According to Huawei, "building the HarmonyOS operating system is a three-part battle. We have already completed the foundation and user experience battles, and the third battle is the ecosystem." While the ecosystem is undoubtedly crucial, for HarmonyOS to compete with today's mainstream operating systems and even become a leader among the new generation of OSes, there are still many battles to be fought.

The rise of AI and IoT has given HarmonyOS an opportunity to overtake its competitors, but it is also fraught with unknowns. At present, HarmonyOS has entered a "no man's land." Whether it can successfully traverse this territory or get stuck remains to be seen. Clearly, the more arduous battles lie ahead.

01

'The Fourth Largest Operating System Globally'

HarmonyOS has reached a new critical juncture. To accelerate the integration of mobile applications into the HarmonyOS ecosystem, heavyweight partners including DingTalk, Alipay, Tencent, Baidu, Meituan, JD.com, and more attended the HarmonyOS Thousand Sails Mobilization Conference held at the end of last month. Meanwhile, HarmonyOS NEXT, a 'pure-blooded' version of HarmonyOS that is no longer compatible with Android applications, began its public beta on October 8th.

Since the launch of HarmonyOS in August 2019, more than five years have passed. As Huawei's strategic product, HarmonyOS has undergone four significant version iterations. During this process, considering user experience and reducing development costs, Huawei chose to make HarmonyOS compatible with Android applications. However, this decision sparked widespread controversy about 'Android skinning.'

It wasn't until June of this year that the official release of the 'pure-blooded' HarmonyOS, which is no longer compatible with Android applications, silenced the controversy while marking a crucial step forward for the development of HarmonyOS.

'It can be said that the breakthrough brought about by 'pure-blooded' HarmonyOS is a milestone for Huawei and even the entire Chinese IT industry,' a senior industry research expert told the author. In the past, many domestic manufacturers' operating systems bore the shadow of Android, but HarmonyOS has completely broken free from its constraints and limitations.

'Most importantly, HarmonyOS, which is fully self-developed, adopts a 'three-pronged' combination model of 'operating system + hardware terminal + service platform,' closely integrating cloud, AI, and mobile internet while continuously expanding its ecosystem. Its development prospects are extremely broad.'

According to Tianyancha APP, the number of HarmonyOS ecosystem devices currently exceeds 900 million. Over 10,000 applications and meta-services have been listed on the HarmonyOS NEXT app market, covering 18 major fields. The future goal is to have 500,000 native applications. Additionally, more than 470 SDKs are being adapted for native HarmonyOS, with 2.54 million developers and 82.7 billion monthly service calls by developers.

According to the latest data from research firm Counterpoint Research, in the first quarter of this year, HarmonyOS's global market share exceeded 4%. In the domestic market, thanks to the popularity of Huawei's flagship products, HarmonyOS surpassed iOS for the first time to become the second-largest operating system, with its market share growing from 8% in the first quarter of 2023 to 17% in the first quarter of this year.

The above expert believes that based on specific data such as the number of HarmonyOS applications, user base, partners, and market share, although there is still a significant gap between HarmonyOS and iOS and Android, HarmonyOS has initially possessed various important factors necessary for a successful operating system. 'It is poised to become the fourth-largest operating system globally, following Apple's iOS, Google's Android, and Microsoft's Windows.'

HarmonyOS's rapid rise is the result of a combination of internal and external factors driving Huawei forward.

Firstly, Huawei has a deep foundation in the ICT industry, enabling it to develop core hardware and software in-house. According to reports, HarmonyOS has achieved full-stack in-house development, encompassing the operating system kernel, file system, programming language, compiler/runtime, programming framework, design system, integrated development environment, AI framework, and large models.

Secondly, Huawei has deeply cultivated the industrial IoT and intensively deployed IoT solutions. HarmonyOS's origins can be traced back to the IoT boom nearly a decade ago, when Huawei launched LiteOS, the precursor to HarmonyOS. Today, centered around HarmonyOS, Huawei has formed a '1+8+N' all-scenario strategy, covering Huawei's self-developed products such as smartphones, tablets, smartwatches, and smart screens, as well as IoT products from ecological partners.

