these places is much higher than the national average. According to rough statistics in recent years, the land car density in the Yangtze River Delta is about 220 vehicles per square kilometer, the Pearl River Delta is about 340, the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region is about 280, Shanghai is about 520, Guangzhou is about 350, and Wuhan is about 300. Shenzhen is even more amazing, with about 1,400 cars per square kilometer, which corresponds to the city's highest population density in the country (about 7,000 people per square kilometer). If people are in the above-mentioned cities, they will feel very crowded, which is actually the inevitable result of gathering too many residents and cars.

In fact, there is no need for China to pursue the same high car ownership rate as developed countries. There are two reasons: First, in addition to cars, China has a variety of advanced and developed transportation options to choose from, which can fully meet people's needs for convenient and fast travel with an appropriate number of cars; second, the rise and development of the sharing economy, especially the popularization and promotion of shared cars, can improve the efficiency of social car use and meet people's travel needs by car without increasing or even reducing the number of private cars.

The rapid car popularization process and high popularization rate in many Western developed countries mostly occurred in the early or mid-20th century, nearly a century or decades ago. At that time, the economy, society, and technology were far less developed than they are today, and there were limited transportation options besides cars that people could freely choose for convenient and fast travel.

However, in the modern era, not only are traditional transportation technologies more advanced and services more thoughtful, but other types of transportation have also emerged, diversifying people's travel modes. For example, China has a very developed and dense civil aviation route network and a unique high-speed rail system in the world, making people's travel comfortable and smooth. In many cities, modern subway lines are densely distributed, becoming the main transportation dependence for people commuting to work and running errands. China's many modern transportation options complement each other's strengths and weaknesses, play to their respective strengths, and play the most appropriate roles in people's travel.

From this perspective, China can fully achieve highly convenient and fast travel with a relatively low car ownership per thousand people (compared with some developed countries).

"15-Minute City" Slow Travel

Perhaps many people will say that the United States has many cars and the highest popularization rate in the world. However, few people know that the once-thriving railway transportation in the country has long been declining, and the existing lines are sparse, making them unreliable for people to travel. For long-distance travel, besides airplanes, only cars are left. Eventually, the country has formed an economic and social structure that is "car-centric" and "dominated by cars."

Now it seems that this is not a desirable blessing but rather a helplessness. In many towns and cities in the United States, public transportation is incomplete and inadequate. Even if there are bus routes, the frequency is very low, and it takes a long time to wait for a bus. Many Chinese visitors who come here to visit relatives lament that it is difficult to get around without a private car in the United States.

Many insightful people in the United States are also reflecting on this unreasonable transportation structure as a major mistake. In November 2011, a professor from the Department of Urban Planning at the University of Illinois in the United States sincerely suggested at an international forum held in a city in China that China should not follow the detour of US urban development that is "car-centric." Not only have people in the United States reflected on this unreasonable travel mode, but for many years, many developed Western countries have begun to take practical actions to "correct" it.

In recent years, the Western automobile markets in Europe, the United States, and Japan have been sluggish, with weak production and sales, either showing very small growth or even significant declines. Only China is an exception, with production and sales consistently ranking first in the world year after year.

Admittedly, the slight growth or even decline in automobile production and sales in the West is partly due to the overall economic downturn. However, an in-depth analysis reveals a more obvious trend: an increasing number of people, especially the younger generation, no longer favor private cars for travel. Especially in urban areas, many people turn to slow transportation (walking or cycling). If they need to use a car, they often choose a shared (networked) car. Relevant research institutions point out that for some time, there has been a very obvious weakening tendency among young people in Europe, the United States, and Japan (regions) to own and buy private cars.

According to reports, in 1977, a relevant US agency stated that owning a car was "almost essential" for people living in the United States. In 1977, 43% of 16-year-olds in the country had driver's licenses, but by 2020, this figure had dropped to 25%. It's not just teenagers; among young adults aged 20 to 24, one in five does not have a driver's license, and the proportion of people with driver's licenses in all age groups under 40 is also declining. Even those with driver's licenses are driving less.

A similar trend is also occurring in Europe. In the United Kingdom over the past 20 years, the proportion of teenagers driving has almost halved, from 41% to 21%. Regarding the clear trend of many young people in the West, including Japan, being less willing to buy private cars, Akio Toyoda, former president of Toyota Motor Corporation, exclaimed that this will profoundly affect the global automotive industry, and the transformation of auto companies is imperative.

Currently, the concept of a so-called "15-Minute City" is very popular worldwide and highly regarded by people (especially environmentalists), which means that urban residents can achieve all their travel purposes, such as shopping, entertainment, going to work, and going to school, by "slow travel" means such as walking or cycling, thereby reducing the number of cars, providing more space for cyclists and pedestrians, making cities more sustainable, livable, and beneficial to people's physical and mental health.

This requires putting residents and their needs at the forefront of urban planning and conducting "people-oriented design." According to relevant research, cities that invest in the development of bicycle lanes, sidewalks, public transportation, and green spaces are also more attractive to tourism and tourists; slow transportation such as cycling and walking can save cities money by reducing expenses on road maintenance and public health departments.

The European Cyclists' Federation claims that cycling generates more than 90 billion euros in economic benefits for society as a whole each year in the European Union alone. In contrast, the negative impact of motor vehicle traffic on people's health and living environment and the cost of infrastructure will exceed 800 billion euros per year.

