Android manufacturers shouldn't get too excited yet.

As of the first weekend after its launch, pre-orders for the new model reached 37 million units, an excellent performance for any flagship phone, but far from satisfactory for Apple. According to supply chain reports, Apple had prepared 88 million units of the iPhone 16 series at the beginning of the month, and the first-weekend sales of only 37 million units were clearly unsatisfactory to Apple.

Famous analyst Ming-Chi Kuo stated that the first-weekend sales of the iPhone 16 were 12.7% lower than those of the iPhone 15 series, with demand falling short of expectations being the main reason for the missed sales target. The shipping time of the iPhone 16 series was also delayed compared to the iPhone 15 series, adversely affecting sales.

Kuo summarized some reasons for the poor sales of the iPhone 16 series, but at its core, consumers are being more rational and even somewhat disinterested in the iPhone 16 series. The root cause of this mindset lies in the specifications and features of the iPhone 16 series.

Lack of innovation, Apple's advantage fades?

Since the passing of Steve Jobs, there have been numerous criticisms online that Apple has 'lost its innovative spirit,' with Jobs being hailed as an 'artist' and Tim Cook merely a competent 'businessman.' After the release of the iPhone 16, industry figures like Luo Yonghao and Jia Yueting also voiced their opinions, believing that Apple has lost its innovative abilities and become a mediocre company.

Bloomberg journalist Mark Gurman reported that while Apple is in good shape in various aspects, its innovation capability has significantly declined, and it is not expected to produce anything that changes the 'game rules' until around 2027.

Has Apple lost its leadership position? Looking solely at flagship sales, Apple remains the dominant player in the high-end market, with no other brand able to compete. However, in terms of product experience, Android and HarmonyOS manufacturers are catching up fast, with their flagship products offering experiences on par with Apple's. Instead, Apple and Android phone manufacturers have formed a mutual learning relationship, with many netizens discussing the topic 'Apple becomes Android' on Weibo. The Photos app in iOS 18 has received numerous complaints, with the hashtag '#BringBackMyMom'sPhotoAlbum' garnering over 45 million views.

(Image source: Weibo screenshot)

The lack of innovation and the absence of revolutionary changes in the iPhone 16 series' features are the primary reasons for its underwhelming initial sales. More crucially, the few significant upgrades in the iPhone 16 series – Apple Intelligence – have not yet been implemented.

In today's AI technology frenzy, Apple is no exception, with the iPhone 16 series equipped with the A18 chip to facilitate the rapid adoption of Apple Intelligence. Apple Intelligence can integrate with OpenAI, enabling Siri to more naturally interpret human language and assist users in tasks across iPhone, Mac, iPad, and other devices.

(Image source: Apple's official website)

Furthermore, based on Apple Intelligence, the iPhone can more flexibly assist users in handling documents, voice recordings, videos, and other files. Due to chip performance limitations, only the iPhone 15 Pro/15 Pro Max and the iPhone 16 series support Apple Intelligence functions. However, the iPhone 16 series lacked this feature at launch, and Apple Intelligence is expected to be available in October.

The fact that the iPhone 16 series did not launch with Apple Intelligence reflects a weakening in Apple's technological research and development capabilities and insufficient preparation for the series. The lack of immediate availability of the core competitiveness, Apple Intelligence, has inevitably caused some potential iPhone 16 series buyers to hold off their purchases, thereby affecting new device sales.

On the other hand, Android flagships have continued to grow, offering experiences comparable to those of iPhones but at significantly lower prices. Apart from some HarmonyOS flagship phones, flagship models from OPPO, vivo, Xiaomi, Honor, and other brands generally cost around 8,000 yuan, which is comparable to the starting price of the iPhone 16 Pro. At this price point, one can purchase a 16GB+1TB Android flagship but only a 128GB iPhone 16 Pro.

These various factors have led consumers to be more rational when choosing the iPhone 16 series, resulting in initial sales falling short of expectations. However, we should not underestimate Apple; initial sales data that fail to meet expectations do not necessarily indicate that the iPhone 16 series' final sales will lag behind those of the iPhone 15 series.

Not for a moment, but for a lifetime with the iPhone 16

In terms of hardware configuration alone, the upgrades in the iPhone 16 series are not insignificant, possibly the most significant since the advent of 5G. The iPhone 16 series comes standard with the Dynamic Island, improved screen-to-body ratio, upgraded charging power to 45W, and a 48-megapixel ultra-wide-angle lens.

