New Direction or Pseudo Demand?

@NewEntropy Original Author丨Zhangdao Edited by丨Yiye

Although Zhang Yiming no longer serves as the CEO of ByteDance, his social dream remains alive. With the emergence of ChatGPT and the AI trend sweeping the global internet, ByteDance seems to have found a new direction to enter the social field - AI social.

Recently, an AI virtual dating chat product called "Xiaohuangjiao" has been launched. After verification, it was found that the product's business entity is Beijing Zhending Technology Co., Ltd. (Tomato Novels), and its actual controller is ByteDance.

Specifically, in "Xiaohuangjiao," the built-in virtual characters can not only send emojis but also voice messages and real-scene photos, which are relatively rare functions in other AI virtual companion products. In addition, unlike the traditional question-and-answer mode, the characters in "Xiaohuangjiao" will send multiple messages at once, communicating like real humans.

In fact, this is not the first time ByteDance has focused on AI social. In March this year, ByteDance launched the AI social app "Hualu" driven by the Lark large model and renamed it "Maoxiang" on April 11. The app was developed by the internal team Flow.

Flow is ByteDance's main development team for AI applications, coordinated by Zhu Jun, the former head of TikTok. Its members include senior executives such as Qi Junyuan, the former vice president of Feishu products, and Lu You, the former head of Douyin's social function. Before "Maoxiang," the Flow team had already developed and launched Doubao, an AI chat Q&A assistant.

Similar to "Xiaohuangjiao," "Maoxiang" also has strong entertainment and content attributes. When opening "Maoxiang," AI-generated character illustrations will randomly appear on the homepage. Then, the page will display introductions to the characters, stories, and opening lines. Users can type or voice input replies in the dialogue box below to engage in conversation with AI.

Currently, "Xiaohuangjiao" has just been launched, and its product performance is still unclear. However, "Maoxiang" has data available for observation. According to the "China AI Companion May User Data Report" released by QuantumBit Intelligence: in terms of total downloads, the market exhibits a clear head concentration effect, with products with strong interaction and strong IP showing significant advantages. As of May 2024, X Eva has a total of 12.4 million downloads, ranking first and becoming the only product with over 10 million downloads. Xingye ranks second with 8.9 million total downloads. The third and fourth places are occupied by Caiyun Xiaomeng and I'm in AI, respectively, with downloads of over 3 million each. There is not much difference between the products ranked after that, and their market positions are relatively close, with "Maoxiang" ranking fifth.

However, in terms of user growth and user activity, "Maoxiang" performed exceptionally well. Its monthly growth reached 300,000, ranking third in the market. In terms of user activity, "Maoxiang" has a DAU of 28,000. Although the total number of downloads is relatively low, it can maintain a good level of activity.

Currently, both "Xiaohuangjiao" and "Maoxiang" are catering to users' demand for highly realistic virtual social experiences. Virtual avatars and high-fidelity conversations undoubtedly bring short-term freshness and enhanced experiences, but they cannot conceal several core issues.

AI social products may be attractive to niche groups, especially those interested in technology or eager for novel experiences. However, the novelty wears off over time.

Taking "Maoxiang" as an example, although the AI characters have distinct characteristics at first glance, the conversations gradually reveal a mechanized repetitiveness, lacking the complexity and unpredictability of real human communication. Prolonged interactions may tire users.

Secondly, as the user base expands, issues of universal demand will emerge. Most users still value real interaction and emotional connection in their social needs, and it remains unclear whether AI-generated virtual interactions can meet this demand.

Moreover, the intensity of market competition cannot be ignored. From Meta's virtual social platform abroad to various domestic social applications, the diversification of social products and user selectivity make it difficult for new products to maintain user stickiness for a long time. Especially with the low threshold for technological imitation, products similar to "Xiaohuangjiao" may be quickly replicated or surpassed by other competitors.

From a corporate strategic perspective, ByteDance's attempt at AI social once again through "Xiaohuangjiao" demonstrates its unwavering commitment to social media.

However, in this process, it needs to maintain a clear understanding, recognizing both the possibilities brought by technology and the diversity of user needs and the cruelty of market competition.