It is reported that the United Nations also highly appreciates this concept of the "15-Minute City" and advocates that people should choose bicycles for short-distance travel. On March 15, 2022, the United Nations General Assembly adopted a resolution calling for the global promotion of the use of bicycles and supporting the use of bicycles as a means of addressing climate change. The resolution states that bicycles should be integrated into public transportation systems in urban and rural areas of both developing and developed countries; and that cycling should be given special attention in countries' "cross-sectoral development strategies, including bike-sharing services."

Paris, France, is one of the pioneers in implementing the concept of the "15-Minute City" in Europe. The core content of the city's plan is to use schools as the center of each urban area. In addition, half of its original 140,000 car parking spaces will be transformed into green spaces, sports fields, community activity centers, and bicycle parking areas. By 2026, all streets in Paris will be suitable for cycling.

At the end of April 2023, the city announced that it would strictly limit the passage of motor vehicles, including cars, in the downtown area to make way for cyclists and pedestrians. The mayor of the city said that new traffic rules were being formulated to strengthen the courtesy between motor vehicle drivers, cyclists, and pedestrians. Half of the passing vehicles, which currently account for half of the traffic volume, will not be allowed to enter the downtown area of Paris.

This move by Paris will cause a demonstration and chain effect in European countries. Some practices in Milan, Italy, are similar to those in Paris. In early 2022, the city decided to hand over some car spaces to bicycles. To this end, the city plans to build Europe's largest bicycle lane network, with a total length of 750 kilometers, consisting of 24 routes, scheduled for completion in 2035. The total investment for this project is 225 million euros, with the hope of surpassing Paris, which has planned 680 kilometers of bicycle lanes.

In 2018, after many years, the author went to several European countries for research and observation again and compared the social situation before and after. What I saw and heard fully confirmed the above trend. Near the railway stations and government office facilities in several national capital cities, many large multi-story bicycle parking sheds were seen, with automated access and storage operations, making it very convenient. This is a sight I have never seen before during my work in many places in Europe in the 1980s, 1990s, and early 2000s. It is said that about one-quarter of urban travel in Finland currently relies on walking, and one-quarter on cycling.

There is also something that has not been seen in China so far. At the time, when the author was on an intercontinental train in Germany, he saw some people who wanted to take the train cycling straight to the train, pushing their bikes into the carriage, and parking them in a designated storage area. Upon arrival, they pushed the bikes out and rode away from the train station immediately. According to relevant information, to encourage and motivate people to prioritize cycling for short-distance travel and cycling tours during vacations, the practice of setting up bicycle carriages on trains is quite common in European countries.

The Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport, and Tourism of Japan has formulated relevant guidelines to encourage the establishment of "bicycle carriages" and "bicycle buses" so that bicycles can be brought into carriages without being dismantled or folded. The guidelines emphasize that combining trams, buses, and bicycles not only expands the mobility of passengers but also increases passenger traffic in the transportation system, benefiting both passengers and operators.

Since Shima Electric Railway in Gunma Prefecture, Japan, opened a bicycle carriage in 2003, the number of passengers traveling with bicycles has continued to increase, exceeding 40,000 in 2020. In addition to sightseeing tours, this also provides convenience for local residents to go shopping. From June to September 2022, Soya Bus in Hokkaido allowed passengers to bring bicycles on some routes, attracting tourists to "check in."

Of course, there is no doubt about the advantages and benefits of exclusive private cars for individual consumers. However, from the perspective of the entire social application market, one of its biggest drawbacks is its low utilization rate and underutilization of resources.

According to relevant research, private cars used primarily for commuting are not used for 80% to 90% of the day, with a utilization rate of less than 20%. Just in terms of the mechanical engineering characteristics of vehicles, rare operation is not beneficial to maintaining normal performance of the machine itself. Of course, more importantly, it is not beneficial to the entire society. Cars are high-end durable goods that consume many non-renewable valuable resources and a series of complex processes in society and are composed of tens of thousands of parts. However, failing to give full play to their inherent efficiency is not only lamentable but also a significant waste.

Even when these private cars are in operation, their effective utilization rate is generally low. This is because the vehicles are often not full, and in most cases, only the driver is alone. Private cars are mostly medium-sized ordinary models, weighing at least one ton. If only one person is carried, the effective load is less than 100 kilograms. This means that a car consuming a lot of fuel is basically driving empty, which is similar to a commercial passenger plane flying in the sky with no passengers but only crew members. Apart from wasting energy, the exhaust gas and carbon dioxide emitted by the machine also harm the ecological environment.

In response to the above two drawbacks and negative effects of private cars, "shared cars" (including the popular "carpooling" and "ride-sharing" in foreign countries) based on the concept of economic savings are an effective solution, which can not only meet people's commuting needs but also greatly improve the effective utilization rate of vehicles, reducing or even avoiding unnecessary waste.

Relevant research shows that if one shared car is put into use in society, it can replace more than ten private cars in use, theoretically reducing more than ten car purchases in society. Ultimately, this reflects a corresponding decrease in sales and total car ownership in the entire automobile market. More importantly, it does not affect people's travel convenience. For those who have not purchased private cars, it not only saves a considerable amount of money but also eliminates a series of troubles and burdens of car maintenance.

However, facts have proven that shared cars failed in China before. Now, people pin their hopes on driverless autonomous driving technology for shared cars, but it is unclear when it will be realized.