The government subsidy policy for 2025 has been officially unveiled.

Unlike the 2024 policy, this year's iteration explicitly includes subsidies for individual consumers purchasing mobile phones, tablets, and smartwatches/bracelets.

This shift has generated significant excitement, as previous subsidies primarily targeted household appliances and automobiles, with mobile phones excluded.

It is anticipated that this subsidy policy will significantly boost sales in the mobile phone and tablet markets.

So, who stands to gain the most from these subsidies? Based on the policy details, Xiaomi, OPPO, VIVO, and Honor are poised to benefit, whereas Apple and Huawei may experience some setbacks.

Why do we say this? The policy sets a ceiling of 6000 yuan per subsidized product, with a subsidy of 15% of the selling price, capped at 500 yuan per item.

This threshold of 6000 yuan is crucial. Among Apple's current offerings, only the 128GB iPhone 16, priced at 5999 yuan, qualifies for the subsidy. Older models and more expensive variants, particularly the popular Pro series, do not meet the criteria, limiting Apple's subsidy-driven sales potential.

Similarly, Huawei's flagship products, such as the Mate 70 and foldable phones like the Mate X, which cater to the high-end market, also face limitations. Only the entry-level Mate 70, priced below 6000 yuan, is eligible for the subsidy.

Conversely, Xiaomi, OPPO, VIVO, and Honor have a vast majority of their phone models priced below 6000 yuan, making them eligible for the subsidy. With their already competitive pricing and an additional 15% subsidy, these brands' cost-effectiveness increases significantly, positioning them as the main beneficiaries.

It's also plausible that, despite many high-end models from Apple and Huawei being ineligible for the subsidy, the surge in sales of subsidized brands may eventually prompt price reductions from Apple and Huawei as a strategic response.

Thus, even though Huawei and Apple do not directly receive the government subsidy, they might indirectly benefit by reducing prices, effectively achieving a similar outcome for consumers. Ultimately, consumers will be satisfied as long as they can purchase their desired models at a more affordable price, regardless of whether the subsidy comes from the manufacturer or the government.