Thirdly, Huawei has continuously built and expanded HMS (Huawei Mobile Services). Beyond the hardware ecosystem of '1+8+N,' HMS, Huawei's all-scenario intelligent solution, aims to provide developers with one-stop mobile application development services. Through HMS, developers can access the entire development, distribution, and operational growth chain.

From an external perspective, several factors have driven HarmonyOS's development. Firstly, the United States' recent technological blockade against China has heightened the demand for China to develop independent innovative technologies. At the national level, several policies have been issued in recent years to accelerate the development of key hardware and software. As the middleware layer coordinating hardware and software, the operating system holds a strategic position.

Secondly, with the continuous growth of cloud services, the integration of cloud, edge, and terminal has become an industry trend. In this context, applications have higher requirements for cross-device support. Continuing with previous architectures and development models would make it difficult to achieve proper adaptation and management, becoming a significant factor driving the reconstruction of operating system infrastructure.

Thirdly, the massive demand from various terminals has led to the proliferation of various operating systems globally, making it challenging to integrate capabilities and quickly connect different terminals. With the advent of AI and the Internet of Everything era, a new and secure operating system with scalability, cross-platform compatibility, and low costs has become a new demand.

02

The Unknown Journey in the 'No Man's Land'

If we look back at the history of technological development, we can see that HarmonyOS is a product of the continuous evolution of operating systems. In the mid-1980s, Microsoft introduced Windows 1.0 based on MS-DOS, featuring a graphical user interface that allowed users to operate through a mouse.

Starting in the 1990s, with the rise of the PC internet, Windows continued to iterate and upgrade, gradually dominating the market. This can be considered the first generation of mainstream operating systems.

From 2000 onwards, feature phones gained popularity, with the world's first Symbian-based phone officially launched that year. By 2006, there were over 100 million Symbian-powered phones globally.

Since the emergence of smartphones in 2007, iOS and Android have surged, sparking a global consumer trend that continues today, with the two operating systems dominating the market. These can be collectively referred to as the second generation of mainstream operating systems.

According to Transforma Insights, a renowned IoT market research firm, by the end of 2023, the number of global IoT connections exceeded 16 billion. It is predicted that the number of IoT connections will continue to grow over the next ten years, reaching 40 billion by 2033, with a compound annual growth rate of 9.6%. The global market for IoT connections, modules, and services will reach $934 billion.

This means that in the era of AI and IoT, connected devices are no longer limited to smartphones and tablets. A massive number of new devices and users will generate new demands, and the vast market is eagerly awaiting the emergence of a new generation of operating systems. It is therefore not surprising that HarmonyOS, billed as the 'new generation of multi-terminal intelligent operating system,' is highly anticipated.

However, compared to the previous two generations of operating systems, HarmonyOS faces more unknowns, having entered a 'no man's land' for three reasons:

Firstly, historical experience shows that Microsoft attempted to port Windows to mobile devices, and Symbian struggled to capitalize on the immense business opportunities presented by mobile phones, but both failed. Apple's iOS, on the other hand, leveraged its ecosystem and hardware-software integration to form a strong competitive advantage in the mobile internet era. However, with diminishing consumer-end benefits, Apple has struggled with innovation and growth in the new AI and IoT era, leading to a weakening of its dominant position. Google's Android has been a huge success, but its Fuchsia OS, designed for multiple devices and scenarios, has remained relatively unknown.

This suggests that the rise and fall of the first and second generations of operating systems are limited by the times and industrial development, making it difficult to provide sufficient value references for HarmonyOS.

Secondly, from the perspective of HarmonyOS's positioning and nature, it is designed for the IoT and is not limited to smartphones and tablets as its primary arenas. With its open-source and self-use characteristics, it can bridge various devices, essentially serving as a hybrid of 'Apple iOS + Google Android + Google Fuchsia OS.'

Such a product has no mature examples to draw upon globally, and with AI and IoT still in their early stages of development, the operating system landscape is fragmented, leading to more fragmented terminals. The prospects facing HarmonyOS are blurrier and more complex than those of previous generations of operating systems, requiring continuous exploration. Whether this path will be viable remains uncertain.

