The year 2024 has drawn to a close. While the comprehensive annual data for 2024 is still being compiled, Q4 data focusing on activations during the quarter has already been released by several institutions.

Theoretically, activation volume offers a more accurate reflection of market performance than shipment volume. Shipment volume merely indicates the number of units dispatched to distributors, which may not translate into actual sales. In contrast, activation volume signifies the number of phones that have been activated by consumers, thus representing true sales figures.

As illustrated in the above chart, the Q4 activation volumes rank Huawei, Xiaomi, Apple, VIVO, and Honor as the top five players, collectively accounting for approximately 81% of all activations. This leaves only 19% for other brands, highlighting a high degree of market concentration.

In terms of growth, Huawei leads the pack with a 14.1% increase, followed by VIVO with an 11.6% uptick. Xiaomi witnessed a more modest 5.3% rise, while Apple experienced the steepest decline of 17.4%. Honor also saw a drop of 13.4%, and OPPO, unfortunately, fell out of the top five, indicating a slight lag in its performance.

It's noteworthy that the numbers for the top five brands are relatively close, especially among the top three, with differences of less than 1 percentage point. In terms of actual activation volumes, the gap is approximately 500,000 units. The fourth and fifth positions lag slightly behind the top three, but the difference is minimal.

This underscores the intensely competitive nature of the market, where even a minor improvement in performance can propel a brand upwards, while a slight decline can result in a drop in rankings. It also indicates that the smartphones offered by these brands are fairly comparable in terms of features and appeal.

For those who have been tracking the data over the years, it's evident that Apple traditionally performs well in Q4, often ranking at the top. This is the quarter when Apple launches its new iPhones, typically driving sales. However, in 2024, Apple's performance was notably subpar. The iPhone 16 apparently didn't fare well in the Chinese market, as evidenced by its third-place ranking. Perhaps due to this disappointing performance, Apple has resorted to aggressive promotions, including official price cuts of up to 1000 yuan, with even steeper discounts from third-party sellers. Some high-end models have seen price drops exceeding 27%.