In terms of performance, the iPhone 16 series' standard and Plus versions no longer use the previous-generation chip but have been upgraded to the A18 chip, significantly boosting AI performance and preparing for the arrival of Apple Intelligence. The entire iOS 18 system has also undergone significant changes, and while some users have criticized its Photos app, overall, iOS 18 is more user-friendly.

(Image source: Apple's official website)

Regarding the lack of innovation, how many major innovations have there been in the mobile phone industry in recent years? It's mostly hardware upgrades year after year, followed by the exploration of new designs like foldable screens. Features like photo editing and text recognition, which other companies have been promoting, have been available on iPhones for years. It is evident that the entire mobile phone industry has hit a bottleneck, with limited functional upgrades and breakthroughs.

Even the heavily promoted AI Agent by various phone manufacturers is still uncertain in terms of how much it can actually enhance users' experiences. AI Agent represents one of the biggest changes in the mobile phone industry in recent years, and Apple Intelligence, with a similar concept, could become one of the core competitive advantages of future iPhones.

Earlier, Reuters reported that after abandoning its automotive business, Apple transferred many employees to its AI department to vigorously promote generative AI technology research and development. After investing approximately $10 billion in its automotive endeavors over a decade, Apple's financial strength is evident, and generative AI is poised for growth with increased human resources.

Of course, many people still question whether Apple Intelligence represents a groundbreaking innovation from scratch. Many of the functions it supports can also be achieved by other phones and generative AI software. In the AI field, Apple did not start early, making it difficult to achieve a breakthrough from scratch.

(Image source: Apple's official website)

After suffering a $10 billion loss in its automotive venture, Apple reluctantly abandoned the project. While the Apple Vision Pro generated significant buzz initially, it gradually faded into obscurity. For today's Apple, the focus is no longer on leading industry development but on refining functions and experiences from 1 to 100.

With diminished innovation capabilities, Apple can no longer rely on novel features for short-term success. Instead, it must leverage its substantial technological and financial resources to refine new features and outcompete rivals in terms of user experience for long-term victory. While Apple Intelligence is not yet available, Apple should roll out OTA updates within a month of the iPhone 16 series' launch, enabling the feature on the iPhone 15 Pro/15 Pro Max and iPhone 16 series.

With the support of Apple Intelligence, I believe that although the iPhone 16 series' initial sales figures may not be impressive, its lifetime sales figures are likely to surpass those of the iPhone 15 series.

The storm abates, and Apple remains the champion

While the current reviews and initial sales figures of the iPhone 16 series are unimpressive, and even social media buzz seems muted compared to previous generations, the fervor surrounding pre-orders on various e-commerce platforms indicates that this iPhone generation still carries much hope. For instance, Ele.me, which supports online purchases of the iPhone 16 series at launch, can deliver the phones to consumers within 30 minutes, offering interest-free installments that significantly reduce waiting times and enhance the purchasing experience. With increasingly competitive services, it's hard not to be optimistic about the iPhone 16 series' subsequent sales.

In the second quarter of this year, despite positive trends in the global smartphone market and sales increases for brands like Xiaomi, vivo, and Samsung, Apple's sales slightly declined, even falling out of the top five in the domestic market, shaking its influence and position. The decline in iPhone sales stems from multiple factors, including the launch of the iPhone 16 series, price reductions for the iPhone 15 series, and the possible release of the iPhone SE4 next year, all of which could contribute to iPhone sales growth.

More importantly, the upcoming Double 11, one of China's two major shopping festivals, followed by the slightly smaller Double 12, could be significant opportunities for Apple. While the iPhone 16 series starting at 5,999 yuan may not impress some consumers, potential price drops of 500 to 1,000 yuan or more during these festivals could pique the interest of many more.

(Image source: Apple's official website)

While Apple's share in the fiercely competitive domestic market has slightly declined, its position in overseas markets remains unshakeable. With the implementation of Apple Intelligence, the inclusion of the iPhone 16 series in e-commerce platforms' 'Billion Subsidy' programs, and the upcoming Double 11 and Double 12 shopping festivals, the iPhone 16 series is expected to experience a surge in sales.

Amidst the turmoil and uncertainty, Apple is still likely to emerge as the domestic and global smartphone sales champion in the fourth quarter.

Source: Lei Technology