Thirdly, from the perspective of operating system development trends, experts believe that the new generation of operating systems needs to embody two keywords: 'intelligence' and 'contextualization.' They must adapt to different contextual characteristics and achieve seamless integration of humans, machines, and objects through intelligent and automated means.

In terms of integrating large AI models with operating systems, all vendors are still in the exploratory stage. So-called intelligent services are often manifested only at the application layer, without delving into the core. HarmonyOS's advantage lies in its ability to collaborate with chips, clouds, and terminals. However, to create new high-value applications, it must delve deeper into the realm of intelligence, and it remains to be seen whether HarmonyOS can achieve this.

03

HarmonyOS's Long and Arduous Journey Through Challenges

In the 'no man's land,' HarmonyOS must not only confront an uncertain future but also continuously overcome challenges.

First Challenge: Mindset

To become the fourth-largest operating system globally, the most crucial factor for HarmonyOS is mindset. Looking at all successful operating systems, the foresight and insight of their creators are crucial. Technology companies need to stand at a certain height, possess unique and accurate judgments about industry development, future trends, and potential demands, and have the ability to discern the valuable from the mundane. Moreover, technology companies must dare to invest, compete, withstand failures, and possess the courage and perseverance to rise again.

Numerous examples illustrate this point. Google recognized the potential of Android in 2005 and acquired it, turning it into a trump card. Microsoft has had several costly failures, such as Windows Me, Windows Vista, and Windows Phone, but its relentless exploration and persistence have kept Windows standing tall. HarmonyOS's development requires a mindset and vision that poses even higher demands on Huawei.

Second Challenge: Ecosystem

Apple's App Store and Google's Android ecosystem boast millions of apps each, whereas the number of native HarmonyOS apps lags far behind. As a new generation of operating systems, HarmonyOS needs to expand its hardware and software ecosystem, attracting more developers and partners worldwide while facing the challenges of compatibility and adaptation. The pressure is immense.

In fact, establishing an ecosystem also requires new ideas. Beyond the technical ecosystem, the business cooperation ecosystem is even more crucial for HarmonyOS. How to collaborate with telecom operators, third-party service providers, and advertisers to establish new business models, demand insights, and user services is the key to the success of the HarmonyOS ecosystem.

Third Challenge: Going Global

The criterion for judging an operating system is simple: 'Not international, not successful.' The most widely used operating systems globally are all international. Therefore, for HarmonyOS to become a mainstream global operating system, its domestic application alone is insufficient; it must 'go global.'

However, Huawei's overseas products still run on EMUI, and the influence of the HarmonyOS brand on overseas users is still weak. Overseas users lack understanding of HarmonyOS, making it extremely challenging to expand overseas, gain their trust, and migrate them to the HarmonyOS ecosystem.

Fourth Challenge: User Experience

User experience is paramount for an operating system. Users participating in the HarmonyOS public beta have reported issues such as lags, crashes, unresponsive face recognition, and insensitive fingerprint unlocking. For Huawei, if application issues arise, they will affect product sales and the promotion of HarmonyOS.

Moreover, for partners investing human, financial, and material resources to join the HarmonyOS ecosystem, development and maintenance are required, but the benefits are still unclear. Therefore, many manufacturers remain cautious. Thus, the future performance, stability, and user experience of devices running HarmonyOS pose significant challenges.

04

Conclusion

People's feelings towards HarmonyOS are complex: a mixture of joy and concern. As China's first product poised to become a world-class operating system, HarmonyOS shoulders heavy responsibilities and carries numerous expectations. However, this path is far from smooth, fraught with obstacles and challenges.

Along this journey, many cautionary tales serve as reminders: Nokia's Symbian, HP's webOS, Microsoft's Windows Phone, Samsung's Tizen, BlackBerry OS – all were once the gambles and ambitions of industry giants. Yet, while the lessons are profound, they cannot provide HarmonyOS with the experience or resilience to withstand risks.

On this long journey, seeking solutions to overcome challenges requires courage and determination.

Best of luck to HarmonyOS.